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Soybean crush tops expectations... U.S. soy processors crushed 210.0 million bu. of soybeans in November, which was 1.9 million bu. more than analysts expected. Crush declined 5.8 million bu. (2.8%) from the all-time record in October but increased 9.9 million bu. (4.9%) from November 2023.
Corn-for-ethanol use slightly bigger than expected... Corn-for-ethanol use totaled 464.9 million bu. in November, 1.2 million bu. more than analysts expected. Ethanol use declined 1.8 million bu. (0.4%) from the upwardly revised figure for October but increased 7.7 million bu. (1.7%) from last year.
USDA delays Jan. 9 reports due to President Carter’s funeral... USDA will release its export sales report for the week ended Jan. 2 on Friday, Jan. 10, a day later that normal due to a national day of mourning and state funeral for former President Jimmy Carter on Jan. 9. Weekly livestock slaughter data will also be pushed back one day to Friday, Jan. 10.
Southern Ag Today: Good news for U.S. producers, but now what?... The final days of 2024 brought welcome relief for U.S. farmers, as Congress passed and President Joe Biden signed the American Relief Act) into law on Dec. 21. This continuing resolution extends federal funding through March 14, , averting a government shutdown and provides critical support for agriculture by extending the 2018 Farm Bill through Sept. 30. With overwhelming bipartisan support, the legislation also authorized $30.78 billion in disaster and economic loss assistance, including $10 billion specifically for economic aid to farmers.
However, the question now is how this assistance will be implemented. Producers and lenders are eager for clarity on the payment distribution. Congress provided USDA with detailed instructions, but uncertainties remain, particularly regarding payment rates for covered crops. While past guidance suggested using estimated rates, variations in minor crop estimates could affect the final payments.
To mitigate uncertainty, Southern Ag Today recommends lenders use 85% of the estimated rates when calculating loan packages. Payments are required to be distributed within 90 days of enactment, meaning clearer guidance should arrive before the spring planting season. This marks a crucial step forward, but the exact impact of this assistance depends on USDA’s execution in the coming months, the report concludes.
Concerns over Biden administration’s trade renegotiations... Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) criticized the Biden administration for allegedly conducting secretive renegotiations of key trade agreements, including the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and a separate deal with Colombia. These claims have sparked a broader debate over the transparency and implications of such efforts.
Sen. Britt accused the administration of negotiating “behind closed doors” without adequately informing the public. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has echoed these concerns, accusing the U.S. Trade Representative’s office of engaging in “secret” talks that could reshape investment protections.
A central issue is the potential modification of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions. Critics, including Sen. Britt, argue these changes could undermine protections for U.S. companies investing in partner nations, jeopardizing their ability to operate in international markets.
Framing the negotiations as a strategic move, Sen. Britt claims the Biden administration is attempting to “shackle the coming Trump administration.” This highlights the potential long-term impacts of these talks on future trade policies.
These developments occur amid heightened scrutiny of U.S. trade policies. The Biden administration has emphasized reshaping trade agreements to strengthen domestic industries and integrate climate change considerations into policy frameworks.
Sen. Britt and others are urging the administration to provide more clarity on the renegotiations, emphasizing the importance of public discourse in shaping significant trade policy decisions.
Trump’s energy policy: A shift toward fossil fuels and mining in 2025... President-elect Donald Trump plans a dramatic shift in U.S. energy and environmental policies, signaling a departure from the Biden administration’s focus on combating climate change. Trump’s agenda prioritizes fossil fuels and mining, aiming to achieve American “energy dominance,” reduce energy costs and roll back regulatory barriers.
Of note: While Trump can overturn Biden-era executive orders and implement industry-friendly policies, experts highlight constraints like market forces, economic feasibility and legal challenges that may temper the impact. Trump’s appointments, such as North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum for Interior Secretary and Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright for Energy Secretary, signal a pro-industry stance.
However, issues like regulatory processes for mining and oil production, market dynamics and litigation timelines remain significant hurdles.
Experts predict the long-term impact of these policies will depend on Congress’ willingness to enact meaningful reforms and how global markets respond to shifts in U.S. energy strategy.
Significant ‘Arctic Outbreak’ to expand across much of the central and eastern United States... The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned: “A significant pattern change is expected across much of the country as an Arctic Outbreak is forecast to spread from the Northern Plains to the south and east Jan. 8-14, leading to exceptionally high probabilities of below-normal temperatures expected across much of the East. The coldest air of the season to date and dangerous wind chills are likely across many areas of the Southeast. Below freezing temperatures are possible as far south as the Gulf Coast and much of the Florida Peninsula. Impacts to highly sensitive citrus crops are possible. Frozen precipitation is possible across parts of the interior Southern Plains and Southeast with the potential for heavy snow extending northward to include much of Appalachians, Ohio Valley, interior Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast, potentially leading to significant travel disruptions. Additionally, heavy Lake Effect snow is likely to enhance totals for areas downwind of the Great Lakes as the Arctic Air pushes south across partially unfrozen waters.”
Debt ceiling reinstated as U.S. faces fiscal deadline... The U.S. debt ceiling was reinstated today at just under $36.2 trillion. While Congress has several months to act before a potential default, President-elect Donald Trump is urging GOP lawmakers to address the issue before his Jan. 20 inauguration. The Treasury Department will soon need to deploy extraordinary measures to prevent a default, which could disrupt payments such as Social Security benefits and federal workers’ salaries. Failure to act could destabilize global markets and the economy.