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Emergency aid sought for Hurricane Helene... Hurricane Helene hit the U.S. Southeast just as crops were ready for harvest, causing significant damage to field crops from Florida to North Carolina and Tennessee, along with livestock/poultry farms and meat processing plants. Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) called for emergency assistance for affected farmers and ranchers, while President Joe Biden indicated he may request a disaster-relief package. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp reported widespread damage to poultry facilities and dairy farms, and Florida Ag Commissioner Wilton Simpson described catastrophic losses in the “big bend” region. Federal workers are deployed to support recovery and USDA said it is ready to provide disaster aid and technical assistance.
AccuWeather now estimates total damage and economic loss could reach up to $160 billion. This significant increase from earlier forecasts positions the storm to rank among the top five costliest in U.S. history. The updated estimate reflects the growing awareness of the devastation caused in the Southeast, increasing odds for ag disaster/financial aid legislation when Congress returns.
Drought forces Russia’s Voronezh region to declare farming emergency... Russia’s fifth-largest grain producing region, Voronezh, has declared a state of emergency due to drought. Voronezh borders Ukraine. Voronezh produced over 6 MMT of grain in 2023, 4% of the nationwide total. This year, the region expects to produce 4.5 MMT to 5 MMT of grain.
Soybean crush falls sharply, about as expected... U.S. processors crushed 167.5 million bu. of soybeans in August, which was basically in line with analysts’ pre-report expectations. The crush pace dropped 25.9 million bu. (13.4%) from July and was 1.5 million bu. (0.9%) under year-ago. Soybean crush totaled 2.287 billion bu. during 2023-24, up 3.4% from last year but 8 million bu. less than USDA’s September estimate.
Corn-for-ethanol use stronger than expected... Corn-for-ethanol use totaled 472.7 million bu. during August, which was 3.7 million bu. more than the average pre-report estimate. Ethanol use dropped 11.2 million bu. (2.3%) from the sharply revised July figure but was 31.0 million bu. (7.0%) above last year. Corn ethanol use totaled 5.471 billion bu. in 2023-24, up 295 million bu. (5.7%) from last year and 6 million bu. more than USDA’s September estimate.
Farmer sentiment falls to lowest levels since 2016... Declining income expectations helped to push farmer sentiment down again in September as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index fell 12 points (12%) to 88. Both of the barometer’s sub-indices, the Index of Current Conditions and the Index of Future Expectations, declined as well. The Current Conditions Index fell 7 points (8.4%) to 76, and the Future Expectations Index dropped 14 points (13%) to 94. These were the weakest barometer and future expectations readings since March 2016, when the farm economy was in the throes of an economic downturn. The current conditions assessment nearly matched that of April 2020, when COVID concerns were top of mind for U.S. farmers.
The barometer noted, “Producers expect markedly worse financial performance for their farms in the upcoming year compared to their expectations at this time last year. Weak farm income expectations combined with lingering interest rate concerns and a pessimistic agricultural export outlook helped push the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index below 100 for the first time since 2020.”
U.S. expands ag market access... The U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office and USDA on Monday detailed strides made in expanding market access and boosting agricultural exports for U.S. producers.
Export growth
· The four-year average of U.S. agricultural exports is 28.5% higher compared to the previous four years.
Market access achievements
· The administration has secured over $26.7 billion in agricultural market access globally for U.S. farmers, ranchers, fishers, and food manufacturers since taking office. This expanded access has opened up new opportunities for American agricultural producers in international markets.
Record-breaking export values
· Between 2021 and 2024, the U.S. achieved its four largest annual export values for agricultural products. The peak was reached in 2022 with a record of $196 billion in agricultural exports.
Key initiatives. The administration has launched several programs to promote U.S. agricultural exports:
· Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP): A $1.2 billion initiative aimed at opening new markets and strengthening existing ones for U.S. agricultural and food producers and exporters.
· Assisting Specialty Crop Exports (ASCE) initiative: Funded with $65 million from RAPP, this program supports projects that advance U.S. specialty crop exports by improving understanding of foreign food safety systems and promoting U.S. food safety standards abroad.
Trade relationship improvements. The administration has worked on strengthening trade relationships and removing barriers:
· Lowered tariffs in India for 10 agricultural commodities, including apples, frozen duck and frozen chicken.
· Secured approvals and renewals for agricultural biotechnology products in the European Union.
· Reopened the Colombian market for U.S. poultry and egg products.
· Gained access for U.S. fresh potatoes to Mexico beyond the border zone, resulting in over $82 million in exports in 2022.
Upshot: Some of the increase in export value may be attributed to higher prices rather than solely increased volumes. This joint release tries to address bipartisan complaints in Congress and in the U.S. ag sector about the current trade policy and shows the sensitivity of the issue within the Biden administration.
Argentina’s grain export revenue jumps 21% in September... Argentina’s grain exporters brought in $2.48 billion in September, up 1.2% from August and a 21% increase compared to the previous year, the CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed producers and grains exporters said. In the first nine months of this year, grain export revenue increased 11% from the same period last year, the chamber added.
CIARA-CEC noted that despite higher revenues, grain exports and the soy processing industry continue to face high levels of idle capacity, suffering from “permanent negative margins.”
New president takes office in Mexico... Claudia Sheinbaum has become Mexico’s first female president, inheriting a country divided by her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s judicial overhaul, which forces federal judges to face elections. While Sheinbaum supports the reform, critics say it undermines democracy and could harm trade with the U.S., as well as foreign investment. She faces challenges from organized crime, economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, especially with the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency.
Sheinbaum and incoming Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard plan to name Luis Rosendo Gutierrez Romano as deputy secretary for international trade, Bloomberg reports. In that role, Gutierrez Romano is poised to lead an area responsible for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the four-year-old pact that’s up for evaluation and potential changes in 2026.