Evening Report | July 22, 2024

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Corn conditions decline... USDA rated 67% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, down one percentage point from the previous week. Analysts expected no change. The “poor” to “very poor” rating increased one point to 10%.

USDA reported 61% of the crop was silking (56% five-year average) and 17% was in dough stage (11%).

Soybean conditions unchanged... USDA rated the soybean crop as 68% “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week, as expected. The “poor” to “very poor” rating also held at 8%.

USDA reported 65% of the crop was blooming (60% average) and 29% was setting pods (24%).

Cotton conditions post sharp improvement, fueled by Texas... USDA rated 53% of the cotton crop as “good” to “excellent,” up eight points from last week. The “poor” to “very poor” rating improved five points to 18%. The Texas crop was rated 46% in the top two categories and 25% in the bottom two, up 12 points and down seven points, respectively, from last week.

USDA reported 81% of the crop was squaring (76% average) and 42% was setting bolls (34%).

Spring wheat conditions steady... USDA rated 77% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week, though there was a two-point increase in the top category. Analysts expected a one-point decline in the good/excellent rating. The “poor” to “very poor” rating increased two points to 5%.

USDA reported 89% of the crop was headed (90% average).

Winter wheat harvest passes three-quarter mark... USDA reported winter wheat harvest reached 76%, four points ahead of average. Analysts expected harvest to be 81% complete. Harvest was finished in Texas and Oklahoma, while Kansas stood at 99%.

China’s H1 soybean imports from Brazil record-large, U.S. shipments lag... China imported 9.7 MMT of soybeans from Brazil during June, up 2.2% from last year and the highest monthly volume since May 2023’s record of 10.93 MMT. China imported 1.31 MMT of soybeans from the U.S. last month, up 25.1% from year-ago.

Through the first half of the year, China brought in 34.43 MMT of Brazilian soybeans, up 16.1% from last year and a record for the period. Imports from the U.S. totaled 12.2 MMT, down 27% from the same period last year.

Russian wheat exports start 2024-25 slower than last year... Black Sea consulting firm SovEcon estimates Russia will export 3.5 MMT of grain in July, including 2.9 MMT of wheat. That would be lower totals than any month during the 2023-24 marketing year and down significantly from 5.6 MMT of grain and a record 4.4 MMT of wheat shipped during July 2023.

Ukrainian grain exports via Romania’s Constanta port plunge... Ukraine exported 4.24 MMT of grain through the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta during the first half of this year, down 43.5% from the same period last year. Constanta port had been Ukraine’s main alternative route for grain. But a shipping corridor Ukraine created in August 2023 from Odesa means Kyiv relies less on Constanta.

Canada updates old-, new-crop balance sheets... Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) updated its 2023-24 and 2024-25 balance sheets based on information available as of July 15.

For 2023-24, the outlook remains largely unchanged as the crop year for most crops closes at the end of July. Total supply for all principal field crops declined notably due to a significant decrease in western Canadian production as a result of drought in large portions of the Prairies. The reduction in supply combined with an increase in domestic use more than offset the decline in exports and led to carryout stocks (ending-year inventories) declining year-over-year. Prices for most principal field crops are projected to be significantly lower than last year, although pulses prices are expected to increase.

For 2024-25, the outlook incorporates the most recent data from Statistics Canada’s June 27 acreage data. Total area seeded to principal field crops in Canada in 2024 is estimated to have decreased marginally from 2023, with increased area for pulses and special crops estimated to have offset reduced area seeded to wheat, oilseeds, and coarse grains. In Western Canada, growing conditions continued to improve throughout June, although drought continued in northwestern Alberta as observed in the Canadian Drought Monitor. Overall yield expectations have been increased from the June AAFC outlook, with yields increased for wheat, corn and for pulse and special crops, assuming normal weather conditions and timely rains for the remainder of the growing season. Prices for most principal field crops are forecast to decline year-over-year, in line with lower world values.

According to provincial crop reports, the spring wheat crop is faring well with 90% rated in good to excellent condition in Saskatchewan and 79% in Alberta. As a result, yields are forecast at 3.6 MT per hectare, with production forecast at 29.1 MMT and total supplies at 31.6 MMT.