Evening Report | November 26, 2024

Evening Report

Evening Report
Evening Report | November 26, 2024
(Pro Farmer)

Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.

Mexico hints at retaliation after Trump’s tariff threat…Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum cautioned against steep tariffs proposed by President-elect Donald Trump, hinting at reciprocal measures that could strain economic ties. Sheinbaum, addressing reporters, criticized the 25% tariffs Trump threatened on all Mexican and Canadian goods, emphasizing the potential risks to key industries like auto manufacturing. Calling for dialogue on migration and drug issues, she urged cooperation to avoid jeopardizing $800 billion in annual bilateral trade. Following the announcement, the Mexican peso fell, reflecting market concerns over escalating trade tensions.

Full-blown La Niña event still unlikely... The latest data from the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to show very little reason to expect a full blown La Niña in the next few months, according to World Weather Inc. Neutral ENSO conditions are more likely to prevail in the next few months with a slight La Nina bias, but that will not allow “traditional” La Niña weather anomalies to evolve – at least not in all areas of the world.

World Weather notes, “Interestingly, the cold advertised for the north-central U.S. and upper Midwest this week fits very well with neutral ENSO years whereas La Niña years favor the cold in western Canada, the U.S. Pacific Northwest and the northern U.S. Plains.”

California farmers and Trump: A collision course over immigration... California farmers, many of whom are ardent Trump supporters, face potential disruption from President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. With half of California’s 162,000 farmworkers estimated to be undocumented, such actions could devastate the state’s agricultural sector, leading to labor shortages, unharvested crops and soaring food prices, the Los Angeles Times reports. Farmers hope for measures like worker legalization or expanded access to H-2A guest-worker visas. However, farmworker advocates warn that guest-worker programs risk exploitation, while undocumented workers express fear and uncertainty.

As policies take shape, echoes of historical deportation campaigns, such as “Operation Wetback” in the 1950s, amplify concerns about the future of labor in California’s fields. Farmers stress that a stable workforce is essential to ensure the nation’s food security.

Newsom pledges California EV rebates if Trump cuts federal tax credit... California Governor Gavin Newsom has vowed to reinstate electric vehicle (EV) rebates if President-elect Donald Trump eliminates the $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Newsom, a Democrat and potential 2028 presidential candidate, announced plans to fund the rebates by charging refineries and other what he calls polluting facilities, emphasizing California’s leadership in clean energy and climate action.

Newsom’s pledge signals the start of a likely contentious battle with the Trump administration over environmental policies, including California’s ban on new gas-powered car sales by 2035. Trump plans to revoke California’s authority to set independent air-pollution standards, a power restored under President Joe Biden. California, the largest car market in the U.S., has long set stricter emission standards than federal levels, influencing national and automaker policies.

USITC schedules final phase of investigation into 2,4-D imports from India and China... The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) set a timeline for the final phase of its antidumping and countervailing duty investigation into 2,4-D imports from India and China. This follows the Department of Commerce’s preliminary determination that these imports were subsidized and sold in the U.S. at below fair value, potentially harming domestic industry.

Key dates in the investigation include:

  • April 1, 2025: USITC hearing.
  • April 8, 2025: Deadline for post-hearing briefs.
  • April 23, 2025: Release of all information to parties.
  • April 25, 2025: Final comments deadline.
  • March 27, 2025: Department of Commerce’s final determination.
  • May 12, 2025: USITC’s final determination.

The investigation was initiated on March 14, 2024, at the request of Corteva Agriscience. USITC is assessing whether these imports materially harm or threaten the U.S. industry or impede its establishment.

Another CN Rail strike authorization... Unifor said on Monday its members at Canadian National Railway have authorized a strike action at the railroad if the parties fail to reach an agreement by Jan. 1. Unifor, which represents CN Rail’s car technicians and heavy duty mechanics among other workers, said negotiations with the railroad will resume from Nov. 30 to Dec. 8 in Montreal.

The union had initiated negotiations with CN Rail in September, with bargaining priorities that included higher wages, addressing concerns about the pension plan and job security for its members.

Sesame can be alternative to safrinha corn in central Brazil... In recent years, farmers in central Brazil have been looking for alternatives for safrinha corn, especially if the corn planting is delayed past the ideal planting window. One alternative that is becoming more popular is the production of sesame, according to South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier.

Sesame acreage in Brazil increased 83% from 361,000 hectares in 2023 to 660,000 hectares in 2024. Sesame production increased from 174,000 MT in 2023 to 361,000 MT in 2024.

Cordonnier says one of the advantages of sesame is that it is more tolerant to dry conditions than corn, which is important in central Brazil for a second crop following soybeans. Cost of production for sesame is also lower than for corn, though the market liquidity is less than for corn due to fewer participants in the marketplace. Currently, the principal export destinations for Brazil’s sesame is India and Vietnam, but Brazil and Beijing just signed a trade agreement to start exporting sesame to China, who is the world’s largest importer.