Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Cotton producers: Increase 2024-crop sales... USDA cut its cotton crop estimate more than 300,000 bales and yet the ending stocks projection increased 100,000 bales on reduced usage. Given the demand struggles, the upside is likely limited and there may be more downside risk. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 10% of 2024-crop in the cash market to get to 35% sold. Be prepared to make additional sales on a test of the recent highs.
HRW wheat areas to receive timely rains, more needed... HRW wheat areas of the Central and Southern Plains will receive much-needed rain Friday through the weekend, easing drought conditions in the region. That will improve planting, emergence and crop development conditions for the HRW crop, though World Weather Inc. says additional rain must fall while soil temperatures are warm to get crops well established prior to winter dormancy.
Polar winds could intensify dry weather in Argentina... Stronger-than-usual Antarctic polar winds blowing over Argentina could further dry out the country’s agricultural heartland in the coming months, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange warned. The winds could cause a recent lack of rains to persist through the Southern Hemisphere’s spring and summer, the exchange said in its monthly weather report. Dry weather has already wilted the wheat crop and delayed corn planting.
The exchange said a large portion of Argentina’s interior farmland will receive below-average precipitation in December, with sporadic rains largely targeting the key agricultural region.
Harris/Walz campaign unveils rural agenda to boost healthcare and economy... The campaign focuses on improving healthcare, boosting the rural economy and supporting smaller farmers. Vice presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz unveiled the plan at a farm in Pennsylvania, criticizing Donald Trump’s policies for benefiting only large farmers. The campaign aims to reach rural voters through radio ads and interviews in key states. The agenda highlights the Biden administration’s efforts to expand rural broadband and infrastructure, contrasting with Trump’s approach, which critics argue favors corporate interests over small farmers.
Trump defends economic plans, dismisses criticism in interview... Donald Trump defended his economic policies during an interview at the Economic Club of Chicago. He emphasized his plans for dramatic tariff increases and closer consultation with the Federal Reserve, asserting these measures would lead to substantial economic growth. Key points:
Economic policies
· Trump dismissed economists’ predictions of negative impacts from his policies.
· He argued that proposed tariffs would not disrupt supply chains but encourage domestic manufacturing.
· The former president claimed his leadership would inspire loyalty from allies.
· Trump said: “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff.”
Trump made clear that he’s not just taking aim at China, but longtime U.S. allies and trade-treaty partners as well.
· “Our country’s being threatened by Mexico,” he said.
· Trade deficits with Europe “are crazy, and we’re not going to have them anymore.”
· “Our allies have taken advantage of us more so than our enemies.”
· Past trade deals were “so bad” that they were overseen by people who were “either very stupid” or corrupt, he said.
· “I was just getting started” with tariff hikes in his term as president, Trump said.
Of note: Trump got in a heated exchange with Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait when talking about tariffs — telling the journalist he’s been “wrong” his entire life. Micklethwait repeatedly asked Trump how he would enact high tariffs on foreign companies without getting an economic blowback on the American consumer in exchange — as the current U.S. economy is intertwined with China and the EU. “The overall effect could be massive,” the editor said, adding that Trump is set to launch the U.S. into a “trade war.” Trump replied of his proposed policy: “It’s going to have a massive effect — positive effect. It’s going to be a positive effect… It must be hard for you to spend 25 years talking about tariffs as being negative and then have somebody explain to you that you’re totally wrong,” the former president jabbed. “The higher the tariff, the more likely it is that the company will come into the United States and build a factory in the United States so it doesn’t have to pay the tariff,” Trump said.
Federal Reserve and deficit
· Trump suggested he would seek greater influence over the Federal Reserve if re-elected.
· He downplayed concerns about the federal deficit, claiming his economic platform would outpace costs.
Immigration and national security
· Trump acknowledged business concerns about labor shortages due to immigration raids but promised legal migration as a replacement.
· He reiterated his pledge to block the sale of US Steel Corp. to Nippon Steel Corp., citing national security interests.
Election and international relations
· Trump sidestepped questions about accepting 2024 election results and defended his actions during the Jan. 6 Capitol incident.
· He declined to comment on alleged communications with Russian President Vladimir Putin since leaving office.
Bottom line: Throughout the interview, Trump maintained a confident stance on his economic vision, despite widespread skepticism from economists and policy experts.
EU prepares retaliatory tariffs if Trump wins and imposes trade measures post-election... The European Union has readied a list of U.S. goods it could target with tariffs if Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. election and enacts punitive trade measures. While the EU prefers to avoid conflict and seek common ground on issues like China, it said it is prepared to respond if necessary. Trump previously surprised the EU with tariffs on steel and aluminum in 2018, prompting retaliatory actions. The EU will prioritize trade relations regardless of the election outcome, but concerns remain over Trump’s proposed tariffs and unresolved trade disputes from Biden’s presidency.