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Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... Trade is the top concern for many farmers and ag industry officials — and rightfully so. But energy and food policy will also be key components for agriculture under the Trump administration. We cover highlights from recent confirmation hearings for EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and Health and Human Services Secretary nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Weather improved somewhat in South America, though Argentina remains in need of extended rains amid increased crop stress and falling production estimates. The concern in Brazil remains wet conditions in central locations, which are slowing soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. Warm winter conditions are a concern for several key global wheat producers. On the economic front, the Fed paused its monetary easing cycle. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.
Cattle Inventory Report: Slightly smaller herd, no signs of expansion... USDA estimated there were 86.662 million head of cattle in the U.S. as of Jan. 1, down 495,000 head (06%) from last year and the lowest since 1951. The beef cow herd declined 149,000 head (0.4%) to 27.864 million head. The 2024 calf crop was estimated at 33.530 million head, down 33,000 head (0.1%) from the previous year.
| Cattle Inventory Report | USDA(% of year-ago) | Average estimate (% of year-ago) |
| All cattle/calves on Jan. 1 | 99.4 | 99.1 |
| Cow/heifers that have calved | 99.6 | 99.6 |
| Beef cows | 99.5 | 99.3 |
| Dairy cows | 100.0 | 100.2 |
| Heifers 500 lbs.+ | 99.2 | 99.5 |
| Beef heifer replacements | 99.0 | 101.3 |
| Dairy heifer replacements | 99.1 | 100.6 |
| Other heifers | 99.4 | 98.2 |
| Steers 500 lbs.+ | 99.0 | 98.6 |
| Bulls 500 lbs.+ | 98.9 | 99.7 |
| All calves 500 lbs. and under | 99.8 | 98.1 |
| Calf crop (2024) | 99.9 | 98.5 |
The number of beef heifers expected to calve in 2025 dropped 50,000 head (1.7%) and total beef replacement heifers declined 46,000 head (1.0%). Combined with the slightly smaller beef cow inventory, the 2025 calf crop will continue to shrink.
The total number of cattle in all feedlots as of Jan. 1 stood at 14.297 million head, down 129,000 head ( 0.9%) from year-ago.
The milk cow herd at 9.349 million head was virtually unchanged from year-ago, though milk replacement heifers dropped 37,000 head (0.6%).
Based on the cow herd size and number of heifers being held back for breeding, the total U.S. cattle herd is likely to decline slightly again in 2025, with the Jan. 1, 2026, population potentially coming in just a bit lower.
Compared to pre-report expectations, the data was mostly neutral, though the lack of expansion plans was a modest surprise.
White House says China, Mexico, Canada tariffs to hit Feb. 1... President Donald Trump intends to move ahead with plans on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a 10% levy on China, the White House said, denying a report that he planned to delay the implementation by a month.
“I saw that report, and it is false,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Friday. “I was just with the President in the Oval Office, and I can confirm that tomorrow the Feb. 1 deadline that President Trump put into place” remains, she added.
“If the president at any time decides to roll back those tariffs, I’ll leave it to him to make that decision. But starting tomorrow (Feb. 1), those tariffs will be in place,” she said. She declined to say if there would be any exemptions to goods covered by the tariffs.
Survey quantifies Canadian farmers’ concern about impact of tariffs, potential trade war... New data from Real Agriculture’s RealAgristudies confirms and quantifies the level of concern in Canada’s agriculture sector if the U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on Canada on Feb. 1. Farmers who primarily produce livestock are slightly more likely to expect an impact on their farm business than mixed or primarily crop-focused farmers. Interestingly, there wasn’t much difference in how farmers see the potential impact when you compare age, farm size and geography.
Results of a survey of 660 Canadian farmers between Jan. 23 and Jan. 29 showed: 59% of respondents expect the proposed Trump tariffs will negatively impact their business. Only 7% feel there will be no effect. Another 7% don’t know if there will be an impact, while 27% see a possible impact of the Trump tariffs on their farm business.
When it comes to the likelihood of a trade war that significantly decreases Canadian agricultural exports, 29% of respondents feel that scenario is very likely, while 46% say it’s likely; 11% feel a trade war that hurts ag exports is unlikely.
Livestock producers tend to see a trade war as more likely (88%) than mixed (72%) or primarily crop producers (75%).
In terms of how Canada should respond to the tariffs, 34% of respondents said “all of the above” to including export tariffs on key items to the U.S., dollar for dollar retaliation and cutting off certain U.S. imports into Canada; 23% of farmers see an export tariff on key items like potash and energy as the best response as the best singular option.
Soyoil use for biofuels declines in November... Soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the U.S. declined to 1.192 billion lbs. in November, down from 1.227 billion lbs. the previous month, according to the Energy Information Administration. Usage increased 11.9% from November 2023. Biofuel usage included 724 million lbs. by biodiesel plants and 467 million lbs. by renewable diesel facilities. Usage for biodiesel plants increased 15 million lbs. while renewable diesel plants used 51 million lbs. less soyoil than during October.
China’s COFCO committed to Brazil soy-buying moratorium... Chinese state-owned grain trader COFCO is committed to Brazil’s soy-buying moratorium, Allan Virtanen, the company’s global director of communications and sustainability said, despite pressure from Brazilian farmers to make it less rigorous. The soy moratorium is a voluntary commitment by global grain traders not to buy soy grown in areas of Amazon deforestation after 2008.
Sergio Ferreira, COFCO’s director of operations in Brazil, said COFCO is on track to start operating a new grain terminal at Port of Santos in Sao Paulo in April. The new terminal, called STS11, will handle 14.5 MMT of commodities including soybeans, corn, sugar and soymeal per year when fully operational in 2026. STS11 will be COFCO’s biggest export port terminal in the world.
Dairy Margin Coverage enrollment open... The registration and election period for the 2025 Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program opened on Jan. 29 and runs through March 31. Coverage is retroactive to Jan. 1, using the adjusted base production history from 2024. The DMC program was extended under the temporary spending measure that continued the 2018 Farm Bill.