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Mexico disrupting U.S. dry edible beans, other commodities at the border... A contact confirms there is an embargo or stoppage of U.S. dry edible beans at Mexico border crossings. There are two border crossings available for edible beans entering Mexico and both are experiencing problems. Other bulk U.S. commodities are affected too. We were told by one source Mexico has guaranteed its producers a price for their beans that is higher than the U.S. price and that that is likely the reason U.S. exports are being blocked. The combination of border crossing issues, Mexican agricultural policies and price guarantees is creating significant challenges for U.S. dry bean exports to Mexico.
President Claudia Sheinbaum aims to boost bean production by approximately 30% over the next six years. The emphasis on domestic agriculture reflects a broader trend in Mexican policy that could challenge existing trade agreements and alter the dynamics of agricultural exports between the two countries.
Winter wheat drought footprint keeps shrinking... As of Nov. 19, the Drought Monitor showed 78% of the U.S. was covered by abnormal dryness/drought, down five percentage points from the previous week. USDA estimated 40% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was experiencing D1-D4 drought conditions, down 3 points from last week and one point less than last year at this time. USDA’s estimate doesn’t include D0 (abnormally dry) conditions.
In HRW areas, dryness/drought covered 70% of Kansas (no D3 or D4), 42% of Colorado (1% D3, no D4), 53% of Oklahoma (no D3 or D4), 73% of Texas (13% D3 or D4), 94% of Nebraska (8% D3, no D4), 100% of South Dakota (10% D3, no D4) and 100% of Montana (19% D3 or D4).
In SRW areas, dryness/drought covered 52% of Missouri (no D3 or D4), 68% of Illinois (no D3 or D4), 55% of Indiana (no D3 or D4), 79% of Ohio (10% D3 or D4), 99% of Michigan (no D3 or D4), 24% of Kentucky (no D3 or D4) and 66% of Tennessee (4% D3, no D4).
The Seasonal Drought Outlook signals drought conditions are likely to be removed across most of the SRW production areas through February. Drought is likely to persist across the driest areas of the Southern and Central Plains.
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IGC lowers global wheat production forecast... The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its 2024-25 world wheat production forecast by 2 MMT to 796 MMT, though that would still be 1 MMT higher than last year, driven mostly by a smaller EU crop.
IGC raised its global corn production forecast by 1 MMT to 1.225 billion MT, though that would be down 6 MMT from last year.
IGC cut its global soybean production outlook by 2 MMT to 419 MMT, largely reflecting a smaller U.S. crop, but still up 23 MMT from 2023-24.
UK wheat plantings expected to rise... United Kingdom wheat plantings are expected to rise 5% to 1.613 million hectares, according to farmer and agribusiness group Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHBD), though that would still be below the five-year average of 1.705 million hectares. AHBD said, “Depending on yields, only a partial recovery for 2025 could mean UK production remains below average.”
Rapeseed plantings are expected to plunge 17% to a 42-year low of 239,000 hectares, and AHBD final planted area “could be even lower,” depending on pest damage and weather.
U.S. farmers face financial crisis amid plummeting income and high costs... Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) and Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) have raised alarms over the financial struggles facing American farmers, warning that one in five could be pushed out of business due to declining farm income, high production costs, and soaring interest rates.
Despite USDA’s forecast of $116 billion in net farm income for 2024 — still 15% above the 10-year average — lawmakers argue it doesn’t reflect the dire circumstances of many individual producers, especially row crop producers.
Calls for federal aid are intensifying, with proposals like a $21 billion House bill targeting crop growers as a stopgap ahead of the delayed new farm bill.
Ag bankers report mounting financial pressure, with a 40% surge in new operating loans and signs of growing debt distress in the Central Plains and Midwest. As forced farm liquidations loom, the fate of rural America hangs on swift and significant government intervention.
Thompson, Johnson discuss disaster aid, economic assistance challenges... House Agriculture Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) told Bloomberg Government he met with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) Wednesday afternoon to discuss the path forward for disaster aid and possible economic assistance, though spending parameters for both remain up in the air. Senate Ag ranking member John Boozman (R-Ark.) agreed “there’s a lot of discussion about” both disaster and economic assistance for farmers, but said the biggest barrier to getting something done is time.
Thompson said he briefed his Republican panel colleagues about the Johnson meeting, which also addressed the farm bill. “We reassured him we’d be prepared for a one-year (2018 Farm Bill) extension,” Thompson said.
GOP’s to-do list: Key spending and policy moves to watch... Congressional Republicans face a packed fiscal agenda, with deadlines and high-stakes decisions extending well into 2025. From disaster relief to debt ceiling negotiations, these are the top priorities shaping the budgetary landscape:
1. Stopgap spending into March. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) suggests extending current funding into March, allowing the GOP to shape fiscal 2025 funding under the next administration. This strategy aligns with Johnson’s bid for re-election as Speaker in January.
Appropriators’ pushback: Key lawmakers prefer resolving spending now to avoid burdening President-elect Donald Trump with early funding battles. But those same appropriators could not get their job done when they had plenty of time to do so.
2. Disaster relief with bipartisan support. Congress is expected to approve billions in aid after Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Conservatives may push for offsets, though lawmakers like Sen. Tillis (R-N.C.) oppose such measures.
White House request: Total request of almost $100 billion, including $40 billion for FEMA and $24 billion for agriculture ($21 billion in direct disaster payments and $3 billion for other needs).
Farm-state lawmakers as usual will want to put their own stamp on ag disaster aid, including how much, and this time they will likely write specific language regarding how USDA should implement disaster aid after watching USDA falter on that score the past year.
3. Debt ceiling challenges: suspension lifting in January. While Treasury’s extraordinary measures could delay default until mid-2025, Republicans remain undecided on whether to address the debt limit independently or bundle it with broader legislation.
4. Tax cuts and immigration reform: likely part of reconciliation strategy. Republicans plan to extend Trump-era tax cuts and address border policy via budget reconciliation, circumventing Senate filibusters. Funding for a U.S./Mexico border wall is also on the table.
Immigration moves: Trump’s anticipated executive orders on immigration will likely be bolstered by GOP-backed spending initiatives.
One ag topic not on the likely list: a new farm bill. Instead, a one-year 2018 Farm Bill extension is very likely. Most blame Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) for the lack of a new farm bill even though farm-state leaders had two years to do so.
A stealth farm bill is being pushed by some farm-state lawmakers whereby language would be included in a must-pass bill that would increase reference prices and some crop insurance reimbursements. But with at least $24 billion coming in ag disaster-related funding, some conservative lawmakers may present some hurdles to the stealth farm bill plan.
DOE report charts path for SAF expansion... The Department of Energy (DOE) released its SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap Implementation Framework, outlining strategies to produce 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030 and 35 billion gallons by 2050 to meet domestic jet fuel demand. Key points include:
· Agricultural impact: Significant expansion of oilseed production and adoption of cover crops are essential. Cover crops, deployed on potentially “hundreds of millions of acres,” are currently adopted on less than 10% of farmland nationally. The report calls for region-specific business models and policies to incentivize farmers economically and sustainably.
· Ethanol industry challenges: Meeting SAF carbon intensity (CI) targets requires advancements, including climate-smart agriculture, low-CI sugar feedstocks from residues and expanded carbon pipeline infrastructure. Federal programs addressing CI reductions remain limited.
· Research needs: Determining sustainable residue removal levels and boosting corn and soybean productivity are critical for SAF feedstock expansion.
While the report highlights opportunities, it emphasizes the need for financial incentives to drive farmer participation and CI improvements, particularly for corn and soybeans.