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Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... Compared to recent weeks, it was relatively quiet on the tariff/trade front. But that situation remains a primary concern for many markets and investors. The Trump administration is seeking to isolate China through negotiations with other trading partners. But China is also working diplomatic channels and trying to sign deals. China indicated some willingness to negotiate on trade if the U.S. agrees to some specific demands from Beijing. Meanwhile, the administration signaled it is exploring options for farmer aid if the trade war persists. Aside from trade happenings, there is an increasing focus on the U.S. growing season, with the winter wheat crop needing spring rainfall and portions of the central U.S. seeking drier conditions amid corn planting delays due to flooding and saturated soils. On the heels of USDA’s April Supply & Demand Report, we updated our old-crop balance sheets and take an initial look at 2025-26. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.
Happy Easter from Pro Farmer... Grain and livestock markets are closed for Good Friday. As a result, there will be no Pro Farmer reports on Friday. Government offices are open Friday, though there are no USDA reports scheduled. Pro Farmer wishes you a blessed Easter.
Cattle on Feed: Neutral... USDA estimated there were 11.638 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of April 1, down 188,000 head (1.6%) from year-ago. Placements rose 5.1% during March, while marketings increased 1.1%.
| Cattle on Feed Report | USDA(% of year-ago) | Average Estimate (% of year-ago) |
| On Feed on April 1 | 98.4 | 98.3 |
| Placements in March | 105.1 | 103.7 |
| Marketings in March | 101.1 | 100.7 |
Placements rose across all weight categories, with lightweights (under 600 lbs.) up 1.5%, 6-weights up 9.6%, 7-weights up 2.2%, 8-weights up 8.4%, 9-weights up 2.9% and heavyweights (1,000-plus lbs.) up 8.3%.
By state, placements increased 50,000 head in Nebraska, 30,000 head in Kansas, 5,000 head in Texas and 4,000 head in “other states,” while Colorado placed the same amount of cattle into feedlots as March 2024.
The quarterly breakdown of feedlot inventories showed steers down 8,000 head (0.1%) at 7.258 million head, while heifers declined 180,000 head (3.9%) to 4.380 million head.
The report data is neutral and won’t likely have much if any market impact, especially since traders won’t have a chance to trade it until Monday.
House Democrats warn SNAP cuts could derail farm bill reauthorization... House Democrats, led by Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), are warning that Republican proposals to slash $230 billion — primarily from SNAP — via the budget reconciliation measure could sabotage bipartisan efforts to pass a new farm bill. Craig said cutting a core title of the bill would eliminate a key pay-for and fracture the longstanding coalition of agriculture and nutrition advocates essential to farm bill passage.
Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) bluntly stated, “There will be no farm bill if SNAP is gutted.”
GOP leaders signaled openness to bypassing bipartisanship by including some farm provisions in their reconciliation plan. House Ag Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) rejected claims of benefit cuts, saying changes target errors and future adjustments.
Democrats are introducing legislation to block SNAP and Medicaid cuts, aiming to rally moderate GOP members. The farm bill, last passed in 2018, is already facing long odds amid economic strain, tariff impacts and funding disputes.
EU weighs export restrictions on U.S. if trade negotiations fail... The European Union is working on a proposal to introduce restrictions on some exports to the U.S. as a possible retaliatory tactic in the expansive trade war President Donald Trump initiated last month, Bloomberg reported. The restrictions would be used as a deterrent and only if negotiations with the U.S. — which has put new tariffs on around 380 billion euros ($432 billion) of EU goods — fail to produce a satisfactory outcome, according to people familiar with the plan.
An export restriction is one of several options the EU is considering, said people familiar with the situation. Other possibilities include additional lists of tariffs and limiting public procurement for American companies.
The people declined to elaborate on the specific restrictions the EU is considering and which sectors and products they would apply to.
IMF sees global growth hurt by trade tensions but no recession... Rising trade tensions and sweeping shifts in the global trading system will trigger downward revisions of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) economic forecasts but no global recession is expected, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. She gave no details about the expected revisions but warned that prolonged uncertainty would be costly and said the consequences of the trade reboot would be “significant.”
“Disruptions entail costs... our new growth projections will include notable markdowns but not recession,” she said in an address ahead of the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington next week.
Elevated uncertainty also raised the risk of financial market stress, Georgieva said, noting: “Everyone suffers if financial conditions worsen.”
Trump says U.S. to sign minerals deal with Ukraine next week... President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Ukraine would sign a deal on critical minerals next Thursday, in a step expected to keep Kyiv in good favor as the White House seeks to broker a quick ceasefire deal with Russia. The partnership agreement would grant the U.S. first claim on profits transferred into a special reconstruction investment fund that would be controlled by Washington.
“We have a minerals deal, which I guess is going to be signed on Thursday,” Trump said. “And I assume they’re going to live up to the deal.”
The announcement puts the agreement — which fell through after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy clashed with Trump in the Oval Office — back on track and suggests both sides have agreed to the contours of the accord governing postwar plans to exploit the country’s mineral deposits and rebuild its infrastructure.
Trump has demanded a joint U.S./Ukraine development deal as compensation for the weapons and other aid the U.S. provided under his predecessor Joe Biden.
ECB cuts interest rates... The European Central Bank (ECB) cut all three of its key interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the main refinancing rate to 2.40%, the deposit rate to 2.25% and the marginal lending facility to 2.65%. The decision reflects growing confidence that inflation is on track to return sustainably to the 2% target. Both headline and core inflation have continued to ease.
However, risks to the euro zone outlook remain, especially due to rising global trade tensions, which are hurting confidence and tightening financial conditions. ECB acknowledged that growth prospects have weakened and emphasized a data-dependent approach going forward.