Hogs
Price action: Hog futures slipped Thursday. The deferred contracts declined modestly, while nearby April slipped 2.5 cents to $85.55.
Fundamental analysis: The cash and wholesale markets have proven quite stable over the past few days. For example, Tuesday’s preliminary quote edged 9 cents higher to $89.41 from Monday’s official figure at $89.32. Wednesday’s USDA data indicates the index will then dip to $89.20 when officially quoted in the days ahead. And after falling $2.01 on Tuesday, pork cutout slipped another 45 cents to $95.19 Wednesday, then rebounded 27 cents to $95.46 at midsession today. As usual, a sizeable shift in pork belly values played an outsized role in the move.
We harbor ideas the pork belly market will prove comparatively strong this summer, since frozen stocks remained comparatively low through January. This could prove especially true if spring and summer hog and pork production resume their late-winter habit of falling below year-ago levels. Recent wholesale belly weakness seems likely to encourage grocers to plan for active bacon features when spring/summer BLT season rolls around. On the other hand, the relatively large rise in retail bacon prices in January could stifle consumer demand if it is followed by continued increases this spring. The supply outlook will be further clarified by next week’s USDA Cold Storage (3/25) and Hogs & Pigs (3/27) reports.
Technical analysis: Bears hold the short-term technical advantage in April hog futures after bulls proved unable to seriously challenge 40-day moving average resistance near $88.50 Monday. The subsequent decline has established initial and secondary resistance at the contract’s 20- and 10-day moving averages near $86.15 and $86.76, respectively. Today’s low marked initial support at $85.225, with a zone of support likely extending down from that point to the psychologically important $85.00 level. A drop below that point would have bears targeting the March 5 low of $82.875, then the psychological $80.00 level.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through March. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through April.
Cattle
Price action: April live cattle rose $1.65 to $208.475, near the session high and hit a contract high. May feeder cattle gained $1.60 to $289.10, near the daily high and hit another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw more technical buying today amid fully bullish charts. Cash cattle market fundamentals are also solid. Some improved risk appetite in the general marketplace late this week also led to some better speculative buying interest in the cattle markets. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting saw the U.S. stock indexes post their best FOMC-day gains since the middle of last year.
Cash cattle trade so far this week has been light ahead of Friday afternoon’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report, which is expected to show declines in placements, marketings and on feed. So far this week cash cattle trading has been very light at prices around $202.00. The noon report today showed Choice-grade boxed beef prices up 34 cents to $329.95 after strong gains Wednesday. Select grade rose $1.74 to $310.42. Movement at midday was 58 loads.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 10,200 MT for 2025, down 29% from the previous week and down 40% from the four-week average.
Fundamental analysis: Live cattle futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close April futures above solid resistance at $212.50. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $200.00. First resistance is seen at $209.00 and then at $210.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $206.25 and then at $205.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close May futures prices above technical resistance at $295.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $277.225. First resistance is seen at $290.00 and then at $291.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $286.30 and then at $285.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through March. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through April.