Evening Report | September 25, 2024

Top stories for Sept. 25, 2024

Pro Farmer's Evening Report
Pro Farmer’s Evening Report
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Soybean producers: Increase 2024-crop sales... November soybean futures have rallied around $1.00 from the August lows and hit our target of $10.50 in late-session trade. We advise soybean hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 10% of expected 2024-crop production to get to 20% sold in the cash market. Our next sales target is $10.75 in November futures.

Ag groups urge White House to block potential East, Gulf Coast port strike... Dozens of ag groups including the American Farm Bureau Federation, Renewable Fuels Association and American Chemistry Council urged the White House to take action to avert a potential strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports that could begin Oct. 1. In a letter, the groups said they believe “the time has come for the U.S. government to intervene and ensure port operations do not stop” to prevent damage to U.S. agriculture and the economy.

Slow winter wheat seeding rate clouds Russia’s wheat crop outlook... Winter wheat planting rates in Russia have fallen to an 11-year low, clouding the outlook for the 2025 harvest, Black Sea consultancy SovEcon said. It said slow planting in the South and Volga regions are 400,000 hectares behind last year, while the Central region is 200,000 hectares behind.

Over the last 30 days, less than 20% of the normal precipitation levels have fallen in the European part of Russia. The dry weather is a restraining factor for planting and poses a threat to the already sown fields. In the next two weeks, main weather models forecast continued dry conditions in the Volga and Central regions, with slightly wetter weather in the South.

SovEcon said, “Given the widespread moisture deficiency, it is highly likely that crops will enter winter in poor condition. The Volga region, where the vegetation period ends earliest and frosts begin first, is particularly at risk.”

Argentine farmers seen favoring soybeans over corn in 2024-25... Argentine farmers are expected to plant more soybeans at the expense of corn for the 2024-25 growing season given soybeans’ profitability and as fears of leafhoppers (corn stunt disease) persist, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said. As a result, the exchange expects Argentina’s soybean production to rise around 3% to 52 MMT. Corn production is expected to decline 5% to 47 MMT.

The exchange projects Argentina’s wheat production at 18.6 MMT.

USDA lowers food price forecast for 2024, raises outlook for next year... USDA revised its forecast for food prices in 2024, expecting a smaller increase than previously predicted. All food costs this year are now projected to rise 2.2%, up from 2.3% in August, with grocery prices expected to climb by 1.1%, down from 1.2%. Restaurant prices are still forecast to rise 4.1%. In 2025, grocery prices are expected to rise 1.6%, a significant increase from the 1.1% predicted in August. Grocery costs are expected to rise 0.8% next year, while restaurant prices are projected to increase 3.1%.

In the new forecast, USDA said beef prices are expected to rise 5.2% this year and 2.5% in 2025, down from 5.6% and 3.0%, respectively, in last month’s outlook. Pork is forecast to rise 1.3% this year and 1.2% next year, down from 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively, last month.

House to vote on and pass CR through Dec. 20... The House this evening will vote on a three-month continuing resolution that will keep federal agencies open through Dec. 20. The vote will be held under suspension, meaning a two-thirds majority is needed to pass. It will pass. Senate leaders locked in a time agreement that gives the chamber two hours to consider the CR once it formally receives the bill from the House.

Aside from the pending Sept. 30 deadline for a temporary spending measure, Hurricane Helene is another factor that has lawmakers itching to leave Washington, particularly those from Florida and Southeast states. The House will be out after today (the Senate a bit later) until mid-November (either Nov. 11 or Nov. 18).

Canada updates old-, new-crop wheat balance sheets... Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) updated its Canadian wheat balance sheets for 2023-24 and 2024-25 based on data available as of Sept. 18.

For wheat (excluding durum), AAFC pegs 2023-24 ending stocks at 4.0 MMT, down 21% from last year. Exports were the second highest on record at 21.8 MMT, 6% more than the previous year. For 2024-25, AAFC projects wheat exports declining 6% to 20.5 MMT. Ending stocks are expected to hold at 4.0 MMT.

Production of all principal field crops is estimated to have increased 1.8% from last year, which would be 2.4% above the previous five-year average. On the Canadian Prairies, overall production is estimated to have increased 3.0% and be 2.2% above the previous five-year average. For most principal field crops, better yields compared to 2023 drove these production expectations, combined with stable-to-higher areas for some crops. Wheat production is expected to increase 4.1%, oilseeds production remains largely unchanged, coarse grains production is estimated to decrease 4.4% and pulse and special crops production is estimated to increase by 29.5%.

U.S. to announce billions in Ukraine aid amid congressional resistance... The U.S. plans to commit billions in aid to Ukraine in the coming days, ahead of the funding’s expiration after Congress omitted it from the stopgap bill to keep the government open. Internal GOP divisions in the House prevented its inclusion. The Senate could address the measure as early as Thursday, coinciding with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S. Capitol.

OPEC forecasts rising oil demand through 2050, citing slower EV adoption... OPEC projects global oil demand will continue to grow into 2050, reaching 120.1 million barrels per day, up from 102.2 million last year, as the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and greener fuels slows. The group anticipates oil will maintain nearly 30% of the energy mix and stated, “There is no peak oil demand on the horizon.” OPEC emphasized that new energy sources can only be phased in at scale when fully ready.