Evening Report | January 28, 2025

Top stories for Jan. 28, 2025

Pro Farmer's Evening Report
Pro Farmer’s Evening Report
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Brazil port finds ‘adulterated’ soymeal truck cargoes... The Parana state port authority, which oversees operations at the port of Paranagua and Antonina in southern Brazil, said sand had been detected in soymeal cargoes during an inspection, according to a statement sent to Reuters. That is considered “product adulteration,” the statement said.
A spokesperson for the port could not immediately confirm the soymeal cargoes’ destination, but said a total of 51 trucks carrying 2,200 MT had been identified as moving the adulterated product. The port said the trucks had come from Mato Grosso state. The European Union is the main destination for Brazilian soymeal exports.

Brazil’s ag ministry will now verify whether companies have complied with administrative regulations, including the correct disposal of the adulterated soymeal, the port said.
This incident comes as China stopped receiving Brazilian soybean shipments amid phytosanitary issues.

Craig opens contentious equity/regional issue in farm bill debate... Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), the new top Democrat on the House Ag Committee, is calling for adjustments to reference prices proposed in last year’s farm bill draft. Her advocacy stems from concerns over what she says are the uneven distribution of farm bill benefits across U.S. regions.

Craig noted that Midwest producers felt overlooked in the previous proposal, which featured major reference price increases for southern commodities. These adjustments, heavily favoring southern states, were a key feature of the House Republican bill.
Former Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) last year offered a 5% increase in reference prices for rice, peanuts and cotton and no increase for all other crops. House Ag Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) offered an increase for all crops based on costs, which all farm groups endorsed. Says one farm policy analyst: “The Democrats keep hanging on this idea that the Stabenow proposal is better for northern crops. Delusional.”

As for Craig’s equity argument, some analysts wonder how corn and soybeans stack up with other farm program commodities when you include the mandated use of those crops in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program.

Meanwhile, Craig also said the votes will not be there for a new farm bill in 2025 if Republicans cut food stamp (SNAP) funding and/or eligibility. However, if portions of a new farm bill (a boost in reference prices, conservation funding and SNAP changes) are included in the forthcoming GOP-led budget reconciliation measure, House and Senate Republicans could pass the budget measure without any Democratic votes – although with some hurdles.

Trump pushes for permanent energy policies through budget bill... President Donald Trump aims to solidify his energy policies by leveraging the budget reconciliation process, he told House GOP lawmakers on Monday at his Doral resort in Miami. Highlighting his declaration of a national energy emergency, Trump emphasized his commitment to “drill baby, drill” and pledged to make these policies permanent through legislative means.

Besides boosting oil and gas production, Trump’s agenda includes extending his signature tax cuts, signaling a focus on energy independence and economic growth.

Meanwhile, a coalition of 161 organizations has urged Congress to preserve the 45Q tax credit, a vital incentive for carbon sequestration and management technologies. The Carbon Capture Coalition highlighted the credit’s role in reducing foreign energy reliance and maintaining domestic energy production. As House Republicans consider a budget reconciliation bill, many have expressed support for maintaining 45Q while opposing other clean energy tax incentives.

Trump pressured to postpone ethanol policy shift amid infrastructure concerns... President Trump faces calls to delay a gasoline policy change designed to boost corn-based ethanol sales. In a letter on Jan. 24, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine urged EPA to postpone the shift to higher-ethanol E15 gasoline until spring 2026, citing infrastructure readiness concerns.

The 2022 EPA rule, which removes a volatility exemption for E10 in eight Midwestern states, requires new fueling infrastructure, prompting oil industry warnings of increased costs and potential disruptions. DeWine supports federal legislation to streamline the process but highlighted continued challenges in meeting the current summer deadline.
This request marks an early test of Trump’s stance on biofuel policy, as ethanol advocates criticize the pace of the transition.

Texas Republican proposes repeal of 45Z... Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas) introduced HR 549, a bill to repeal the Clean Fuels Production Credit (45Z) established under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA/Climate Act). The credit, which took effect on Jan. 1, incentivizes low-carbon biofuel production and supports climate-smart agricultural practices.

While Van Duyne’s legislation lacks co-sponsors, its introduction marks a challenge to a program that has seen general Republican support. The Treasury Department recently issued preliminary guidance on 45Z, and USDA unveiled interim rules for climate-smart farming practices aimed at improving carbon intensity scores for crops used in biofuels. The Trump administration is set to finalize both the 45Z program details and related agricultural practices.

Van Duyne chairs the Small Business Subcommittee on Economic Growth and serves on multiple Ways and Means subcommittees. Her bill seeks to retroactively end the 45Z credit.

Canada’s Freeland: Trump threatening allies to send signal to China... Chrystia Freeland, the Canadian politician who is vying to replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister, told Bloomberg she believes President Trump is threatening to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and other allies in part to pave the way for tougher policies on China.

“He has come to the conclusion that if he can show the rest of the world how mean and tough he can be with his closest partners and allies — how much he’s prepared to beat up on those really nice Canadians, who throughout history have been great partners for the U.S. — how do you think that’s going to make the Chinese feel?

Canada can work with the Trump administration to reshape global trade and weaken China’s dominance of supply chains, Freeland said. Freeland noted, “Canada can be a valuable and intelligent partner for the U.S. in the effort to rebalance the global economy.” She identified incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as a potential ally that Canada can work with to help change the game on global trade. She called him “an incredibly sophisticated global economic thinker.”

During Trump’s first term, Freeland helped lead Canada’s negotiations on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and gained a reputation for being stubborn and aggressive.

U.S. consumer confidence declines again in January... U.S. consumer confidence weakened for a second straight month in January amid renewed concerns about the labor market and inflation. The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to 104.1 this month from an upwardly revised 109.5 reading for December. The present situation index decreased from 144.0 in December to 134.3, while the expectations index dropped from 86.5 to 83.9.

“Views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of business conditions weakened for the second month in a row,” said Dana Peterson, the chief economist at the Conference Board. “Additionally, references to inflation and prices continue to dominate write-in responses.”