Hogs
Price action: June lean hog futures inched 15 cents higher to $95.325 and marked a $1.775 gain on the week. Expiring April futures slid 57.5 cents to $85.425, weighed down by weaker cash prices.
5-day outlook: Hog futures ended the day mixed after trading within Thursday’s as traders continue to digest this week’s changes in trade policy. China ramping up tariffs on U.S. goods have effectively priced out anything the U.S. would export to China, including pork. That drop in demand has weighed heavily on hog futures this week and pushed pork cutout to fresh for-the-move lows mid-week.
Last week, we mentioned hog slaughter topping year ago figures likely being attributable to Easter being a little earlier last year. Hog slaughter continued to pace ahead of year-ago this week, with estimated weekly slaughter totaling 1.951 million head, up from both last week and year ago. That likely helps explain the recent weakness in the CME lean hog index, which is pushing to fresh lows. The index is down another 33 cents to $87.67 as of April 9, while the preliminary calculation puts the index down a whopping 81 cents to $86.86 on Monday. That weighed on April futures today. The April contract will go off the board on Monday at noon and will cash settle with the index quote for that date, released on Wednesday.
30-day outlook: With Easter right around the corner, grocers have likely completed their ham purchases for holiday specials. Though that demand has dried up, grocers are likely purchasing other cuts of pork, preparing features for the unofficial start of the grilling season after Easter. That can be corroborated with strong movement of pork the past couple of days. While pork cutout fell yesterday, movement totaled a strong 357.99 loads. Today’s figure will likely top that mark as movement totaled 285.69 at midsession. Pork prices rebounded this morning as well as cutout climbed $1.89 to $91.59 as all cuts except hams posted gains. Grilling demand is likely to continue to prove strong for pork which will be needed to offset recent weakness in hog futures. We still feel summer futures are overly pessimistic so barring a breakdown in pork demand, some strength is possible over the coming month.
90-day outlook: The anticipated return of summer grilling demand mentioned in the 30-day outlook will continue into the summer months. Both cash and futures continue to break down, drawing question to the seasonal spring rally. We remain more optimistic than the marketplace on that front as pork demand remains strong. That paired with hog slaughter falling to annual lows around Independence Day should support hog prices over the coming quarter. History suggests the market will peak around mid-to-late June, but the tariff situation makes seasonals somewhat obsolete.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through April. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle rose $1.60 to $196.80, nearer the daily high but on the week down $1.40. May feeder cattle futures gained $3.40 to $278.70, near the daily high and on the week up $3.825.
5-day outlook: Short covering was featured today in the cattle futures markets, following the recent price downdrafts. However, cash cattle and beef market fundamentals have eroded a bit this week. Cash cattle trade this week has been solidly lower so far, averaging around $207.50. That’s down about $4.00 from the average seen a week ago. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values mixed. Choice cutout rose 83 cents to $335.12 after a big slide Thursday, while Select fell 44 cents to $314.52 after also plunging Thursday. The Choice-Select spread is presently $20.60. Movement at midday was 70 loads. Next week’s cattle futures trading action will very likely be heavily influenced by how the U.S. stock market trades on a daily basis, and to a lesser extent the price action in raw commodity sector leader crude oil. Nearby live cattle futures discounts to the cash cattle market may help to limit any price downside in cattle futures next week.
30-day outlook: The outdoor grilling season moves into higher gear in the coming weeks, which should make for better demand for beef at the meat counter. Despite recently more downbeat consumer confidence readings, it’s likely retailers will continue to feature beef specials to draw consumers into their stores.
90-day outlook: Recent USDA reports showing still-low U.S. cattle supplies that are expected to continue low into 2026 will continue to be a bullish underlying market fundamental for the cattle and beef markets in the coming months. And despite any erosion in U.S. consumer confidence, some studies suggest that when their spending budgets get tighter, many consumers opt to not dine out and instead reward a hard week’s work with beef for dinner at home.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through April. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.