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Trump expected to select RFK Jr. to lead HHS... President-elect Trump is expected to select Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Politico reported, citing a person with direct knowledge of the matter. HHS oversees the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health and the Medicare and Medicaid Services programs.
RFK Jr. aims to eliminate processed food from school lunches and restrict food dyes, signaling a significant shift in Trump’s food regulation plans. While some praise his efforts to promote healthier food, his controversial background as a vaccine critic raises concerns among public health officials.
Kennedy could influence upcoming dietary guidelines, but industry and nutrition experts are wary of his push to “clean house” at FDA and alter regulations affecting ultra-processed foods. His agenda faces challenges.
Winter wheat drought footprint significantly shrinks but still prevalent... As of Nov. 12, the Drought Monitor showed 83% of the U.S. was covered by abnormal dryness/drought, down five percentage points from the previous week. USDA estimated 43% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was experiencing drought conditions, down 14 points from last week and one point less than last year at this time.
The Drought Monitor noted, “Storm systems brought significant precipitation and drought relief to broad areas in the central Rockies, central and southern Plains, Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, Lower and Middle Ohio Valley, and the South Atlantic Region. Meanwhile, subnormal precipitation and some unseasonable warmth led to deterioration in dryness and drought conditions in portions of the Southwest, southern and western Texas, the interior Southeast, the northeastern Gulf Coast, the central and southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic region and Northeast.”
In HRW areas, dryness/drought covered 73% of Kansas (no D3 or D4), 42% of Colorado (1% D3, no D4), 82% of Oklahoma (no D3 or D4), 85% of Texas (13% D3 or D4), 94% of Nebraska (9% D3, no D4), 100% of South Dakota (11% D3, no D4) and 100% of Montana (14% D3 or D4).
In SRW areas, dryness/drought covered 62% of Missouri (no D3 or D4), 84% of Illinois (no D3 or D4), 77% of Indiana (no D3 or D4), 84% of Ohio (14% D3 or D4), 99% of Michigan (no D3 or D4), 47% of Kentucky (no D3 or D4) and 70% of Tennessee (4% D3, no D4).
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Russia’s grain export quota to shrink... Russia’s grain export quota, likely to be in place from February to June, could be much smaller than the second half of 2023-24, due to the high pace of exports through the first four-plus months of the current marketing year and lower-than-expected production.
IKAR consultancy anticipates export quotas in the second half of 2024-25 will be 11.5 MMT to 12.0 MMT. Estimates from SovEcon and Rusagrotrans are even lower at between 9 MMT and 10 MMT.
Argentina makes rapid soybean planting progress after rains, exchange raises crop outlook... Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said soybean planting had progressed rapidly over the past week, following abundant rainfall across key production regions. Farmers have planted 20.1% of an expected 18.6 million hectares this season, the exchange said, marking a 12.2-percentage-point increase over the past week. The exchange said farmers had planted 38.6% of an expected 6.3 million hectares of corn and 17.2% of an expected 18.6 million hectares of wheat.
Separately, the Rosario Grain Exchange edged up its forecast for the country’s soy crop to a range of 53 MMT to 53.5 MMT from 52 MMT to 53 MMT previously.
Mexico’s new president to present constitutional safeguard for non-GMO corn... Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government would in the coming days present a plan to protect the country’s non-genetically modified white corn under the constitution. Mexico is self-sufficient in white corn, used to make tortillas, but imports GMO yellow corn from the U.S. for livestock feed.
U.S. producer prices rise in October... U.S. producer prices increased 2.4% from year-ago in October, up from a 1.9% rise the previous month. Core producer prices, minus food and energy costs, increased 3.1%, up from 2.9% in September. An even narrower scope also excluding trade showed factory-gate prices rose 3.5% annually last month, up from 3.3% in September.
Powell: No need to hurry rate cuts with economy strong... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the recent performance of the US economy has been “remarkably good,” giving central bankers room to lower interest rates at a cautious pace. In remarks that align with a developing expectation for fewer rate cuts next year than previously forecast by Fed officials, Powell affirmed he and his fellow policymakers still consider inflation to be “on a sustainable path to 2%” that will allow the U.S. central bank to move monetary policy “over time to a more neutral setting.”
Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, but the combination of President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory and sticky inflation readings has them anticipating fewer cuts next year.
Rising dollar could challenge Trump’s economic agenda... The U.S. dollar continues to climb, reaching a one-year high amid a post-election rally driven by market bets on “Trumponomics” — a mix of tariffs, tax cuts and immigration crackdowns. This surge could complicate global trade, U.S. competitiveness and Trump’s economic plans, while impacting Fed policy. Analysts warn the strong dollar may force Trump to scale back key policies. The rising dollar poses a challenge for U.S. businesses with overseas operations, reducing profits and creating uncertainty in global markets.
Commerce finds 2-4D herbicide dumping from China, India; final decision delayed... The Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration (ITA) issued a preliminary determination that 2-4D herbicide imports from China and India were sold in the U.S. at below fair value during 2023. Dumping margins for India ranged from 3.91% to 13.23%, while China saw rates from 17.07% to a China-wide rate of 127.21%. Final determinations are delayed up to 135 days, affecting the timeline for the International Trade Commission’s ruling on potential injury to U.S. industry. Concerns have been raised over the potential duties’ impact on farm producers reliant on 2-4D.
IEA predicts global oil surplus amid weak Chinese demand... The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global oil surplus of over 1 million barrels per day next year, driven by a sustained decline in Chinese demand, which contracted for six consecutive months through September. Despite Middle Eastern tensions, crude prices have softened due to growing output from the Americas. IEA projects global demand growth will slow to under 1 million barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, as clean energy transitions accelerate. Supply growth from the U.S., Brazil, Canada and Guyana will further contribute to the anticipated glut. OPEC+ plans to gradually revive production remain uncertain.