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La Niña unlikely to influence Northern Hemisphere summer... The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter (79% chance during November-January). World Weather Inc. says the slow evolution of La Niña leaves the door open for other weather patterns to dominate the atmosphere. The forecaster says, “So far, those ‘other’ patterns do not look too anomalous in major agricultural areas implying a normal production year is at hand.
Perspective on survey response rates for USDA’s NASS reports... We decided to check in on response rates for USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reports after a new study by the American Statistical Association that we highlighted earlier this week warned the reliability of U.S. economic data is at risk due to shrinking budgets, declining survey response rates and potential political interference. This is not the case with NASS reports. Currently, government statistics remain dependable, but the study, authored by statisticians from various institutions including George Mason University and the Urban Institute, likens the statistical system to infrastructure that is often neglected until a crisis occurs.
Bottom line: NASS continues to monitor response rates and implement strategies to improve participation in their surveys, recognizing the critical importance of high-quality agricultural data.
Lance Honig, Director of Methodology Division and Chair, Agricultural Statistics Board of USDA’s NASS told us: “As a Federal statistical agency, NASS has the unique ability to level the playing field by providing unbiased and accurate information to everyone involved in agriculture — free of charge and available to everyone at the same time. The work that we do is a partnership with farmers across the Nation. Every producer who receives a NASS survey has an opportunity to improve the accuracy of the results by completing it, which leads to better decisions, better policy, and increased market efficiency. That’s a win for everyone. Response to surveys has declined in recent years, but overall rates remain very strong at NASS relative to other organizations and entities conducting survey work — a tribute to the time farmers commit to this partnership. While surveys remain the backbone of our estimates, we incorporate additional information into our process, including administrative data from across USDA, geospatial information, and more. This helps to improve accuracy while reducing the volume of survey contacts we have to make, therefore reducing the burden placed on farmers. We continue to explore additional data sources as we look to the future, but remain committed to utilizing the most reliable information available today.”
Click here to view our full special report.
Concerns raised over approval of Chinese biotech firm’s genetically engineered soybeans... Chair John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party has raised significant concerns about USDA’s quick approval of Qi Biodesign, a Chinese ag biotech company, to produce genetically engineered soybeans for consumption in the United States. Moolenaar has requested USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack:
• Immediately revisit the regulatory review.
• Provide a briefing to address specific questions about the approval process, including steps taken to protect U.S. supply chains and ensure reciprocity between nations.
Click here for more details.
Small corn, soybean drought footprint... As of July 9, the Drought Monitor showed 48% of the U.S. was covered by abnormal dryness/drought, up one point from the previous week. USDA estimated drought covered 7% of corn production areas and 8% for soybeans, unchanged and down one point, respectively, from last week.
Across the Corn Belt, dryness/drought covered 8% of North Dakota, 28% of South Dakota, 14% of Nebraska, 47% of Kansas, 1% of Iowa, 5% of Missouri, 46% of Illinois, 65% of Indiana, 67% of Ohio, 6% of Michigan and none of Minnesota or Wisconsin. The majority of those dry areas of the Corn Belt were D0 (abnormally dry), though some D1 (moderate drought) has developed in eastern and far western areas of the region.
Click here to view related maps.
France expects sharp reduction in non-EU wheat exports... French soft wheat exports outside the EU in 2024-25 are projected at 7.5 MMT by the country’s ag ministry, down 2.7 MMT (26.5%) from last year. French wheat exports within the bloc are expected to rise 4% to 6.5 MMT.
Brazil’s corn production forecast raised, soybean crop trimmed... Conab raised its Brazilian corn crop forecast 1.7 million metric tons (MMT) to 115.9 MMT. Despite the increase, the 2023-24 export forecast remained at 33.5 MMT. Conab trimmed its soybean crop estimate 17,000 metric tons to 147.3 MMT and kept its export forecast at 92.4 MMT.
Consumer inflation unexpectedly drops in June... The consumer price index (CPI) slid 0.1% in June after being unchanged in May. On an annual basis, CPI cooled to 3% above year-ago, the lowest reading in a year. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.1% from May and 3.3% over the past year.
Food prices rose 0.2% in June after increasing 0.1% in May, with food at home (grocery) prices up 0.1% and food away from home (restaurant) costs up 0.4%. On an annual basis, food prices increased 2.2%, with grocery prices up 1.1% and restaurants costs up 4.1%.
The inflation data strengthened the backdrop required for the Fed to start cutting interest rates, possibly in September, with the market now factoring in around 85% odds of that happening.
House GOP chairs seek agency reactions to SCOTUS Chevron deference decision... House Republican committee chairs will send letters to agency heads, including USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, seeking their reactions to the Supreme Court’s recent decision in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, which overturned the Chevron doctrine. This ruling, issued on June 28, overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine, which had previously granted deference to federal agencies in interpreting ambiguous statutes when writing regulations. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) emphasized the importance of checking federal agencies’ power and holding them accountable. He noted that the Supreme Court’s ruling restores the constitutional separation of powers, preventing agencies from expanding their authority unchecked.
Specifically, the committee chairs requested:
· Lists of existing regulations that were challenged in court and upheld based on Chevron deference.
· Pending rules that could have been defended using Chevron deference.
· Rules that could have a significant annual effect on the economy, consumer costs, or employment.
This move by House Republicans is seen as an attempt to provide a roadmap for potential legal challenges to agency regulations considering the Supreme Court’s decision.
For USDA, this ruling could impact ongoing efforts to reform the Packers and Stockyards Act. Vilsack had been pushing for tighter enforcement of this 103-year-old act through a series of rules aimed at fairness and market competition. These proposed rules, including changes to poultry grower payment systems and clarifications on “unfair” practices in livestock and poultry markets, may now face greater scrutiny and potential legal challenges.
