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Argentina receives rains, more needed... Needed rain fell across portions of interior southern Argentina since Monday night. The two waves of rain were the most significant since the beginning of December. This provided temporary relief for areas receiving the rains, though more will be needed.
World Weather Inc. said: “This rain event will help the northern parts of Buenos Aires and neighboring crop areas to the north coast a little better through the coming week of dry and warmer biased weather; however, hotter temperatures will deplete the moisture relatively quickly raising the need for more rain. Much of Cordoba has also seen some good alternating patterns of rain and sunshine this summer and crops in that province are likely in mostly good shape. That shrinks the area of serious moisture and heat stress down a bit. There has certainly been enough stress in parts of Argentina to reduce its overall production, but the losses are unlikely to be nearly as great as those seen in the early 2020s. With that said, though, it is important to note that the growing season is only half over and there is still plenty of crop that could suffer greatly from ongoing heat and dryness. Central and northern Argentina along with southern Buenos Aires will continue to deal with very dry field conditions. The odds are high that crop moisture stress in the coming week will further pressure potential yields lower in those areas and a close watch on the next rain event is warranted since early indications suggest some of the rain coming during mid-week next week may be a little too light to seriously restore soil moisture and fully reverse the potential damage done to seriously stressed crops by this time next week.”
Ag trade deficit widens in December... U.S. ag exports totaled $16.15 billion in December against imports of $18.27 billion, resulting in a monthly deficit of $2.12 billion. This marked the 14th month of the past 15 in which agricultural trade posted a deficit. Three months into fiscal year (FY) 2025, cumulative exports stood at $49.56 billion, while imports totaled $55.29 billion for a deficit of $5.73 billion. USDA forecasts ag exports in FY 2025 of $170.0 billion and imports at a record $215.5 billion. That would leave the U.S. with a record ag trade deficit of $45.5 billion, up from $31.8 billion in FY 2024.
Record imports sharply widen U.S. trade deficit in December... The U.S. trade increased 24.7% to $98.4 billion in December, the highest since March 2022, from a revised $78.9 billion for November. Imports increased 3.5% to an all-time high of $364.9 billion, while exports declined 2.6% to $266.5 billion. For 2024, the deficit increased 17% from 2023 to $918.4 billion. Exports increased 3.9% to $3.192 trillion and imports rose 6.6% to $4.110 billion.
China launches WTO dispute over Trump tariffs... China has launched a dispute at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on Chinese goods. In a statement cited by the WTO, China’s government said the measures appeared to be inconsistent with U.S. obligations under the agreement that led to the creation of the trade body.
“China reserves the right to raise additional measures and claims regarding the matters identified herein during the course of consultations and in any future request for the establishment of a panel,” the Chinese statement said.
Navarro frames tariffs as a ‘drug war’ strategy, not a trade war... Peter Navarro, President Trump’s senior trade adviser, has characterized the administration’s new 10% tariff on Chinese imports as part of a “drug war” rather than a trade dispute. He emphasized the move aims to pressure China to curb fentanyl production. Key takeaways from Navarro’s remarks at a Politico event include:
- Not a trade war: Navarro insists the tariffs are not about trade but national security.
- Drug trafficking focus: The administration frames the tariffs as a response to the fentanyl crisis.
- Potential escalation: Future tariff increases remain on the table.
- Trade deficit concerns: The administration is evaluating the economic impact of trade imbalances.
- Universal tariff possibility: A broad tariff is under consideration, possibly to fund tax cuts.
Bottom line: This marks a shift from Trump’s first term, with a more immediate and aggressive tariff strategy. The administration appears poised to take further economic measures, keeping options open while focusing on national security concerns.
USPS reverses course on China, Hong Kong shipments amid tariff changes... The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) has reversed its decision to halt certain international shipments from China and Hong Kong, now stating it will accept “all international inbound mail and packages” from the region. This follows an earlier announcement that briefly paused such shipments, causing confusion and weighing on shares of Chinese e-commerce giants like Alibaba and JD.com.
The move comes as USPS works with U.S. Customs and Border Protection to implement new tariff collection mechanisms after President Donald Trump revoked the “de minimis” rule, which previously allowed packages under $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free. The policy change is part of a broader effort to crack down on a trade loophole used by Chinese e-commerce retailers like Temu and Shein.
According to a Government Accountability Office report, USPS’ share of global mail has declined significantly in recent years, with private carriers like FedEx and UPS absorbing much of the volume.
USDA detects new strain of HPAI not previously seen in dairy cattle... USDA has detected a strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle that previously had not been seen in cows, the agency’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service said.
Before this detection, all of the 957 dairy cow herd HPAI infections reported this year had been caused by the same strain of the virus, according to USDA. Genome sequencing of milk from Nevada had identified a different strain present in dairy cows for the first time. The strain was the predominant genotype among wild birds since last fall. It was identified through the agency’s National Milk Testing Strategy, which began testing milk across the country for HPAI in December.
DOE extends LNG export study comment period... The Department of Energy (DOE) has extended the public comment period for its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Export Study, originally published on Dec. 20, 2024. The new deadline for submissions is now March 20, instead of the initial Feb. 18 date. DOE cited the large volume of responses — tens of thousands already filed — as a reason for the extension, emphasizing the benefit to stakeholders. The study follows former President Trump’s executive order pausing LNG export licenses after taking office.