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NOPA crush declines sharply…NOPA crush for February came in at 177.87 million bushels, down 22.513 million bushels from January. It was bearish against expectations, coming in below pre-report expectations of 185.229 million bushels, according to a Reuters poll. It was below year-ago crush by 7.359 million bushels (4.5%). The per day crush pace of 6.353 million bushels was down from last month.
NOPA implies the full February crush of about 190.0 million bushels, if that is confirmed in the April 1 report from USDA, it would fall short of last year’s 193.442 million bushels. USDA forecasts crush at 2,410 million bushels, up 5.3% from 2023-24.
NOPA soyoil stocks totaled 1,503 million bushels and were up 228.71 million pounds from last month’s figure. Stocks were well above the average trade estimate of 1,386 million pounds in the Reuters survey.
Canadian PM Carney signals trade progress amid U.S. tensions…Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, in his first press conference, acknowledged progress in U.S. trade talks despite ongoing tensions fueled by President Trump’s tariffs and provocative remarks about Canada’s sovereignty. U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods have led to retaliatory measures, straining relations. Trump has suggested Canada could become the 51st U.S. state, sparking backlash.
Carney is prioritizing European alliances to counterbalance U.S. influence.
Meanwhile, Carney ordered a review of the country’s contract for Lockheed Martin Corp.'s F-35 fighter jets — a purchase that’s supposed to send more than $13 billion to the U.S. manufacturer. The scope of work is supposed to be 88 fighters. Legal commitments are in place only for the first 16 of those. A spokesman said the goal of the review is to determine if that contract “is the best investment for Canada, and if there are other options that could better meet Canada’s needs.”
Of note: Carney does not plan an immediate visit to Washington but hopes to speak with Trump soon. With an election on the horizon, Carney’s economic expertise and diplomatic maneuvers will be key in managing trade tensions and reinforcing Canada’s global partnerships.
Transatlantic tariff conflict threatens $9.5 trillion business ties... The U.S./European tariff conflict is putting at risk a transatlantic business relationship worth $9.5 trillion annually, according to the American Chamber of Commerce to the EU (AmCham EU). Its latest Transatlantic Economy report highlights record trade figures in 2024 but warns that 2025 could bring both opportunities and risks. Recent U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, EU retaliation plans, and President Trump’s threats of 200% tariffs on European wine and spirits have escalated tensions. AmCham stresses that investment, rather than trade, is the true benchmark of economic ties, with U.S. and European firms deeply intertwined.
The report warns that intra-firm trade, crucial for economies like Germany and Ireland, could be hit, with potential spillover effects on services, data flows, and energy — especially given Europe’s reliance on U.S. LNG. Experts caution that the disruption could lead to inefficiencies and undermine global competitiveness.
French PM questions EU tariff on American bourbon…French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou admitted the EU likely made a mistake in targeting American whiskey in its response to U.S. tariffs. “A very old (product) list has been retrieved without it being checked like it should have been,” he told France Inter radio. Bayrou called for negotiations to prevent further economic damage, particularly to France’s cognac industry, after President Donald Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European wines and spirits.
European producers, already impacted by Beijing’s tariffs on French cognac, are concerned about further trade disputes. Talks with Washington and Beijing are expected, though no dates have been set.
Of note: The EU’s first round of counter-tariffs against U.S. goods including bourbon is due to take effect on April 1.
Bessent downplays market fears but won’t rule out recession…Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in the stock market despite recent declines, calling market corrections “healthy” and “normal.” Speaking on Meet the Press, he emphasized that long-term growth depends on tax policy, deregulation, and energy security. However, he acknowledged that a U.S. recession remains a possibility, stating, “There are no guarantees.” Meanwhile, new NBC polling shows voter disapproval of President Trump’s economic performance, with concerns about inflation and declining consumer confidence weighing on markets. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all ended last week in the red. More economic analysis in items below.
Fed meeting in focus: Markets eye policy signals… The March 18-19 FOMC meeting is the key event of the week, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing data-driven decision-making over external policy shifts. Powell has described the U.S. economy as stable, with a strong labor market and low layoffs outside tech and government. Markets do not anticipate a rate change from the current Fed-funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, but the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be scrutinized for signs of a 2025 GDP slowdown, rising unemployment, or inflation concerns. U.S. money markets now price in the potential for three 25 basis-point reductions, having previously priced in only two or even one earlier this year, LSEG data show. Some analysts conjecture the Fed may also signal an end to its balance sheet reduction, having cut reserves by $2 trillion since mid-2022.
Of note: Interest-rate decisions are also due in Japan, the UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Brazil, Taiwan and Indonesia.
Trump to speak Tuesday with Putin on Ukraine ceasefire plan... President Donald Trump announced he would speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to seek an agreement on ending Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022. “A lot of work’s been done over the weekend,” Trump said aboard Air Force One on Sunday. “We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance.” His comments followed a visit by his envoy, Steve Witkoff, to Moscow for direct negotiations with Putin. Ukraine has already agreed to a 30-day ceasefire during Saudi-hosted talks, contingent on Russia’s participation. Putin’s stance remains unclear.
The Kremlin confirmed that Putin is due to speak to Trump on Tuesday amid the U.S. push for a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. “Such a conversation is being prepared for Tuesday,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters on Monday, according to the Interfax news service. He declined to comment further on the planned discussions.
Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that 25 allied leaders have agreed to further tighten economic restrictions on Russia.
U.S. seeks European egg imports amid high prices…USDA has reached out to Denmark and other European nations to explore egg imports as domestic prices surge due to a worsening bird flu outbreak, Reuters reported. Wholesale egg prices in the U.S. have hit record highs, rising 59% year-over-year in February, despite President Donald Trump’s earlier pledge to lower them.
A letter reviewed by Reuters shows that U.S. officials formally inquired about European egg supplies in late February, with follow-up requests to Denmark in early March. However, the Danish Egg Association noted that Europe is also facing shortages due to increased consumption and avian flu.
The move comes amid broader economic tensions, including new U.S. tariffs on European countries and Trump’s threats of economic sanctions against Denmark over Greenland. Turkey has already begun exporting eggs to the U.S., while Washington is pursuing a $1 billion effort to address the crisis. The U.S. embassy in Copenhagen and the Department of Agriculture have not yet commented on the situation.
Stakeholders still buzzing about EPA’s major policy changes. EPA last Wednesday announced 31 moves to repeal environmental protections, shifting focus to economic growth. The Trump administration, led by EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, on March 12 announced plans to roll back dozens of key environmental regulations, including limits on air and water pollution, protections for wetlands (WOTUS), and the agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gases. In a video statement, Zeldin reframed the EPA’s mission as reducing costs for businesses and consumers, omitting references to environmental or public health protections.
The proposed deregulations, which will undergo a formal review process, have drawn sharp criticism from environmental advocates and Democrats, who argue they undermine efforts to combat climate change and protect public health.
Among the most significant changes, the EPA plans to challenge the legal basis for regulating carbon emissions, a move some experts say is unlikely to succeed but signals a dramatic shift in environmental policy.
Of note: The effort to revise EPA’s 2009 “endangerment finding” is a significant move because that legal opinion determines that greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health. This finding grants the agency the authority to regulate emissions from key sources like automobiles, factories, power plants, and oil and gas wells. If it were eliminated, EPA would lose its legal basis to enforce climate pollution regulations, making it much harder to address greenhouse gas emissions.