The letter to Vilsack is signed by House Ag Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, House Education & the Workforce Committee Chairwoman Virginia Foxx and House Oversight and Accountability Chairman Jamie Comer.
Thompson criticizes EPA regulations at House Ag hearing... At a House Agriculture Committee hearing titled “Consequences of EPA’s Actions on American Agriculture,” Chair Thompson criticized the Biden administration for imposing regulations he claims punish farmers and ranchers. Thompson expressed frustration with EPA’s approach and mentioned that EPA Administrator Michael Regan had testified before the committee in April, the first such appearance since 2016. Thompson had invited Regan to testify again, but the administration deemed it unprecedented for him to appear twice in 14 months.
Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), the committee’s ranking member, defended EPA, highlighting efforts to incorporate farmers into its decision-making processes. Witnesses acknowledged EPA’s attempts to engage with the agricultural community but stressed the need for further improvements.
Witnesses included: Jeff Kippley from the National Farmers Union, Chris Chinn from the Missouri Agriculture Department, Gary Cooper from the National Pork Producers Council, and Rebecca Larson from the Western Sugar Cooperative all shared their perspectives. They commended the creation of the EPA’s Office of Agriculture and Rural Affairs but voiced concerns over specific regulations and their impact on agriculture.
Bipartisan farm, food funding bill advances to Senate floor... A $27 billion fiscal year (FY) 2025 food and farm spending bill has received unanimous approval (27-0) from Senate appropriators, moving it to the full chamber for a vote. The bill proposes an $821 million increase in funding for USDA, Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and other agencies compared to FY 2024. The House bill that advanced out of committee Wednesday would provide $25.9 billion. Highlights of the Senate measure:
Increased funding:
• USDA and FDA: Significant budget increases, with FDA getting nearly $6.9 billion.
• SNAP: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps, was funded at $123.2 billion, an increase of $845.3 million from FY 2024. The committee report addresses the skimming of SNAP benefits, a practice that occurs when a device is installed into sales terminals to capture card data and PIN entries. According to the FBI, the skimming of Electronic Benefits Transfer cards has been a “key target” for theft since 2021 because the cards don’t have an embedded chip. EBT cards are used to distribute SNAP benefits and the theft often occurs between the first and tenth of the month. The FY 2023 consolidated appropriations law allowed state agencies to replace stolen SNAP benefits using federal funds, but that authority is set to expire Sept. 30. The report directs USDA to report on the “process toward making skimming victims whole” within 30 days of the bill’s enactment.
• USDA research: $1.87 billion, up by $29 million from the previous year.
• WIC: The Senate bill would increase funding for the Women, Infants and Children (WIC ) program to $7.7 billion, a boost of $667 million from fiscal 2024. The program provides approximately 7 million women and children with cash benefits to buy fruits and vegetables.
• The Food for Peace program also would see a boost in funding for its international aid. The legislation would provide $1.7 billion for the program, a $101 million increase from FY 2024. The bill contrasts with the House bill, which would provide $1 billion in funding, or $619 million less than in FY 2024.
• The McGovern-Dole Food for Education program would see an increase of $10 million from FY 2024, for a total of $250 million, according to the Democratic summary.
• Housing rental assistance: Increased by $83 million to a total of $1.7 billion.
• FDA: The bill would provide $6.9 billion in funding for FDA, which includes $3.5 billion in discretionary funding, a $22 million increase from FY 2024. It also includes an increase of $15 million for food safety at the FDA, a boost that comes as the agency is reorganizing its food oversight division into a unified Human Foods Program.
Senate vs. House appropriations:
• The Senate moved the bill forward quickly with only a manager’s amendment, while the House spent several hours on amendments and debates, proposing a $25.9 billion budget.
Top-line allocations:
• Panel members agreed on top-line allocations for all 12 annual funding bills, though details on emergency funds were not fully disclosed.
Democrats remove SNAP food restriction pilot from USDA/FDA funding bill... On Wednesday, the House Appropriations Committee saw minority-party Democrats successfully remove a pilot project from the annual USDA/FDA funding bill that aimed to restrict SNAP recipients from purchasing “unhealthy foods.” The pilot project, proposed by Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) was criticized by Democrats as being both paternalistic and impractical.
The pilot project, known as the SNAP Choice pilot program, intended to block SNAP recipients from buying unhealthy foods in a five-state, three-year trial. Democrats argued against it, highlighting the impracticality and the undue burden it would place on recipients and grocers. Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) criticized the project, referencing the minimal daily per-person SNAP benefit of $6. The amendment to remove the project was passed by a voice vote, led by Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.).
Democrats, including Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), argued the pilot project imposed unnecessary restrictions and inserted the government into personal choices at the checkout line. Rep. Bishop and DeLauro emphasized opposition from grocers and the impractical nature of the restrictions.
Rep. Harris defended the pilot, citing its potential to promote healthier eating habits and reduce obesity-related medical costs, which are estimated at $644 million annually. He noted opposition from major soft drink and snack food companies.
The USDA/FDA bill totals $210 billion, with $6.75 billion allocated for the FDA and $345 million for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The bill passed the committee on a 29-26 party-line vote after three and a half hours of debate.
Key provisions include:
· Blocking USDA enforcement of livestock marketing regulations.
· Cutting $619 million from the Food for Peace program.
· Increasing scrutiny on foreign purchases of agricultural land and businesses, especially by nationals from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
Riders included in the bill:
• Overriding USDA regulations on milk allowances in the WIC program.
• Blocking USDA from implementing President Biden’s executive order on racial equity.
• Delaying FDA actions on sodium reduction in food.
• Directing FDA to prioritize cracking down on vaping products over banning menthol cigarettes or setting nicotine limits for cigarettes.