Evening Report | USDA launches global push to boost ag exports

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Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... Next week is setting up as an important and potentially market-moving week for markets. USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports on March 31 have potential to spark big price moves. April 2 is the day President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs on other countries, including the major trading partners – his so-called “Liberation Day.” Barring any last-minute agreements, the tariffs action could spark major market gyrations, though some of the trade negativity is already worked into markets. USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report showed unexpected contraction of the U.S.hog herd, with no indications producers intend to expand. USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report showed a plunge in the number of cattle moved into feedlots in February and signaled market supplies will remain tight. On the economic front, consumer confidence plunged amid uncertainties over expected future conditions given volatile policy changes in Washington. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.

Big day of potentially market-moving reports next Monday... USDA will release its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks Reports Monday, both of which have potential to trigger strong price reactions. Most of the pre-report focus tends to be on planting intentions for the upcoming growing season. But quarterly stocks have a history of producing big price moves, especially for the corn market, as analysts have struggled to accurately predict those figures. The following pre-report estimates are from a Reuters survey.

USDA launches global push to boost ag exports... USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins unveiled an ambitious international travel agenda aimed at reversing the country’s nearly $50 billion agricultural trade deficit. In her first six months as Secretary, Rollins will visit six key international markets as part of a broader USDA effort to expand export opportunities, diversify trade partners, and reinforce commitments from existing ones.
“President Trump has the backs of our farmers and ranchers,” said Rollins. “I’m going abroad to sell the bounty of American agriculture and ensure prosperity for our producers.”
Where she’s headed & why it matters:

• India: Sixth-largest buyer of U.S. agricultural products but currently holding a $1.3 billion trade surplus over the U.S.
• Brazil: The U.S. faces a significant $7 billion agricultural trade deficit with Brazil.
• United Kingdom: A top 15 export market where American products face high tariffs and restricted quotas.
• Japan: A crucial buyer of corn, beef, pork and soy — but U.S. exporters face fierce global competition.
• Vietnam: A top 10 market with no formal trade agreement, unlike China, which enjoys better access.
• Peru: South America’s No. 3 market for U.S. ag exports, with strong demand for ethanol, dairy and meats.

Additional USDA-led trade missions: Hong Kong, the Dominican Republic, Taiwan, Côte d’Ivoire and Mexico are also on the calendar as the Department broadens its trade footprint.

Big Picture: The Rollins-led initiative signals a sharp pivot from the previous administration’s limited engagement on global ag trade. With export diversification now front and center, USDA is staking out a more aggressive role on the international stage to support American farmers and ranchers.

EU plans concessions for Trump after reciprocal tariffs hit... The European Union is identifying concessions it’s willing to make to Donald Trump’s administration to secure the partial removal of the U.S. tariffs that have already started hitting the bloc’s exports and that are set to increase after April 2. EU officials were told at meetings this week in Washington that there was no way to avoid new auto and so-called reciprocal tariffs that Trump is launching next week, people familiar with the talks told Bloomberg.
That has prompted the European Commission, which handles trade matters for the EU, to start working on a “term sheet” for a potential agreement, which would set out areas for negotiations on the punitive trade measures, including lowering its own duties, mutual investments with the U.S. as well as easing certain regulations and standards, said the people.

Trump: Call with Canada PM Carney ‘extremely productive’... President Donald Trump said he and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke this morning, describing the conversation as “extremely productive.” In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote, “It was an extremely productive call, we agree on many things, and will be meeting immediately after Canada’s upcoming Election to work on elements of Politics, Business, and all other factors, that will end up being great for both the United States of America and Canada. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
The Canadian federal election is April 28.

Here’s what might be in play:

• USMCA adjustments or new trilateral agreements with Mexico, especially if Carney shares a vision for modernization.
• Critical minerals cooperation, which has been a priority between the U.S. and Canada.
• Cross-border energy and infrastructure projects (e.g., pipelines, EV supply chains).
• Potential tariff issues that Trump might seek to renegotiate or reinforce.
• Carney’s financial background could signal a Canadian government more open to U.S. investment and financial partnerships, especially on climate financing, digital economy frameworks, and fintech.
• Any trilateral discussion involving U.S., Canada and Mexico inevitably touches on border control, asylum processing, labor mobility, and visa policy. If there’s a major U.S. shift in immigration policy (mass deportations or expanded enforcement), Canada may want to coordinate to avoid migrant surges at northern borders.

What to watch next week

• Any joint U.S./Canada statements hinting at policy alignment.
• Signals from Mexico’s leadership about trilateral frameworks or new cooperation areas.
• Financial market reaction in Canada (especially if Carney’s win looks more likely).
• U.S. business and trade groups responding — if they see opportunity in a new Canada relationship.

Perspective: Trump calling the conversation “extremely productive” and emphasizing agreement on “many things” signals an early effort to align with a future Canadian administration — possibly to reset or reinforce U.S./Canada relations post-Trudeau. Mentioning a meeting immediately after the Canadian election is also symbolic — it projects confidence, urgency and a strategic relationship.

Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ticks up... The February core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, increased 0.4% on a monthly basis and 2.8% annually, up 0.1 percentage point each. That was the largest monthly increase in core PCE since January 2024. Headline inflation, including food and energy prices, rose 0.3% from January and 2.5% from year-ago – both unchanged from the January readings.

Consumer confidence slumps in March amid plunging future expectations... The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index plunged to 57.0 in March, down 11.9% from the previous month and 28.2% from year-ago. The current conditions reading dropped 2.9% from February and 22.7% from last year. the index of consumer expectations plummeted 17.8% on a monthly basis and 32.0% annually.

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, “Consumer sentiment confirmed its early month reading and fell for the third straight month, plummeting 12% from February. The expectations index plunged a precipitous 18% and has now lost more than 30% since November 2024. Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments. Notably, two-thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. This trend reveals a key vulnerability for consumers, given that strong labor markets and incomes have been the primary source of strength supporting consumer spending in recent years.”

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.3% last month to 5.0%, the highest reading since November 2022. Long-run inflation expectations surged from 3.5% in February to 4.1%.