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Winter wheat conditions unexpectedly decline... USDA rated the winter wheat crop as 45% “good” to “excellent,” as of Sunday, down two points from the previous week. Analysts expected no change in the top two categories. USDA rated the crop 21% “poor” to “very poor,” up two points from last week. Beneficial rains are forecast for dry areas of the Southern Plains over the next week.
| This week | Last week | Year-ago | |
| Very poor | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Poor | 15 | 14 | 11 |
| Fair | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| Good | 38 | 41 | 43 |
| Excellent | 7 | 6 | 7 |
USDA reported the crop was 15% headed, two points ahead of average. The crop was 47% headed in Texas (46% average), 20% in Oklahoma (22%) and 6% in Kansas (1%).
Corn planting jumps ahead of average, emergence normal... USDA reported corn planting advanced eight percentage points over the past week to 12%, two points ahead of the five-year average. The planting pace is either equal to or behind average in the eastern Corn Belt and Mid-South, while it is advanced in most western Belt states. A wet pattern is expected across the central U.S. during the next 10 days to two weeks, which could slow the corn planting pace, especially in already saturated areas of the Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi river basins.
USDA reported the corn crop was 2% emerged, equal to the five-year average.
Soybean planting ahead of average... Soybean planting advanced six points over the past week to 8%, three points ahead of average. The planting pace is ahead of normal aside from Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio.
Spring wheat planting running ahead of average... Spring wheat planting advanced 10 points to 17%, five points ahead of average. Planting was ahead of the normal pace in all but Minnesota (3% vs. 6% average) and Washington (57% vs. 61%). Top producer North Dakota had 10% of its crop seeded, double the five-year average.
The crop was 2% emerged, equal to the average pace.
Cotton planting advancing normally... USDA reported cotton planting reached 11%, equal to the five-year average. Planting stood at 16% in Texas (equal to the five-year average) and 3% in Georgia (4%).
Vance, Modi note significant progress on U.S./India trade deal... Vice President JD Vance and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed significant progress in talks for an early trade deal between the two countries. The two leaders also noted continued efforts towards enhancing cooperation in energy, defense and strategic technologies, among other areas. They discussed regional and global issues and called for dialogue and diplomacy.
A statement from Vance’s office said the two leaders agreed on a roadmap for further discussions on trade. It said a bilateral trade agreement “presents an opportunity to negotiate a new and modern trade agreement focused on promoting job creation and citizen well-being in both countries.”
Officials in New Delhi are expecting to reach a trade deal with the U.S. within the 90-day pause on tariff hikes announced by President Donald Trump on April 9.
Trump warns allies on ‘non-tariff cheating’ despite tariff pause... On Sunday, President Donald Trump posted an eight-point list of alleged “non-tariff cheating” practices he said are harming U.S. trade interests, even as his administration temporarily paused reciprocal tariffs for most U.S. allies — excluding China.
Trump’s eight-point “non-tariff cheating” list:
1. Currency Manipulation – Devaluing currencies to undercut U.S. exports.
2. VATs as Hidden Tariffs – Foreign VAT systems that refund exports but tax imports.
3. Dumping Below Cost – Undercutting competitors by selling products abroad at losses.
4. Export & Government Subsidies – State aid distorting global competition.
5. Protective Agricultural Standards – Citing EU bans on GE crops as disguised protectionism.
6. Technical Barriers to Trade – Referencing Japan’s “bowling ball” car test.
7. IP Theft & Counterfeiting – Claiming over $1 trillion lost annually from IP violations.
8.Transshipping to Evade Tariffs – Redirecting goods through third countries to bypass duties.
The warning coincides with renewed trade talks with Japan, South Korea and India. Trump’s message reiterates that non-tariff practices are just as damaging as formal duties. While most allies enjoy a 90-day tariff reprieve, Trump emphasized continued scrutiny of trade tactics he views as unfair — particularly by China.
Some Trump officials weigh exporter tax credit to offset tariff damage... Some U.S. officials are considering a new exporter tax credit to compensate U.S. manufacturers for export losses caused by retaliatory tariffs. For example, if a company sees a drop in exports due to foreign tariffs, it could receive an equivalent tax credit to cushion the impact. Unlike traditional business tax breaks that incentivize specific investments, this credit would aim to reverse damage caused by U.S. trade policies.
Critics argue the plan contradicts the 2017 Trump tax reform, which simplified the corporate tax code by eliminating special breaks in exchange for a lower 21% rate. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned this kind of tax carveout could erode the reform’s benefits, potentially forcing Republicans to raise the corporate tax rate to cover revenue losses.
More broadly, opponents argue the move would exacerbate the political distortions caused by tariffs, encouraging lobbying for subsidies and undermining overall economic competitiveness. Naysayers note an export credit would be a second policy mistake, compounding the original error of broad tariffs.
Trump ramps up pressure on Powell to cut interest rates... President Trump has been ramping up his calls for the Fed to cut interest rates, prompting investors to worry about the central bank’s independence and whether he may seek to oust the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump escalated his criticism of Powell on Monday, saying the U.S. economy is headed for a slowdown “unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates NOW,” in a Truth Social post.
Dow Jones newswire reported Trump is unlikely to fire Powell, TD Securities’ Molly Brooks said, adding that such a move would trigger lengthy legal battles. Since Powell’s term ends in May 2026, she says “it just might not be worth the trouble trying to get rid of him now.”