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Fed cuts rates as expected... The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The post-meeting statement said economic activity continued to expand at a “solid pace,” while noting the jobs market has “generally eased” and inflation has “made progress” toward the 2% target. Risks to the jobs market and inflation were “roughly in balance,” the Fed said.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave no indication of future monetary policy moves. He said uncertainty over the outlook limits what the central bank can say at this time. “We don’t think it’s a good time to be doing a lot of forward guidance... In the near term the election will have no effects on our policy decisions. We don’t guess, speculate and we don’t assume” on future government policies.
Winter wheat drought footprint shrinks in scope and intensity... As of Nov. 5, the Drought Monitor showed 88% of the U.S. was covered by abnormal dryness/drought, up one percentage point from the previous week. USDA estimated 57% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was experiencing drought conditions, down five points from last week. More rains across areas of the Plains and Midwest this week should further reduce the drought area, but they won’t remove broad soil moisture deficiencies.
In HRW areas, dryness/drought covered 98% of Kansas (no D3 or D4), 58% of Colorado (3% D3, no D4), 92% of Oklahoma (no D3 or D4), 90% of Texas (12% D3 or D4), 100% of Nebraska (8% D3, no D4), 100% of South Dakota (10% D3, no D4) and 100% of Montana (14% D3 or D4).
In SRW areas, dryness/drought covered 70% of Missouri (no D3 or D4), 98% of Illinois (no D3 or D4), 100% of Indiana (no D3 or D4), 89% of Ohio (20% D3 or D4), 99% of Michigan (virtually no D3, no D4), 99% of Kentucky (no D3 or D4) and 91% of Tennessee (4% D3, no D4).
The Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for broad removal or improvement in drought conditions over most SRW areas, along with eastern Kansas, most of Oklahoma and western Montana through January. Drought conditions are expected to develop or persist across Texas, northwestern Kansas, most of Nebraska, Colorado, eastern Montana and the Southeast.
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Early initial look at 2025-26 marketing year... USDA’s 10-year baseline projections are based on data as of October and assume no policy changes. USDA’s initial assumptions for 2025-26:
· Corn: Plantings of 92.0 million acres, with production of 15.305 billion bu. and ending stocks of 2.269 billion bushels. The average cash price: $3.90.
· Soybeans: Plantings of 85.0 million acres, with production of 4.42 billion bu. and ending stocks of 515 million bushels. The average cash price: $10.00.
· Wheat: Plantings of 46.0 million acres, with production of 1.884 billion bu. and ending stocks of 828 million bushels. The average cash price: $5.80.
· Cotton: Upland plantings of 10.8 million acres, with production of 15.3 million bales and ending stocks of 4.38 million bales. The average cash price: 66¢.
Perspective: These are baseline projections. A lot can and will change from now until the end of the 2025-26 marketing year on Aug. 31, 2026. But this gives you a good indication of USDA’s initial outlook for the following marketing year to help make some initial decisions for your farming operation.
Who will be the new USDA Secretary?... The parlor game of trying to determine who will become Donald Trump’s Secretary of Agriculture has begun with a host of possibilities, which include:
· Abel Maldonado, said to be at or near the top of possibilities, was former California Lt. Gov. from April 27, 2010, to Jan. 10, 2011. He is the oldest son of immigrant field workers and grew up working alongside his father picking strawberries to help support the family. He ran unsuccessfully for California’s 24th congressional district in 2012 and briefly ran for governor in the 2014 election. He was considered for USDA Secretary by Trump in 2017, but was not ultimately nominated. He is currently owner of Runway Vineyards in Santa Maria, California.
· Zippy Duval, American Farm Bureau President.
· Kip Tom, farmer who transformed his family’s farm, Tom Farms, into one of the largest farming operations in Indiana. From April 2019 to January 2021, he served as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture, based in Rome, Italy.
· Former House Ag Chairman Mike Conaway, now a private consultant.
· Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller.
· Rep Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). He is a rebel House conservative that most consider a long shot choice.
· Ted McKinney, CEO of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture. Before that he was Undersecretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs (2017-2021); Director of the Indiana State Department of Agriculture (2014-2017): He served in this capacity before his appointment to the federal government. McKinney worked for 19 years with Dow AgroSciences and 14 years with Elanco, a subsidiary of Eli Lilly and Company, where he was Director of Global Corporate Affairs.
· Ray Starling. A prominent figure in American agriculture policy and law with extensive experience in both the public and private sectors. Currently serves as the general counsel of the N.C. Chamber and president of the N.C. Chamber Legal Institute. In these roles, he sets litigation strategy and leads public policy development, focusing on issues affecting businesses in North Carolina. Previously, Starling held several high-profile positions in the federal government: Chief of Staff to U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue; Principal agriculture advisor to the President of the United States at the White House; Special Assistant to the President for Agriculture, Trade and Food Assistance on the White House National Economic Council. He also worked as: Chief of Staff and Chief Counsel for U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis. He grew up on a Century Family Farm in southeastern North Carolina.
Potential candidates for U.S. Trade Representative in Trump administration:
· Robert Lighthizer is seen as a top contender to reprise his role as U.S. Trade Representative. However, reports signal Lighthizer wants to be either Commerce Secretary or Treasury Secretary. As Trump’s USTR during his first term, Lighthizer was a key figure in implementing the administration’s trade policies, including: Leading negotiations for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to replace NAFTA; Overseeing trade negotiations and disputes with China; Advocating for and implementing tariffs on various imports. Lighthizer remains close with Trump and is widely viewed as a leading candidate for USTR or another top economic post, especially given Trump’s promises to pursue even more aggressive trade policies in a second term.
· Bill Hagerty. The Tennessee senator and former ambassador to Japan under Trump is considered a contender for multiple Cabinet posts, including USTR.
· Jamieson Greer. Served as chief of staff to Lighthizer at USTR during Trump’s first term and is reportedly a top choice to lead the office.
· Robert O’Brien. Trump’s former national security advisor is seen as a candidate for Secretary of State or other foreign policy roles, which could potentially include USTR.
Of note: Trump has expressed a desire to pursue even more aggressive trade policies, including broader tariffs, in a potential second term. This suggests he may favor someone like Lighthizer who has a track record of implementing such policies. However, the final selection will likely depend on various factors as Trump assembles his full economic and foreign policy teams.
U.S. recommends expanded H5N1 testing... Farm workers who have been exposed to animals with H5N1 should be tested for the virus even if they do not have symptoms, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. The change to the agency’s testing recommendation comes after USDA announced last week it was expanding its testing of milk for H5N1, signaling concern by both agencies about the ongoing spread of the virus on dairy and poultry farms.
CDC is not seeing mutations in the virus that would lead to easier transmission or evidence of person-to-person spread, agency officials said.