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Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans were 2 to 3 cents higher, wheat was 2 to 4 cents lower and cotton was 50 to 75 points lower. As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 1 cent lower to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 6 to 7 cents lower, winter wheat is 6 to 8 cents higher, spring wheat is 10 to 12 cents higher and cotton is around 50 points lower. See our Special Report here.
Prospective Plantings Report Corn:
95.326 mil. acres; trade expected 94.361 mil. acres— compares to 90.594 mil. acres in 2024
Soybeans: 83.495 mil. acres; traders expected 83.762 mil. acres— compares to 87.050 mil. acres in 2024
All wheat: 45.350 mil. acres; traders expected 46.475 mil. acres— compares to 46.079 mil. acres in 2024
Other spring wheat: 10.02 mil. acres; traders expected 10.531 mil. acres— compares to 10.625 mil. acres in 2024
Durum: 2.015 mil. acres; traders expected 2.004 mil. acres— compares to 2.064 mil. acres in 2024 Cotton: 9.867 mil. acres; traders expected 10.189 mil. acres— compares to 11.182 mil. acres in 2024
Corn acres came above the average trade estimate but within the range of expectations. USDA came in above our acreage forecast as well. Soybeans were below our survey estimate and just below the trade average forecast. It is not uncommon for acres to become more in line with our survey numbers later in the year, meaning corn acres are not likely to grow and soybean acres not likely to shrink. Corn planted area for all purposes in 2025 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, up 5 percent or 4.73 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimating States. Acres are up in nine of the 10 top producing states. Compared with last year, corn plantings are expected to increase 300,000 acres in Illinois (to 11.1 million acres), 200,000 acres in Indiana (to 5.4 million acres), 600,000 acres in Iowa (to 13.5 million acres), 100,000 acres in Kansas (to 6.4 million acres), 50,000 acres in Michigan (to 2.3 million acres), 400,000 acres in Minnesota (to 8.6 million acres), 350,000 acres in Missouri (to 3.8 million acres), 550,000 acres in Nebraska (to 10.6 million acres), 250,000 acres in North Dakota (to 4.2 million acres), 400,000 acres in South Dakota (to 6.3 million acres) and 200,000 acres in Wisconsin (to 3.95 million acres). Acres acre expected to fall 150,000 acres in Ohio (to 3.25 million acres).
USDA estimates soybean acres will fall to 83.5 million acres, down 4 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 23 of the 29 estimated states. Compared with year ago, soybean acres acre expected to fall 50,000 acres in Arkansas (to 3.0 million acres), 300,000 acres in Illinois (to 10.5 million acres), 100,000 acres in Indiana (to 5.7 million acres), 450,000 acres in Iowa (to 9.6 million acres), 230,000 acres in Kansas (to 4.3 million acres), 50,000 acre in Michigan (to 2.15 million acres), 400,000 acres in Minnesota (to 7.0 million acres), 200,000 acres in Missouri (to 5.7 million acres), 300,000 acres in Nebraska (to 5.0 million acres), 400,000 acres in North Dakota (to 6.2 million acres), 350,000 acres in South Dakota (to 5.1 million acres) and 250,000 acres in Wisconsin (to 1.9 million acres). Acres are expected to rise 50,000 acres in Ohio (to 5.1 million acres).
All wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 45.4 million acres, down 2 percent from 2024. If realized, this represents the second lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2025 winter wheat planted area, at 33.3 million acres, is down 2 percent from the previous estimate and down less than 1 percent from last year. Of this total, about 23.6 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.09 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.66 million acres are White Winter. Area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2025 is estimated at 10.0 million acres, down 6 percent from 2024 estimate. Of this total, about 9.40 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2025 is expected to total 2.02 million acres, down 2 percent from the previous year. All cotton planted area for 2025 is estimated at 9.87 million acres, down 12 percent from last year. Upland area is estimated at 9.71 million acres, down 12 percent from 2024. American Pima area is estimated at 157,000 acres, down 24 percent from 2024. Acres in Texas are expected to fall 456,000 acres to 5.527 million acres.
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report Corn: 8.151 billion bu.; traders expected 8.151 billion bu.— compares to 12.074 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 8.352 bil. bu. on March 1, 2024
Soybeans: 1.91 billion bu.; traders expected 1.901 billion bu.— compares to 3.100 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 1.845 bil. bu. on March 1, 2024
Wheat: 1.237 billion bu.; traders expected 1.215 billion bu.— compares to 1.570 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 1.089 bil. bu. on March 1, 2024
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 8.151 billion bu., matching trade expectations. Stocks are down 2.4% from March 1 of year-ago. Of the total, on-farm stocks of 4.5 billion bu. were reported, down 11.4% from year-ago. On-farm stocks were 55.2% of total stocks. Off-farm stocks totaled 3.651 billion bu., up 11.5% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks were 44.8% of total stocks. Implied disappearance of corn in the second quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year is 3.92 billion bu., up 2.6% from the same quarter last year.
Soybean stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.91 billion bu., just 9 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate and up 3.5% from March 1 of year-ago. Of the total, on-farm stocks of 876.5 million bu. are down 7% from year-ago. On-farm stocks were 45.9% of total stocks. Off-farm stocks totaled 1.034 billion bu., 13.4% above year-ago. Off-farm stocks were 54.1% of total stocks. Implied disappearance of soybeans in the second quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year is 1.19 billion bu., up 3% from the same quarter last year.
