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Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... Volatility across all markets, including ag commodities, remains elevated amid the ever-changing trade policies of President Donald Trump and his administration. Trump paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April 2 for goods covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), while duties on other goods remain in place. The tariffs/trade situation is especially concerning for agriculture as Mexico, Canada and China are the three largest export markets for U.S. ag goods, accounting for $91 billion in sales last year — 48% of ag exports. As the trade situation appears like it will worsen, U.S. agriculture posted another big deficit in January. Until the trade situation calms, a good portion of traders’ focus will remain on the outside noise and away from traditional fundamentals. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.
Trump says he may hit Canada with dairy, lumber tariffs soon... President Donald Trump said he may implement reciprocal tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy products at any moment. Trump said, “Canada has been ripping us off for years on tariffs for lumber and for dairy products. 250% — nobody ever talks about that — 250% tariff — which is taking advantage of our farmers. So that’s not going to happen anymore. They’ll be met with the exact same tariff unless they drop it, and that’s what reciprocal means. And we may do it as early as today, or we’ll wait till Monday or Tuesday, but that’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to charge the same thing. It’s not fair.”
Canada suspends imports from largest U.S. pork plant... Canada has blocked imports from the biggest U.S. pork processing plant, a facility run by Smithfield Foods in Tar Heel, North Carolina, the company said on Friday. USDA said the suspension was in line with standard protocols and unrelated to recent trade spat between the Trump administration and Canada.
USDA said, “Under Canada’s policy, three noncompliance issues within six months trigger a temporary suspension,” without providing details. “The issue pertains to a limited number of certain offal shipments,” Smithfield spokesperson Jim Monroe said.
USDA is working with Smithfield to address the issues and develop a corrective action plan that will be communicated to Canadian authorities.
Putin ready to agree to Ukraine truce with conditions... Russia is willing to discuss a temporary truce in Ukraine provided there is progress toward a final peace settlement, people familiar with the matter in Moscow told Bloomberg. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer was conveyed at last month’s talks in Saudi Arabia between top Russian and American officials, the people said.
In order to agree to a cessation of hostilities, there would have to be a clear understanding about the framework principles of the final peace accord, two people said. Russia will insist in particular on establishing the parameters of an eventual peacekeeping mission, including agreement on which countries would take part, said another person.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials plan to meet in Saudi Arabia next week. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said the meeting aims to reach “a framework for a peace agreement and an initial ceasefire.”
Trump said he’s pushing for deal to end the fighting and is confident that Putin wants a peace agreement. “I think he’s going to be more generous than he has to be,” Trump said. “I’m finding it more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine” than Russia.
Beef, pork exports slump to start 2025... The U.S. exported 230.2 million lbs. of beef during January, down 28.7 million lbs. from December and 2.4 million lbs. less than last year. That was the lowest monthly figure since November 2023 and the lowest January total since 2017.
Pork exports totaled 576.8 million lbs. during January, down 69.0 million lbs. from December and 10.9 million lbs. less than last year. That was the lowest monthly total since September 2024.
Modest, slightly lower-than-expected jobs growth in February... The U.S. economy added 151,000 non-farm payrolls in February, up from the downwardly revised figure of 125,000 for January. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%. Markets continued to signal the Fed’s next monetary policy move will wait until June.
IMF: U.S. tariffs will hurt Mexican, Canadian and Chinese economies... U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada and new duties on China, along with countermeasures announced by China and Canada, and potentially Mexico, will have a significant adverse impact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said the global economy was in the midst of significant transformations, including the rapid advance of artificial intelligence technologies, changing patterns of capital flows and a decline in trade – now growing at 3%, half the rate seen from 2000 to 2019. Governments are recalibrating their approaches and adjusting policies, Kozack said, noting increased volatility in financial markets and increasing indicators of global uncertainty. IMF will issue a more comprehensive assessment of the impact of the shift in U.S. trade policy for the global economy, and the countries most affected by it, when it releases an updated economic outlook in April, Kozack said.
Biofuels battle heats up... A brewing battle between Big Oil and independent refiners over U.S. biofuel (RFS) mandates is intensifying. While major oil companies and agricultural groups push for increased biofuel blending, independent refiners argue it would raise costs and threaten profits. The dispute underscores shifting alliances as Big Oil embraces biofuels amid the rise of electric vehicles. The delayed update on blending requirements until December 2025 adds further uncertainty.
South Dakota bans eminent domain for carbon pipelines... South Dakota Governor Larry Rhoden signed a bill banning the use of eminent domain for carbon dioxide pipelines, a win for property-rights activists opposing Summit Carbon Solutions’ proposed $9 billion carbon capture project. The new law prohibits carbon pipeline developers from using eminent domain to acquire land, emphasizing voluntary easements instead. Summit criticized the legislation as unfair and signaled potential legal action, stating, “all options are on the table.” The project, which aims to transport carbon dioxide from over 50 ethanol plants to North Dakota, continues in other states despite facing permitting challenges in South Dakota.
Bayer warns of possible Roundup exit in U.S. over legal risks... Bayer has cautioned U.S. lawmakers that it might cease selling its widely used Roundup weedkiller unless stronger legal protections are established against product liability litigation. Bayer argues that lawsuits invoking state laws should not be allowed because the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has repeatedly deemed glyphosate safe for use, as have regulators in other countries. Despite this, Bayer’s attempts to secure federal legal protections have so far been unsuccessful, including a failed petition to the Supreme Court in 2022. The company has already replaced glyphosate with alternative substances in consumer products sold in the U.S., but discontinuing Roundup for agricultural use would mark a significant shift.
Trump shifts strategy on job cuts, moves away from Musk-led firings... President Trump announced that Cabinet secretaries, not Elon Musk, will now lead job cut decisions as part of his streamlining effort. This change follows lawsuits and resistance from high-level officials after mass firings and unorthodox directives from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Cabinet chiefs will now have precise control over staffing, signaling a departure from Musk’s rapid-fire approach.