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Extended weather outlook raises potential red flags for U.S. winter wheat areas... The 90-day forecast from the National Weather Service (NWS) indicates increased chances of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precip across most of the Central and Southern Plains through December, with the greatest odds of warm and dry weather in southwestern areas of the region. Northern HRW wheat areas are expected to see “equal chances” for temperatures and precip through December. SRW wheat areas are expected to see above-normal temps through the forecast period, with “equal chances” for precip.
As of Sept. 17, USDA estimated 58% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was experiencing drought conditions. Aside from winter wheat areas of the PNW, the Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for broad continuation or expansion of drought in winter wheat areas.
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Details on Brazil’s increased wheat import quota... As we reported in “First Thing Today,” Brazil’s foreign trade chamber raised the quota for wheat imports through the end of the year to avoid potential shortages. Brazil has an annual wheat quota from outside the Mercosur trade bloc of 750,000 MT. Brazilian Wheat Industry Association (Abitrigo) said the additional quota of 250,000 MT would likely be filled by the U.S. and Russia. Through August, Brazil imported 501,000 MT of wheat from Russia, 256,000 MT from the U.S. and 35,000 MT from Canada.
IGC lowers global wheat, corn production forecasts... The International Grains Council (IGC) trimmed its forecast for 2024-25 global wheat production by 1 MMT to 798 MMT, though that would still be up 3 MMT (0.4%) from last year. IGC cut the EU wheat crop 2.6 MMT, which was only partially offset by a 1.7-MMT increase to Australia’s production outlook.
IGC cut 2024-25 global corn production by 2 MMT to 1.224 billion MT, which would be down 3 MMT (0.2%) from last year. IGC cut the EU corn crop 1.6 MMT, while U.S. production increased 1 MMT.
IGC kept its forecast for 2024-25 global soybean production at 419 MMT, which would be up 26 MMT (6.6%) from last year.
Stabenow resists emergency ag aid before new farm bill... Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) is pushing to finalize a full five-year farm bill rather than pursue an ad hoc emergency assistance package for farmers, despite pressure from commodity groups and some lawmakers. Stabenow believes it’s “too early” for emergency relief talks, focusing instead on securing long-term legislation. Ranking member John Boozman (R-Ark.) agrees discussions about an extension can wait until after the election, while others, like Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), are advocating for disaster relief to bridge the gap before the new bill is authorized.
Stabenow said the legislation must consider public nutrition and agricultural programs equally.
Senior staffers from the House and Senate Agriculture committees continue to discuss elements of a new farm bill. Typically, staffers resolve technical matters, while the Republican and Democratic leaders of the committees decide the major issues. If the committee leaders agree on an outline of the new bill, staff workers could have text ready for consideration in November, Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), ranking on the House Agriculture Committee, said last week.
Johnson in talks with Trump amid gov’t shutdown threat... House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is consulting with former President Trump about the potential government shutdown and options for GOP lawmakers as the Sept. 30 funding deadline nears. Trump has urged a shutdown if Republicans can’t get the SAVE Act included in a short-term spending bill, a measure opposed by Democrats and the White House. Johnson’s proposal tying the SAVE Act to a six-month continuing resolution (CR) failed, with several Republicans voting against it. While Johnson aims to avoid a shutdown, he must balance GOP demands and Trump’s influence while negotiating with Democrats for a short-term funding solution that most say eventually will go into December. “Time is short, our staffs are in communication with each other,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said. “What occurs over the next few days will be determinative as to whether we can find the common ground necessary to fund the government.”
In the Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he’s teeing up votes for next week on a legislative vehicle for a CR. He plans to file cloture on the vehicle, with an initial procedural vote slated for Monday. Speaking on the Senate floor, Schumer said his move “will enable us to prevent a Trump shutdown in the event that Speaker Johnson does not work with us in a bipartisan, bicameral manner.”
Senate Republicans unveil 2025 plan to counter China’s global influence... Senate Republicans, led by Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), introduced their 2025 legislative roadmap to crack down on China’s growing global influence. The plan, known as the STRATEGIC Act, includes antitrust reforms to curb China’s predatory economic practices, increased support for Taiwan and new measures to counter Chinese influence in U.S. think tanks and universities. It also targets Beijing’s harassment of U.S. diplomats and restricts the use of Chinese drones in the Middle East. The package lays the foundation for GOP strategy if they regain Senate control.
China, EU agree to intensify talks ahead of EV tariff vote... The European Union and China agreed Thursday to intensify discussions ahead of looming European tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). The EU made clear to China it will continue its formal investigation into unfair subsidies for EVs made in China, but “the two sides agreed to take a renewed look at price undertakings,” according to Olof Gill, a spokesperson for the European Commission. EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao the EU probe “is bound by the WTO legal deadlines.”
The vote later this month would pave the way for the duties to kick in from November for five years unless 15 member states representing 65% of the bloc’s population oppose the move.
Dombrovskis expressed the EU’s strong concerns regarding China’s trade defense investigations against EU imports of pork, dairy and brandy.