Wheat stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.237 billion bu., 22 million bu. above trade expectations. Stocks are 13.6% above March 1 of last year. Of the total, on-farm stocks of 307 million bu. are up 12.9% from year-ago. On-farm stocks were 24.8% of total stocks. Off-farm stocks totaled 930 million bu., up 13.8% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks were 75.2% of total stocks. All wheat implied usage in the third quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year is 336 million bu., up 1% from the same quarter last year.
USDA releases $537 million in biofuel infrastructure funding…In a major boost to rural energy development, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the release of $537 million in obligated funding under the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP). The funding will support 543 projects across 29 states, advancing President Trump’s energy agenda and fulfilling his Jan. 20 Executive Order on Unleashing American Energy. USDA said the announcement, made at Elite Octane LLC in Iowa — a national leader in ethanol and biodiesel production — spotlighted the administration’s commitment to farmers, ranchers, and small businesses, especially in regions where agriculture fuels bioenergy. “President Trump is honoring our commitment to America’s farmers, ranchers and small businesses, especially here in Iowa where corn and soy growers are crucial to supporting ethanol and biodiesel production,” said Secretary Rollins.
Rollins emphasized a shift away from “misguided climate policies” like the Green New Deal, positioning USDA investments as catalysts for job creation, energy independence, and rural economic growth.
Background on HBIIP. Created during Trump’s first term, HBIIP supports the expansion of biofuel use by funding infrastructure upgrades — such as pumps and storage tanks — that allow gas stations to offer blends like E15, E85, and B20. These fuels are made from U.S.-grown agricultural commodities, benefiting farmers and consumers alike. USDA is also coordinating with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to establish Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) that support the biofuel industry and facilitate nationwide, year-round sales of E15, reinforcing biofuels as a pillar of the rural economy.
Impacts: USDA said that with Iowa’s 42 ethanol plants and 10 biodiesel facilities leading the way, the funding is expected to create jobs, diversify the energy supply, and bolster rural resilience amid global trade and energy challenges.
Trump confirms reciprocal tariffs to hit all countries…President Donald Trump announced that his upcoming reciprocal tariff initiative (Wed., April 2) will begin with all countries, dismissing speculation that a smaller group of nations might be targeted initially. “You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens,” Trump said aboard Air Force One on Sunday, pushing back on reports suggesting a narrower rollout.
The tariffs are a core piece of Trump’s economic strategy to rebalance global trade and strengthen U.S. manufacturing. Revenue from the new duties may also be channeled toward domestic priorities, including extending tax cuts from his first term and fulfilling additional campaign tax promises.
Key details — such as which goods will be taxed, how tariff levels will be determined, and what actions countries must take to qualify for exemptions — remain unclear. Trump has previously stated that non-tariff trade barriers will also factor into the calculations, but no formal framework has been released yet.
Some 15 nations make up about three-quarters of the U.S. trade deficit, with nine in Asia, according to Bloomberg Economics.
White House mulls farm aid as Trump escalates global tariff fight…As President Trump moves ahead with sweeping new tariffs targeting countries around the globe, the White House is quietly preparing a financial cushion for American farmers likely to be hit hardest by the fallout. In reporting by the New York Times (link), officials within the Trump administration have begun exploring a potential aid package for the agricultural sector — a move reminiscent of the $28 billion aid package extended during the 2018 trade war with China. According to the Times, “early discussions offer a tacit acknowledgment that Mr. Trump’s expansive tariffs could unleash financial devastation throughout the U.S. agricultural industry.”
Trump’s new tariff campaign — set to begin April 2 — targets not just traditional rivals like China, but allies such as Canada, Mexico, the EU, and Japan. With the agricultural sector already reeling from past trade tensions, farmers are once again in the crosshairs.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins told reporters last week that Trump directed her “to have some programs in place that would potentially mitigate any economic catastrophes that could happen” due to tariff retaliation. The proposal under review would likely mirror the Commodity Credit Corporation-based model used in Trump’s first term, though questions remain about whether there are enough funds to go around this time.
The Times notes that Trump’s tariffs are central to his broader economic plan — both as a source of federal revenue and as a political talking point. But economists warn that the strategy is costly. “In addition to consumers being impacted by tariffs, now you have taxpayers who are going to be on the hook,” said Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, in an interview with the New York Times.
Farmers, meanwhile, are expressing concern. “Obviously, we’re concerned with the economics of where we’re at today,” said Kenneth Hartman Jr., president of the Corn Board of the National Corn Growers Association. “That’s probably our biggest concern right now,” he added, pointing to the risk of foreign competitors taking over U.S. export markets.
Josh Gackle, chair of the American Soybean Association, told the New York Times that “access to a free and fair trade market” is the industry’s top priority. But he acknowledged that until markets stabilize, “we hope the administration can find a way to address that financial impact on our farms.”
Retaliation from the 2018 tariffs slashed $27 billion in agricultural exports, a hit the administration only partially offset with federal payments. Whether the White House can pull off a similar rescue in 2025 remains uncertain, especially as Congress may need to replenish the USDA’s borrowing authority.
Still, Trump appears undeterred. “We may take less than what they’re charging,” he said on Monday. “Because they’ve charged us so much, I don’t think they could take it.”
For now, the mood in farm country remains wary. If history is any guide, the political consequences of a prolonged trade war could be just as significant as the economic ones — especially with another election cycle looming.