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Crop progress/condition data pushed back to Tuesday afternoon... Due to today’s government holiday for Columbus Day, USDA’s weekly crop progress/condition data will be released Tuesday afternoon.
Russia continues attacks on Ukraine’s export infrastructure... A Russian missile hit a fourth cargo ship in Ukraine this month, as the Kremlin ramps up its attacks on Kyiv’s trade infrastructure. A grain storage facility at Odesa port was attacked on Monday, killing one person and injuring two others. A ship called NS Moon was also hit, while the bulk carrier Optima was struck for a second time. The NS Moon was delivering metal products, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Despite the attacks, the Ukrainian navy said ports in greater Odesa continued to operate as normal.
Argentina’s crops boosted by rains, more expected by month-end... Weekend showers brought relief to the parched wheat and corn crops in norther areas of Argentina’s agricultural heartland, the Rosario Grain Exchange said. “The rains this long weekend put a stop to the fall in wheat yields and (allow farmers to) continue with corn planting,” the exchange said, adding that Santa Fe’s growing regions received between 30 millimeters and 90 mm (1.2 and 3.5 inches) of rainfall.
The exchange expects more near-term rains. “We hope that by the end of October we hit 100 mm, to begin accumulating water for the summer,” said Cristian Russo, the exchanges head of agricultural estimates.
Changes to USDA’s meat S&D tables... USDA raised its 2024 and 2025 beef production forecasts in last Friday’s Supply & Demand Report. Beef production is now forecast to increase marginally from year-ago and rise another 4.1% next year. USDA reduced beef exports for this year based on recent trade data. Beef exports are now expected to fall 2.7% from last year. The beef export forecast for next year was unchanged but is projected to fall another 12.0%. Despite these changes, USDA raised its cash steer prices for both this year and next to $186.18 and $187.00, respectively.
USDA lowered pork production for this year, with output now expected to fall 2.4%. The pork production projection for next year was raised and is expected to climb 2.0%. USDA lowered its pork export forecast for this year, though shipments are still expected to climb 4.8%. For next year, USDA raised the export outlook to reflect a 3.0% annual increase. USDA raised its average cash hog price to $59.80 for this year and kept it at $58.00 for next year.
Comparing Trump and Harris China policies... According to Epoch Times writers Terri Wu and Lily Zhou, following is where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump stand on key issues with China.
Trade and economic policy. Both Trump and Harris agree on the need to control strategic goods and technologies, invest in innovation, re-shore supply chains and combat Beijing’s unfair trade practices.
Trump:
· Threatens to impose 60%+ tariffs on Chinese goods
· Advocates for revoking China’s permanent normal trade relations status
· Supports phasing out imports of essential goods from China
· Aims to stop Chinese purchases of American real estate and industries
Harris:
· Supports “derisking” rather than full economic decoupling
· Pledges to take “swift and strong measures” against China’s unfair practices
· Continues many of Biden’s current policies
Security and military strategy. Both candidates view China as a significant threat but differ in their approaches to deterrence and regional priorities.
Trump:
· Emphasizes military strength as a deterrent
· Supports modernizing nuclear weapons
· Prioritizes the Indo-Pacific region over Europe
Harris:
· Maintains current defense spending levels
· Supports U.S. global leadership role, including in Ukraine
· Emphasizes alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific
Fentanyl crisis. Both recognize the severity of the fentanyl problem linked to China.
Trump:
· Proposes asking Chinese leader Xi Jinping to impose death penalties on fentanyl dealers
Harris:
· Pledges to make disrupting fentanyl flow a top priority
· Supports ongoing counternarcotics cooperation with China
Engagement with China:
Trump:
· More confrontational approach
· Skeptical of high-level dialogues without clear objectives
Harris:
· Supports “responsibly managing competition” through open communication
· Advocates for a “tough but smart” approach
Human rights. Both have supported legislation addressing human rights abuses in China.
Trump:
· Declared China’s treatment of Uyghurs as genocide
· Met with survivors of religious persecution, including Falun Gong practitioners
Harris:
· Co-sponsored human rights legislation on Hong Kong and Xinjiang
· Vocal critic of China’s human rights record
Fitch: Trump presidency could impact Asian economies... A second Donald Trump presidency could lead to significantly lower economic growth in several Asian economies, with China, South Korea and Vietnam particularly affected, ratings agency Fitch said. Trump has floated plans for blanket tariffs of 10% to 20% on virtually all imports as well as tariffs of 60% or more on goods from China.
Under its worst-case scenario, real GDP in those three countries in 2028 could be 1% or more below Fitch’s current expectations, if U.S. trade protectionism increases sharply.
Intensified trade tensions may have significant effects for countries and companies that export goods to the U.S., said Fitch. Fitch said India would be relatively unaffected, as it is less export-orientated.