Hogs
Price action: June lean hogs rose $1.475 to $93.175 and near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The hog futures market performed well today in the face of a big sell off in the U.S. stock market and risk aversion that quickly returned to the general marketplace. Short covering was featured. Cash hog and pork market fundamentals are still weakening. The CME lean hog index is down another 16 cents to $88.00 as of April 8, marking the lowest level since Feb. 12. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price today is $87.57. The noon report today showed pork cutout value extended losses, at the lowest level since January, and dropping 83 cents to $90.03, led by declines in picnics and loins. However, movement at midday was good at 213.65 loads. USDA this morning reported U.S. pork export sales of 23,900 MT for 2025, down 55% from the previous week and down 23% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close June prices above solid chart resistance at $97.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $85.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $94.275 and then at $95.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $91.125 and then at $90.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through April. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle fell $3.175 to $195.20, nearer the session low. May feeder cattle lost $2.90 to $275.30, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets today fell victim to a rapid return to keen risk aversion in the general marketplace as the U.S. stock market dropped sharply and took back about half of Wednesday strong gains, as of midday. A wobbly stock market is shaking consumer confidence that may result in weakening demand for beef at the meat counter. However, a cooler-than-expected consumer price index today likely lifted consumer sentiment at least a bit.
Cash cattle and beef market fundamentals are weakening a bit. Cash cattle trading has taken place so far this week at around $207.50, which is down from the average of $210.00 trading at the same time last week. The noon report today showed wholesale beef values lower again, with Choice grade down $2.25 to $335.61, while Select grade dropped $3.30 to $317.31. Movement at midday was 59 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently at $18.30.
USDA this morning reported net U.S. beef export sales of 11,900 MT for 2025, up 25% from the previous week and up 14% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been soundly negated. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close June futures above resistance at $203.70, which is the top of a downside price gap on the daily bar chart. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $185.00. First resistance is seen at $197.00 and then at today’s high of $198.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $194.125 and then at this week’s low of $191.80.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close May futures prices above technical resistance at $282.275, which is the top of a downside price gap formed on the daily chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the February low of $261.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $279.425 and then at $281.00. First support is seen at $273.00 and then at $270.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through April. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.