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Last chance to fill out the Pro Farmer spring acreage survey... Please fill out our annual spring acreage survey with your current planting intentions for the 2025 growing season. Thank you to those that have completed the survey.
Trump delays Canada, Mexico tariffs for goods under USMCA... President Donald Trump exempted Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) until April 2. Trump signed orders pushing back the start date on tariffs, which are related to illegal immigration and fentanyl tracking. The suspension applies to USMCA-compliant goods, which encompasses a significant portion of Mexican exports to the U.S., including sugar and corn. Automobiles and parts that meet USMCA requirements are also among the products exempt from the tariffs. Canadian potash used heavily in fertilizers for U.S. farmers faces a lower 10% duty.
The White House estimates that 62% of Canadian imports will still be subject to the tariffs, most of which are energy products that are being taxed at a 10% rate, and half of goods coming from Mexico.
April 2 is the date when Trump is expected to start unveiling plans for so-called reciprocal duties on nations around the world as well as sector-specific duties.
Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico spark USMCA controversy... President Trump’s recent imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico is highly controversial and potentially violates the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). While the Trump administration argues these tariffs are allowed under Article 32.2 of USMCA for national security reasons, many experts and trade officials disagree.
USMCA language was attached to Chapter 98 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS). The United States International Trade Commission modified HTSUS to include additions related to USMCA, including changes to Chapter 98. These modifications were made to implement the preferential tariff treatment and related customs provisions of USMCA, ensuring HTSUS reflects the agreement’s requirements for determining eligibility for preferential tariff treatment under the trade pact.
Bottom line: While the Trump administration claims the tariffs are justified under the national security exception in USMCA, this interpretation is contested. The broadening of the “essential security” clause in USMCA compared to NAFTA does give more leeway, but it’s debatable whether it extends to the current situation, sources advise. While the legality of the tariffs under USMCA is disputed, many experts argue they should not have been imposed as they undermine the spirit and intent of the agreement, potentially harming economic relationships and integrated industries across North America.
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Tariffs create uncertainty, volatility... and risk for agriculture... President Trump’s aggressive tariffs/trade policy stance is creating anxiousness in ag markets. We look back at how markets reacted to Trump’s first trade war in 2018, the differences and what some of the export risks are this time around.
U.S. presses Ukraine for quick truce to go with minerals deal... European officials have been told that President Trump wants to link the proposed U.S./Ukraine minerals deal to demands for Kyiv to commit to a quick ceasefire with Russia, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Washington has indicated Trump is ready to finalize the agreement on natural resources, which has been on hold since his Oval Office fallout with Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week, on condition the Ukrainian leader agrees to a tangible path for a truce and talks with Moscow, the people said.
There could be movement on the deal in the coming days, and Ukrainian and U.S. officials may meet in Saudi Arabia, where Zelenskiy is due to travel next week, some of the people said. Other officials cautioned the U.S. position could shift.
Ag trade deficit widens in January... U.S. ag exports totaled 14.41 billion in January against imports of $20.66 billion, resulting in a monthly deficit of $6.25 billion. This marked the 15th month of the past 16 in which agricultural trade posted a deficit. Four months into fiscal year (FY) 2025, cumulative exports stood at $63.97 billion, while imports totaled $75.95 billion for a deficit of $11.98 billion.
USDA forecasts ag exports in FY 2025 of $170.5 billion and imports at a record $219.5 billion. That would leave the U.S. with a record ag trade deficit of $49 billion, up from $31.8 billion in FY 2024.
U.S. post record trade deficit in January... The U.S. posted a record trade deficit of $131.4 billion in January, a sharp increase from a downwardly revised $98.1 billion shortfall in December. Imports surged 10% to a record $401.2 billion, while exports rose 1.2% to $269.8 billion.
The U.S. goods trade gap widened with China ($-29.7 billion), the EU ($-25.5 billion), Switzerland ($-22.8 billion), Mexico ($-15.5 billion), Vietnam ($-11.9 billion) and Canada ($-11.3 billion).
R word resurfaces re: U.S. economy... David Morrison of Trade Nation said in an email dispatch today: “President Trump has called everyone’s bluff and has said he’s prepared to take some pain to get what he wants. Tariffs may have been the trigger for the latest downturn, but they aren’t the only story. Speculation is growing over the possibility that a U.S. recession could start this year. GDP growth forecasts have been downgraded sharply, while inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. Recent economic data releases have disappointed, most notably consumer confidence, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.”
Indonesia aims for B50 biodiesel push, needs capacity boost... Indonesia must expand its biodiesel production capacity by around 4 million kiloliters to meet the government’s B50 (50% biodiesel blend) target for 2025, according to the producer group APROBI. The country’s current capacity of 19.6 million kiloliters would need to increase to accommodate the shift from the current B40 policy, considering maintenance limitations that cap operational capacity at 85%. Biodiesel demand under the B40 policy is projected to reach 15.6 million kiloliters this year.
ECB cuts interest rates amid tariff uncertainty... The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced key interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the sixth cut in nine months. ECB cut the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%. The reductions come as Europe faces sluggish economic growth and potential tariffs from the United States. With inflation easing to 2.4% in February and GDP growth barely positive, analysts warn of possible policy divisions within ECB as geopolitical pressures mount.
ECB acknowledged that monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households. Inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, with core inflation also nearing the 2% target.
Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.