Hogs
Price action: Hog futures continued struggling Thursday, with most-active June falling 37.5 cents to $96.175. Nearby April dropped 52.5 cents to $87.025.
Fundamental analysis: The hog and pork complex remained under seasonal pressure Thursday, with the wholesale market reversal from Wednesday’s midsession high seemingly spurring futures sales. That is, after having surged to $97.55 at Tuesday’s close, pork cutout followed through to $99.36 at midsession Wednesday. But, as has recently become so common in the market, the wholesale market reversed in afternoon trading, ending the day $1.90 lower at $95.65. This morning’s trade was decidedly mixed, with the net result being a 14-cent drop in cutout to $95.51. We continue expecting a seasonal upturn in early April as entities up and down the marketing chain start preparing for the onset of the spring grilling season.
The cash market in the form of the CME lean hog index has stabilized, with the latest official quote, for Monday, at $88.90 marking an 11-cent daily gain. Tuesday’s preliminary figure rose another 23 cents to $89.13, while Wednesday’s USDA data indicates the index for that day will be unchanged. The April hog contract, which will expire at noon on April 14, shows traders expect a cash market drop of about $2.00 in the interim. We are somewhat more optimistic.
On the other hand, recent selling may also have reflected this afternoon’s (2:00 pm CDT) looming release of the USDA’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. Traders expect it to indicate a significant hog industry move toward expansion, with spring and summer hog supplies expected to modestly exceed comparable year-ago levels. See Evening Report for the results.
Technical analysis: Bears still hold a modest short-term technical advantage, which largely reflects the market’s recent inability to challenge, much less overcome, pivotal resistance at the contract’s 40-day moving average near $99.58. Initial resistance was marked by today’s high at $96.30, which is closely backed by the contract’s 20- and 10-day moving averages near $96.66 and $96.78, respectively. On the other hand, look for significant psychological support at the $95.00 level, which was confirmed by today’s vigorous rebound from the daily low at $94.20. Conversely, a short-term failure at this latter level would have bears targeting the March 4 low of $92.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through April. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle rose $2.775 to $205.80 and near the daily high. May feeder cattle rose $1.35 to $286.525, near the daily high. The March feeder cattle contract went off the board 85 cents higher at $287.65
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets late this week are showing resilience after an early-week dip. Cash cattle and beef market fundamentals remain strong. Cattle market bulls today brushed aside a risk-off day in the general marketplace.
Cash cattle trading so far this week in the USDA five area region has seen 2,212 head come to market at an average price of $211.83, which is well above the $202.00 fetched at the same time last week. The noon report today showed Choice-grade boxed beef prices down 2 cents to $338.28, on a pause after hefty gains seen earlier this week. Select grade rose $2.89 to $319.42. Movement at midday was good at 77 loads. The Choice-Select spread narrowed today to $18.86.
USDA reported U.S. beef export sales of 8,000 MT for 2025, down 22% from the previous week and 43% from the four-week average.
World Weather Inc. today said “wildly swinging temperatures across the Great Plains will continue over the coming week with hot weather today and Friday and then freezing conditions during the early part of next week.” These conditions will continue stressing livestock, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close June futures above solid resistance at the contract high of $207.30. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $199.60. First resistance is seen at $207.30 and then at $208.00. First support is seen at $204.00 and then at $203.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close May futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $290.625. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $277.225. First resistance is seen at $288.00 and then at $289.00. First support is seen at $285.00 and then at $284.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through April. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.