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Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintains South American crop estimates…Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian soybean and corn estimates of 169 MMT and 122 MMT, respectively, noting widespread rainfall last week, which improved conditions for the safrinha corn crop, but indicated dryness remains a concern for southeastern Mato Grosso, Parana and Sao Paulo. Cordonnier also left his Argentine soybean and corn estimates unchanged at 48 MMT and 46 MMT, noting cooler, dryer conditions over the next 6-15 days, with the potential for localized frost in west-central Buenos Aires.
Former Reagan administration official on Trump and tariff strategy…“Reagan went through the same situation in 1981 and 1982… budget cuts, deregulation, tax reform… lots of folks complained but all of it happened…because it had to.
“We are running a $1 trillion trade deficit… $290 billion China, $230 billion EU, $130 billion Mexico and $80 billion Canada. I know everyone embraces the law of comparative advantage… but let’s get serious… these countries are using subsidies, non-tariff trade barriers, VAT taxes, etc., which disadvantage U.S. producers and limit our market access. In ag alone we are running a nearly $50 billion ag trade deficit… and the trend is likely to get worse.
“Meanwhile we have a $36 trillion total federal debt… adding $1.5-2 trillion a year to this number. We are spending more on the interest on our debt than on defense. The Social Security trust fund won’t be able to make full payments by 2035… Medicare Hospital trust fund facing the same dilemma in 2036.
“Do we as a Nation have a choice? You may argue with the approach, the tactics… but can we afford to simply keep on the path we are on with ballooning Federal debt and growing U.S. trade deficits?”
Trade tough: Trump’s tariff push sparks global buzz…White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt signaled a bold new wave of tariffs in an announcement expected Wednesday, though she didn’t specify how many countries would be affected. The move, she said, is aimed at countering what the U.S. considers decades of unfair trade practices. Leavitt said there would be no exemptions for farmers.
Leavitt pointed to specific examples, including Japan’s 700% tariff on U.S. rice, India’s 100% tariff on American agricultural goods, and Canada’s nearly 300% tariff on U.S. butter and cheese. India, she added, has already offered to reduce some of its tariffs to ease tensions with Trump. “It’s put a lot of Americans out of business and out of work over the past several decades,” Leavitt said. “It’s time for reciprocity.”
Leavitt also brushed off concerns about recent market volatility, saying Trump remains focused on working-class Americans, not Wall Street fluctuations. “The president has always said the stock market is a snapshot of a moment in time and he’s doing what’s best for Main Street,” she said.
Rural recoil: Trump’s cuts & tariffs rattle his farmer base…In a detailed report by the Wall Street Journal (link, rural support for President Trump is showing cracks as his second-term policies — marked by spending freezes and looming tariffs — begin to hit America’s heartland where it hurts most: the farm.
Farmers react. Beekeeper and Army veteran Jim Hartman of Linden, North Carolina, once optimistic about his 2025 prospects, is now facing a $100,000 blow to his revenue. USDA’s decision to phase out pandemic-era food programs, along with freezing conservation and climate-related funding, has upended his business. “Stuff like this is pushing me left,” said Hartman, a lifelong Republican. “The people he’s appointed and the way they’re going about things, it’s not OK.”
Across the country, farmers are contending with a trifecta of challenges: suspended federal funding, shrinking labor availability due to increased deportations, and new tariffs targeting major trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump has dubbed April 2 “Liberation Day,” promising to unveil a fresh round of tariffs — with no exemptions for farmers. “It’s hitting us on all fronts,” said Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association. “You’re talking about the potential of a flat-out crisis in rural America and the farm economy.”
The administration’s freezing of billions in Biden-era agricultural and climate program funding has left many small-scale producers scrambling. The WSJ account noted that Maryland vegetable grower Michael Protas is waiting on a USDA reimbursement for solar panels after taking out a $100,000 loan, while North Carolina farmer Patrick Brown has put up land as collateral just to buy seed and fertilizer. “Buying seeds and fertilizer before planting begins in April pretty much has wiped all my savings out,” said Brown.
Trump’s aggressive trade agenda has reignited fears of a replay of the 2018-2019 trade war, which cost American farmers more than $27 billion in export losses. China has since shifted much of its soybean purchases to Brazil — market share that American farmers haven’t reclaimed. “It’s kind of scary because I really don’t know what my new crop will be worth if we’re in the midst of a trade war,” Minnesota corn and soy farmer David Legvold told the WSJ.
Despite White House reassurances that Trump “has farmers’ backs,” many remain unconvinced. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized on Fox Business that “real change takes disruption,” while Trump encouraged farmers to prepare to sell domestically: “To the Great Farmers of the United States: get ready to start making a lot of agricultural products to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Have fun!” But critics argue that without structural changes — like immigration reform and infrastructure investment — Trump’s vision is out of touch with agricultural reality.
Political implication: With 54% of farmers opposing Trump’s tariffs (AgWeb poll), rural support could be at risk if the economic pain continues into the summer, the WSJ article concluded.
Republicans eye budget to cushion tariff blow…As former President Donald Trump prepares to launch a new wave of reciprocal tariffs, House Republican leaders are urging swift passage of their budget to help offset short-term economic pain — especially in politically sensitive states like Michigan. “We are going to have some short-term discomfort for those long-term gains,” said House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) in an interview with Bloomberg Government on Monday. She likened the anticipated market reaction to “second-day soreness after a workout.”
