Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... It was another crazy week of action on the tariffs front. President Donald Trump enacted reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners, only to announce a 90-day pause shortly thereafter – aside from China. Instead of showing a willingness to negotiate, Beijing took a hardline stance, which led to an escalation of tariffs on both sides. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods now stand at 145%. The EU will delay for 90 days implementation of its counter tariffs against U.S. duties but is prepared to proceed if negotiations don’t go well. Many other countries have shown a willingness to negotiate. Grains absorbed the tariffs news and extreme volatility in other markets relatively well. Livestock markets were hit by concerns the Chinese market is now virtually shut off to U.S. meat exports due to tariffs and given recessionary concerns with trade disruptions. USDA’s April Supply & Demand Report featured bigger-than-expected cuts to corn and soybean ending stocks, especially for corn. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.
NGFA warns trade disruptions cost U.S. agriculture global market share... The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) issued a sobering analysis this week, warning that U.S. agriculture continues to suffer long-term consequences whenever trade policy is weaponized. According to NGFA, historical precedent shows that when the U.S. restricts ag exports, global competitors step in — often permanently.
“History is clear: when the United States uses trade policy to restrict agricultural exports, U.S. agriculture pays the price,” the NGFA stated.
The group pointed to several notable examples:
- 1979 Soviet grain embargo: Following the Carter administration’s embargo, U.S. grain and oilseed production plunged by 12%—a loss of 39 million metric tons. In response, global competitors increased production by 27 million tons. “It was America’s decision to prohibit grain exports in the late ‘70s that forced food-deficit countries to invest in South American grain production – giving rise to today’s greatest competitors,” NGFA wrote. Over the next decade, as the U.S. implemented the Conservation Reserve Program and dealt with lingering export fallout, global competitors added 187 million tons to their annual production while U.S. output declined further.
- 2018–2019 tariff retaliation: Echoing past outcomes, U.S. grain production fell by 42 MMT in 2019 after retaliatory tariffs from China and the European Union took hold. The rest of the world increased output by a nearly identical amount to fill the market void.
NGFA emphasized that these outcomes are not historical flukes — they are repeating patterns. “Whether it is Carter’s grain policies or modern-day trade wars, the result is the same: U.S. agriculture surrenders market share, and competitors – especially in South America – step in to stay.”
The association confirmed it has shared this analysis directly with U.S. policymakers.
Economic implications of the U.S. dollar’s decline for economy, ag sector... The recent plunge in the U.S. dollar to the lowest since April 2022 has far-reaching implications for the American economy, creating both opportunities and challenges across various sectors, including agriculture.
Trade deficit concerns: The agricultural trade deficit is projected to reach a record $49 billion in fiscal year 2025 due to stagnant exports and rising imports. This widening gap reflects reduced competitiveness in global markets despite the dollar’s decline.
While a weaker dollar can boost export competitiveness for U.S. agriculture, rising input costs and trade policy uncertainties present significant challenges for farmers navigating an increasingly volatile market environment. Bottom line: The dollar’s trajectory will ultimately depend on how the U.S. economy responds to current trade policies, with the higher yields on U.S. bonds compared to other government securities remaining an important attraction for international investors despite currency challenges.
Click here for further information.
Imports at busiest U.S. port set to drop next month as tariffs hit... Imports at the Port of Los Angeles, America’s busiest port, should start declining as soon as May and are set to fall sharply in the second half of the year as punitive tariffs start to weigh on demand for foreign goods. About 40% of the imports that enter the U.S. via the Port of LA hail from China, which now face a 145% tariff.
“We could see a drop off in volume starting as early as the month of May,” Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said. He added that “at the very least,” the port will see a 10% drop in imports in the second half of the year. “I’ll continue my calls in the evening Pacific Time with my friends back in Asia to see what bookings are looking like,” Seroka said. “But buckle up, this is going to get really bumpy for us.”
In March, loaded imports at the Port of LA came in at some 385,500 twenty-foot container equivalent units (TEUs). That represented a 1.6% increase from the year before as importers rushed to boost inventories before more punitive tariffs came into effect, Seroka said.
U.S. producer prices decline in March... U.S. producer prices notched their first monthly decline in nearly 1.5 years in March as gasoline prices plunged, but tariffs on imported goods are expected to significantly boost inflation in the coming months. The producer price index dropped 0.4% on a monthly basis and eased to 2.7% above year-ago. This marked the smallest annual gain in producer prices since September. Core factory gate prices declined 0.1% from the previous month and eased to 3.3% above year-ago last month.
Consumer sentiment plunges in April amid inflation concerns... Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 10.9% from March, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. The April reading at 50.8 was the second lowest on record, driven lower by surging inflation concerns. The Current Economic Conditions Index fell 11.4% to 56.5, while the Index of Consumer Expectations dropped 10.3% to 47.2.
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, “Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month. The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the fifth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009.”
Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.7% this month, the highest reading since 1981. Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April.
Senators push USDA to expand HPAI strategy to cover turkeys, dairy cows... Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) are calling on USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to broaden USDA’s response to the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), emphasizing the unique challenges facing the turkey and dairy industries amid what experts are calling the largest animal disease outbreak in U.S. history. In a bipartisan letter (link), the senators acknowledged USDA’s February 2025 strategic plan as a good starting point, but warned it falls short in addressing the specific needs of turkey farmers and dairy producers. They pressed for:
- Enhanced biosecurity protocols customized for poultry and dairy operations
- Accelerated vaccine development and approval, particularly for dairy cattle
- Clear trade frameworks to prevent international barriers due to vaccine use
- Timelines for coverage of turkey and dairy sectors in USDA’s strategy
The push follows the 2024 emergence of HPAI in dairy cattle — an unprecedented cross-species jump. The virus has now been confirmed in nearly 1,000 dairy herds across 17 states and has affected more than 18.6 million turkeys.
The senators urged USDA to update Congress on how it plans to integrate these concerns and prevent further devastation. The outbreak has not only battered producers but also contributed to sharp price increases in eggs, dairy and poultry products.