Please fill out the Pro Farmer spring acreage survey... Please fill out our annual spring acreage survey with your current planting intentions for the 2025 growing season. Thank you to those that have completed the survey.
Mexico will announce countermeasures on Sunday... Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum announced her country will wait until Sunday to introduce retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods. Sheinbaum said she will announce the products Mexico will target in a public event in Mexico City’s central plaza, perhaps indicating the country still hopes to de-escalate the trade war. Sheinbaum previously stated her country has a “Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, and even Plan D” in place.
Trump’s tariffs may be ushering in new era of protectionism... In a Wall Street Journal article titled “Trump Tariffs Usher In New Era of Protectionism,” authors Konrad Putzier and Justin Lahart outline the significant economic shifts resulting from President Donald Trump’s tariff implementations on imports from Mexico, Canada and China. The article highlights the uncertainty and disruption these tariffs are causing in various industries and markets.
The authors note that as of 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday, March 4, 2025, the U.S. economy entered a new phase with the implementation of these tariffs, marking “the end of decades of free trade among the three countries.”
The article emphasizes the potential long-term impacts of these tariffs on U.S. trade relationships and the economy. As Putzier and Lahart state, “If the tariffs remain in place, they have the potential to profoundly reshape relations between the U.S. and two of its biggest trading partners, abruptly reversing America’s decadeslong project of expanding free trade with its allies.”
The immediate effects of the tariffs are already being felt across various sectors:
- Manufacturing: The uncertainty is slowing business orders and complicating company planning. One respondent to the Dallas Fed’s February manufacturing survey noted, “Tariff threats and uncertainty are extremely disruptive.”
- Stock Market: U.S. stocks tumbled on Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite declining 2.6%.
- Auto Industry: Ford Motor’s CEO Jim Farley warned that prolonged 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico “would have a huge impact on our industry, with billions of dollars of industry profits wiped out.”
- Small Businesses: Companies like The Penny Ice Creamery in California are struggling to prepare for potential price increases on imported ingredients.
Economists warn of potential long-term consequences, including the risk of “stagflation” — a combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth and elevated unemployment. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, suggests that if tariffs remain in effect, they could push up inflation in the coming months as firms raise prices to compensate for higher import costs.
The article concludes by drawing historical parallels, noting that while the U.S. has raised tariffs on major trading partners in the past, increases of this magnitude and scope are unprecedented in modern times.
Ag perspective on Trump’s tariffs... Said one Washington insider about Trump’s tariffs: “How long do the White House and the Ag Secretary think farmers want to get government payments instead of from the market? What about the remaining 94% of the rural population and the agriculture chain that will not be receiving payments under any USDA scheme with many, many employees’ jobs at risk? They didn’t get payments last time and they weren’t passed back to them or on to Main Street. The 70%-plus of the rural population that voted for the president seems to be being told that even though they voted at the highest percentages of anyone for the president, their jobs, businesses and the people they employ do not matter. Other sectors and jobs are more important. And the plan is to grow and use more here? How’s that work with the folks in the party wanting to get rid of the renewables provisions? How’s that work with cattle numbers down and meat and poultry exports now getting hit with multiple tariffs in other countries…”
Said another Washington insider: “Trump has talked about tariffs since his 2016 presidential campaign. We are running a $1 trillion trade deficit. Our ag trade deficit has ballooned to almost $50 billion. Nobody likes tariffs but something must be done to open up ag markets both in terms of tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. We simply can’t afford to continue down the path of growing the overall trade and ag trade deficits. Both need to be addressed aggressively.”
Trump warns Japan, China against currency manipulation amid tariff escalation... President Trump warned the leaders of Japan and China against reducing the value of their currencies, calling it unfair to the United States. Despite Trump’s claims, Japanese and Chinese officials denied pursuing currency devaluation policies.
Analysts say Trump’s criticism of China’s foreign exchange policy appears to be unfounded, given the yuan’s relative strength in currency markets and Beijing’s efforts to keep it stable. Reuters noted, China’s yuan has fallen 2.5% against the dollar since Trump’s election win, merely reflecting a rise of the same magnitude in the dollar index. China’s CFETS basket, which measures the yuan’s value against currencies of its major trading partners, is down 1.4% this year but remains above the 100-mark, implying the yuan has been stronger than those currencies.
Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told Reuters Trump’s remarks might encourage China and Japan to jawbone their currencies lower to avoid higher tariffs.
But Broker SP Angel said, “Speculation is rising that China will let the yuan depreciate to blunt the impact of tariffs and support exporters.”
U.S. objects to recommendation on SAF in ICAO meeting... The U.S. objected to a recommendation on “sustainable” aviation fuels (SAF) at a meeting held by the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) on Monday, the State Department said. The recommendation to the ICAO Council on multi-cropping, the practice of growing two or more crops on the same land, for SAF would unfairly penalize U.S. farmers and significantly benefit Brazil over the rest of the world. The U.S. government believes this proposal is premature and lacks sufficient technical or scientific justification. Despite these issues, ICAO’s multinational Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection adopted the recommendation.
EPA calls for probe into $20 billion greenhouse gas fund mismanagement... EPA has requested an internal investigation into potential financial mismanagement, conflicts of interest and allegations of taxpayer funds being awarded to unqualified recipients under a Biden-era grant program. EPA Administator Lee Zeldin aims to scrutinize the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA/Climate Act), which allocated nearly $27 billion in grants for decarbonization projects. Concerns include alleged self-dealing, lack of financial oversight and $2 billion granted to a nonprofit linked to Stacey Abrams. The Office of Inspector General may recommend reforms or refer cases to the Department of Justice if criminal conduct is identified.
Indonesia to plant more sugar palm to make ethanol... Indonesia plans to plant sugar palm trees on 1.2 million hectares (nearly 3 million acres) to produce ethanol to cut gasoline imports, in a project estimated to cost $6 billion, its forestry minister said. The plan is part of new President Prabowo Subianto’s energy self-sufficiency drive.
The planned sugar palm plantation could produce 26 million kilo litres of ethanol, with an estimated cost of around 100 trillion rupiah ($6.08 billion), minister Raja Juli Antoni said. “The president has been a fan of sugar palm trees for a long time because they can be used for energy and food security,” the minister said, without providing details such as location nor funding.