Evening Report | September 16, 2024

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Corn conditions unexpectedly improve... USDA rated 65% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, up one percentage point from last week. Analysts expected a one-point decline. The “poor” to “very poor” rating held at 12%.

USDA reported 85% of the crop was dented (84% average) and 45% was mature (38%). Harvest advanced four percentage points to 9%, three points ahead of the five-year average for mid-September.

Soybean conditions decline as expected... USDA rated 64% of the soybean crop as “good” to “excellent,” down one point from last week, as analysts expected. The “poor” to “very poor” rating increased one point to 11%.

USDA reported 44% of the crop was dropping leaves, four points ahead of average for mid-September. Harvest reached 6% as of Sunday, double the normal pace.

Cotton conditions decline... USDA rated 39% of the cotton crop as “good” to “excellent,” down one point from last week. The “poor” to “very poor” rating declined two points to 26%. The Texas crop was rated 28% in the top two categories and 26% in the bottom two.

USDA reported 54% of the cotton crop had bolls open, four points ahead of average, including large amounts in the Delta, Mid-South and Southeast where remnants from Hurricane Francine dumped heavy rainfall during the weekend.

Cotton harvest advanced just two points to 10%, though that was still two points ahead of average.

Spring wheat harvest moves closer to done... USDA reported spring wheat harvest reached 92%, two points ahead of average. Harvest was done in South Dakota and Washington. Top producer North Dakota stood at 88%, one point ahead of average.

Winter wheat planting slightly ahead of average... USDA said winter wheat seeding increased eight percentage points over the past week to 14%. That was one point ahead of average for mid-September. Planting stood at 15% in Texas (13% average), 6% in Oklahoma (10%) and 9% in Kansas (7%).

Lower Mississippi River levels to remain low post-Francine... Remnants of Hurricane Francine produced significant rains across the northern Delta and Tennessee River basin, but World Weather Inc. says water levels on the lower Mississippi river will rise for only a few days before falling again. The forecaster says rainfall was not likely enough to remove barge restrictions, especially with hot, dry weather forecast to return.

World Weather noted rains will be beneficial for late-maturing and double-crop soybeans in the Mid-South and Delta but came too late to greatly impact much of the crop. Cotton fiber quality will decline due to the heavy rainfall.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight unlikely to develop into major named storm... Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight is expected to make landfall near Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, this evening. However, the storm is disorganized and not expected to develop into a tropical depression or storm. Still, World Weather notes: “In the next 72 hours, between 2.00 and 4.00 inches of rain are expected across much of North Carolina and northern South Carolina. Heavier totals between 4.00 and 12.00 inches are forecast for southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina as the storm moves inland. Flash-flooding will be likely, particularly if the heavier totals near the coast verify. High winds will cause some property damage as well. Cotton in counties closer to the coast may be vulnerable to quality decline or boll rot if rain persists as expected, though widespread impacts are not anticipated.”

NOPA August soybean crush falls to nearly three-year low... Member of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 158.0 million bu. of soybeans during August, well shy of the 171.3 million bu. analysts expected and the lowest monthly figure since September 2021. Crush fell 24.9 million bu. (13.6%) from July and 3.4 million bu. (2.1%) from last year.

NOPA implies the full July crush of 166.0 million bushels. As a result, we lowered our 2023-24 crush forecast to 2.286 billion bu., 9 million bu. less than USDA’s estimate this month.

Amid the sharp slowdown in processing, soyoil stocks fell to a 10-month low of 1.138 billion pounds.

Canada cuts canola crop estimate, wheat forecast unchanged... Statistics Canada (StatCan) released updated Canadian crop production estimates for 2024, still using yield model forecasts based on satellite imagery and agroclimatic data. Canadian wheat production is projected to grow 4.1% from last year to 34.3 MMT, unchanged from StatCan’s estimate on Aug 28. StatCan lowered its canola production forecast about 500,000 MT from two weeks ago to 19.0 MMT, which would be 1.1% from last year.

Senate Democrats call for hefty rate cut to avoid recession risk... Senate Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), Sheldon Whitehouse (R.H.) and John Hickenlooper (Colo.), urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this week. In a letter, they warned that being too cautious could push the economy toward recession and called for more aggressive upfront cuts to protect the labor market. The request comes as the Fed faces political pressure while preparing its first rate cut since 2020. A 75-basis-point cut would be a significant move, typically reserved for economic emergencies.

U.S. backs low-carbon ammonia with $1.56 billion DOE loan for Indiana project... The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) committed $1.56 billion to a low-carbon ammonia project in Indiana, reflecting growing interest in reducing emissions from ammonia production. The project will likely use carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to produce cleaner ammonia, which is gaining traction as a sustainable fertilizer and fuel option. This aligns with broader market moves, such as ExxonMobil’s low-carbon ammonia projects, and aims to support decarbonization in agriculture, industry and energy sectors.