With Trump’s tariffs set to take effect soon, McClain acknowledged the risk of economic blowback — particularly in her home state of Michigan, a critical swing state and the heart of the U.S. auto industry. Automotive leaders, including MichAuto, have already voiced concern over potential tariffs on imported vehicles and parts.
Amid market jitters, McClain emphasized the need for fiscal action. “It’s so incumbent upon us to get the budget passed,” she said, describing the reconciliation process as something the GOP can “control” amid external trade shocks.
She also cautioned Senate Republicans against overhauling the House budget resolution, warning that deep spending cuts could alienate members in her chamber.
The message is clear: GOP leaders are bracing for economic friction — but hope a unified budget strategy will provide political and market cover as Trump’s trade agenda ramps up once again.
Tax cuts and tariff plans: Key updates from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent…In an exclusive interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined the administration’s plans to extend the 2017 tax cuts permanently and introduce new measures inspired by President Donald Trump’s campaign promises. Bessent emphasized, “We’re going to make it permanent, and then we’re going to layer on President Trump’s campaign promises — no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, no tax on overtime, and we’re going to make purchasing an American car tax deductible again.”
Additionally, Bessent confirmed that Trump will unveil a reciprocal tariff plan on Wednesday, April 2. The initiative aims to encourage trading partners to lower tariffs, eliminate non-tariff barriers, halt currency manipulation, and end labor subsidies. According to Bessent, “Everyone will have the opportunity to lower their tariffs, lower their non-tariff barriers, stop the currency manipulation, stop subsidizing labor.”
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins highlights biofuels, trade, and farmer support during Iowa visit…Rollins engaged in a series of events and discussions centered on agriculture, biofuels, trade policy, and farmer support. Key topics and comments made during her trip:
Biofuel infrastructure funding· Rollins announced $537 million in funding under the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP) to support 543 biofuel infrastructure projects across 29 states. This funding aims to expand access to higher ethanol blends like E15, benefiting both farmers and consumers by increasing demand for corn and reducing fuel costs. (See related item below.)· Speaking at the Elite Octane ethanol plant in Atlantic, Iowa, Rollins emphasized the importance of biofuels for rural prosperity and energy security. She highlighted President Trump’s commitment to supporting farmers and promoting domestic energy production.
Trade policy and potential farmer aid· Rollins addressed concerns about potential retaliatory tariffs as President Trump prepares to announce new global tariffs. She expressed hope that renegotiations would benefit farmers but acknowledged that USDA is preparing for possible trade-aid payments if agricultural exports are negatively impacted.· Rollins stated that the administration is working to ensure farmers are represented in trade negotiations and is ready to provide financial support if needed, though she noted there is less funding available compared to the previous trade war under Trump’s first term. According to Radio Iowa, Rollins said the Trump administration is planning another round of market disruption payments if the tariffs the president announces on Tuesday lead to a downturn in ag exports. “As soon as we fully understand the consequences, positive and otherwise, of these negotiations/renegotiations, we’ll have more announcements on that,” she said during a news conference on a farm near Waukee. Rollins, though, indicated there’s less money available for the payments than there was in the first Trump administration when U.S. ag exports to China fell due to a trade dispute. “(Trump) was elected with the idea of tariffs being one of the top tools in his tool kit to realign the American economy, to put Americans first,” Rollins said, “but I also know that that president was proud last time that then USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue, through some mechanisms through the USDA, was able to ensure that many of our farmers were made whole through those negotiations.”
Support for farmers and rural economy· Rollins criticized past USDA spending on nonessential grants and emphasized redirecting resources toward critical agricultural needs, such as addressing avian flu and protecting livestock.· She signaled plans to open new international markets for U.S. agricultural products through upcoming trips to countries like Brazil, India, Japan, Peru, and the United Kingdom (link for details).
Ethanol policy advocacy· Rollins championed higher ethanol blends as a cornerstone of rural economic growth, stating that E15 plays a crucial role in reducing fuel costs and supporting American farmers. She rejected the notion that biofuel policies are solely driven by environmental benefits but highlighted their economic advantages.
Engagement with Iowa agricultural leaders· Rollins toured an ethanol plant in Atlantic, a hog farm near Waukee, and a hybrid seed company in Newton before delivering the keynote speech at the Iowa Ag Leaders Dinner in Ankeny. She was joined by prominent Iowa officials, including Governor Kim Reynolds, Sen. Joni Ernst, Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig.
A look at Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) funding levels…The current level is around $15 billion now, but at the end of the fiscal year (Sept. 30), the level will be around $5 billion post ARC and PLC payouts. The CCC has permanent borrowing authority from the U.S. Treasury, capped at $30 billion since 1987. It can also borrow from private lending agencies, though this is less common. The borrowed funds are used to finance various agricultural programs, including price support, conservation initiatives, etc. Congress replenishes the CCC annually for its net realized losses — expenses that cannot be recovered, such as commodity sales costs, uncollectible loans, transportation expenses, and farm program payments. These appropriations restore the borrowing authority used in the previous fiscal year. The CCC’s financial operations are overseen by the USDA Secretary of Agriculture and a Board of Directors, ensuring alignment with agricultural policy goals set by Congress.