Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Soybean hedgers: Exit short-dated calls... With the 2023-24 marketing year and old-crop soybean sales completed, we advise hedgers to claim the remaining premium in the October $10.50 short-dated serial call options covering 25% of 2023-crop. Our entry was 18.5 cents and our exit was 5.5 cents.
Allendale, Linn Group release crop forecasts ahead of USDA’s September estimates... Allendale forecasts the U.S. corn crop at 15.097 billion bu. on a yield of 182.53 bu. per acre. The firm forecasts U.S. soybean production at 4.601 billion bu. on a yield of 53.3 bu. per acre. Allendale said its estimates were based on producer calculated yields in 27 states.
Linn Group forecasts the corn crop at 15.029 billion bu. on an average yield of 182.25 bu. per acre. The soybean crop is estimated at 4.585 billion bu. on a yield of 53.15 bu. per acre. Linn Group said its forecasts are based on customer input, field observations, weather analysis and satellite data.
USDA’s initial estimates in August were 15.147 billion bu. for corn on a yield of 183.1 bu. per acre and 4.589 billion bu. for soybeans on a yield of 53.2 bu. per acre.
Canola Council of Canada statement on China’s anti-dumping investigation on canola seed imports... China’s investigation into canola shipments from Canada is part of Beijing’s response to Canada’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum.
“China is an important and valued market for Canadian canola,” says Chris Davison, Canola Council of Canada (CCC) president & CEO. “We are confident that an investigation into Canada’s canola trade with China will demonstrate alignment with and reinforce our support for rules-based trade.”
CCC is awaiting further details on the investigation and will work closely with the federal government on this situation. “Working to maintain open and predictable trade for canola is a top priority of the CCC,” says Davison. “We will continue to engage on this issue to support market access and competitiveness for Canadian canola in this key market.”
Ethanol push turns India into corn importer... A push by India to make more corn-based ethanol has turned Asia’s top corn exporter into a net importer for the first time in decades, squeezing local poultry producers and scrambling global supply chains. The jump in import demand comes after India in January hiked the procurement price of ethanol made from corn to drive a shift away from sugarcane-based ethanol for blending in gasoline. With the government promoting ethanol in gasoline to reduce carbon emissions and trying to ensure ample supply of cheap sugar in the world’s biggest market for the sweetener, India appears set to become a permanent net importer of corn. The prospect of India ramping up corn imports is likely to support global prices, which are trading near four-year lows.
Crushed by soaring feed costs as local corn prices rise far above global benchmarks, India’s poultry producers want the government to remove duties on imports and lift its ban on genetically modified (GM) corn. The ban severely limits their buying options.
India usually exports 2 MMT to 4 MMT of corn, but in 2024, exports are expected to drop to 450,000 MT, while the country is set to import a record 1 MMT, mainly from Myanmar and Ukraine, which grow non-GM corn. Meanwhile, traditional export markets such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Nepal and Malaysia, which bought corn from India because of its prompt availability, are now compelled to source supplies from South America and the United States.
Nebraska’s largest feedlot to open amid local concerns, innovation claims... Blackshirt Feeders, soon to be Nebraska’s largest cattle feedlot, is preparing to receive cattle later this month, the Nebraska Examiner reports. The state-of-the-art facility near Haigler aims to expand to 150,000 head of cattle, featuring innovations like a rolled concrete base and biodigesters to produce methane from manure. While local officials and residents express both hope and skepticism, concerns remain over water use, increased traffic and potential environmental impact. The $200 million project could boost local employment but faces scrutiny from environmental experts and smaller operators.
USDA advances pre-rule on fed cattle market pricing to OMB... USDA has sent a pre-rule to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to gather input on addressing pricing issues in the fed cattle market. The rule aims to enhance price discovery, transparency and protect producers from unfair practices and market manipulation. The pre-rule stage will assess whether regulatory action is necessary or if alternative solutions exist. A proposed rule is expected by this month, with a final rule anticipated by May 2025. However, the November elections could affect any unfinished rulemaking if there is a change in control of the White House.
U.S. food insecurity worsens in 2023... Food insecurity in the U.S. rose to 13.5% of households in 2023, up from 12.8% in 2022, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service, marking a concerning trend just below the 2014 peak. Approximately 18 million households were food insecure, with higher rates among families with children, Black households and rural areas. The expiration of pandemic-era support programs, inflation and economic challenges are key factors. The 2023 rate of 13.5% is significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels of 10.5% in 2019. Experts are urging for expanded nutrition assistance programs and reinstating policies like the Child Tax Credit to combat the rise.
WSJ: Harris plans lower capital-gains tax increase, breaking from Biden... Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is set to propose a more moderate increase in the top capital-gains tax rate, deviating from President Joe Biden’s plan, the Wall Street Journal reports. While Biden aimed to nearly double the rate to 44.6%, Harris’ team is discussing a 28% rate to encourage investment and support small businesses, but that could change. Biden wanted a near doubling of the all-in top capital-gains rate to reach 44.6% — the same 39.6% top rate he wants for ordinary income plus a 5% investment-income tax. It wasn’t immediately known whether Harris’ 28% would include that additional levy.
Under current law, the top long-term capital-gains rate is 23.8% — 20% plus a 3.8% tax on investment income. It is owed only when taxpayers sell assets, or realize gains, and unrealized gains escape the income tax if passed to heirs. The Biden budget tax unrealized gains at death above a $5 million per person exclusion and tax unrealized gains during life for people with a net worth of more than $100 million. The move signals a shift in Harris’ economic stance as she prepares for a debate with former President Donald Trump.
China’s anti-subsidy probe on EU dairy imports offers limited relief to struggling domestic sector... China’s investigation into EU dairy imports aims to alleviate pressure on local farmers, but the impact will be minimal as it targets only a small portion of imports, Bloomberg reports. The dairy sector is grappling with oversupply, declining demand and falling milk prices, with 80% of farmers facing losses. China’s dairy production surged 40% in the past decade, but economic slowdown and shifting consumer habits have exacerbated the industry’s challenges. While curbing imports makes strategic sense, the measure is seen as a response to EU tariffs on Chinese goods.
China’s economic troubles deepen as growth concerns mount... China’s economy continues to struggle, with recent data showing a slowdown in services activity for August and four straight months of contraction in manufacturing. Global investment banks have lowered growth forecasts, casting doubt on China’s ability to meet its 5% annual growth target. Western companies like Volkswagen are feeling the pressure of weak demand, though many, including Germany, continue to invest in China despite rising competition and trade tensions. Germany’s increased investment contrasts with the EU’s more cautious stance on China, creating a policy divide.