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Muted reaction to USDA’s March WASDE Report... USDA made no changes to its forecasts for 2024-25 U.S. corn, soybean and cotton ending stocks. It raised projected carryover for wheat. USDA made relatively modest changes to global ending stocks, lowering the forecasts for corn, soybeans and cotton, while raising it for wheat. Markets had muted price responses. Click here for full details.
USDA adjusts livestock/meat balance sheets... USDA raised its 2025 beef production forecast to reflect higher dressed weights, which will more than offset lower slaughter. Beef production is still expected to decline 1.1% from year-ago. USDA raised its beef export projection, though shipments are still expected to decline 6.1% from last year. USDA projects the average cash steer price at $200.00, down $1.00 from last month but still up $12.88 from last year and a record.
USDA lowered its 2025 pork production outlook, as slower slaughter in the first quarter is expected to be only partially offset by higher weights. Pork production is still expected to rise 2.3% from last year. The export forecast was cut amid lower domestic supplies and increased global competition. Pork shipments are still projected to rise 1.5%. USDA projects the average cash hog price at $63.00, down $1.00 from last month but still up $1.44 from last year.
Trump flip-flops on doubling tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum... President Donald Trump initially announced he was raising tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% in response to Ontario’s levy on U.S. electricity imports. He later said he was reevaluating those plans. Today’s news came one day after Ontario Premier Doug Ford slapped a 25% surcharge on energy exports to three U.S. state customers – New York, Michigan and Minnesota.
Ford and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced they plan to meet Thursday in Washington and that the province would suspend its plans to slap a surcharge on electricity exports to the United States.
Calmer heads appear to have prevailed for now, with Ford noting: With any negotiation that we have, there’s a point that both parties are heated and the temperature needs to come down. And I thought this was the right decision. They understand how serious we are about the electricity and the tariffs.”
But tensions between the two countries remain elevated. Canadian Prime Minister-Designate Mark Carney wrote on social media, “President Trump’s latest tariffs are an attack on Canadian workers, families, and businesses. My government will ensure our response has maximum impact in the U.S. and minimal impact here in Canada, while supporting the workers impacted.”
Trump also warned of further tariff hikes on April 2 if Canada does not remove duties on U.S. dairy and other goods.
Senators push for faster disaster aid for farmers... A bipartisan group of senators urged USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on Monday to speed up the distribution of $20 billion in disaster relief for farmers recovering from last year’s hurricanes in the Southeast. Led by Sens. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) and Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), along with Reps. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) and Don Davis (D-N.C.), the letter was signed by lawmakers from affected states like North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. They want more straightforward guidelines on how relief is administered by the department. “Producers from vulnerable agriculture communities that were hit hard by these recent natural disasters are at risk of greatly downsizing or having to shut down their operations if the agricultural disaster relief funding is not fully accessible in the upcoming months,” the letter reads. “Clear direction and quick action from the USDA on disaster payment structure would provide certainty and, in many cases, a lifeline for farmers to continue their operations.”
Rollins also assured farmers that her team is working on rapid implementation and confirmed that a separate $10 billion in economic aid will be available for application by March 21.
Ukraine accepts U.S. ceasefire plan in exchange for aid... Ukraine accepted a U.S. proposal for a 30-day truce with Russia as part of a deal with the Trump administration to lift a freeze on military aid and intelligence for Kyiv. The U.S. will now take the proposal to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to seek his agreement.
U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz told reporters that the Ukrainian delegation “made concrete steps and concrete proposals, not only accepting our proposal for a full ceasefire. We also got into substantive details on how this war is going to permanently end, what type of guarantees they’re going to have for their long-term security and prosperity, but also really looking at what it’s going to take to finally end the horrific fighting.”
The U.S. and Ukraine also discussed the need to conduct prisoner swaps with Russia during the truce, according to a statement. And the two nations agreed to conclude “as soon as possible” a deal Trump has demanded to share in Ukraine’s mineral development.
U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is due to meet with Putin in Moscow, Bloomberg reported. Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a think tank that advises the Kremlin, said “the way it’s worded here is unlikely to satisfy anyone. We have said many times that there will be no truces until conditions for a lasting peace are agreed upon. No conditions are specified here, everything will have to be agreed upon later.”
Caution on Trump-Xi meeting speculation... Despite reports from the South China Morning Post and the Wall Street Journal about potential meetings between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in April or June, skepticism is warranted, say some China experts. With critical trade decisions and potential tariffs looming, they say it is unlikely Xi would agree to a meeting without clearer signals from the U.S. on trade policy and export controls.