Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Soybean producers: Increase 2024-crop sales, make initial 2025-crop sales... March soybeans hit the bottom end of our sales target range at $10.75 in late-day trading. We advise hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 15% of 2024-crop in the cash market to get to 55% sold. We also advise selling an initial 10% of expected 2025-crop production for harvest delivery. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Trump in no rush to speak to China’s Xi about trade... President Donald Trump said he was in no hurry to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping amid an escalating trade war between the two countries. Trump said he’ll speak to Xi at the appropriate time, saying it’s “fine” that China imposed retaliatory tariffs.
Trump targets EU on trade, Brussels seeks to avert trade war via negotiation... President Trump has renewed his criticism of the European Union, accusing it of exploiting the U.S. on trade, particularly in autos and agriculture. “The European Union has abused the United States for years, and they can’t do that,” he said. In response, European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, signaled their intent to push back. Given that the U.S. and the EU are each other’s largest sources of foreign direct investment, a trade battle between them could have serious economic consequences.
The EU sees a potential path to negotiating with the Trump administration to avoid a transatlantic tariff fight, Bloomberg reports, citing a person familiar with the bloc’s thinking. Following Trump’s decision to delay broad tariffs on Mexico and Canada, EU officials believe a diplomatic resolution is possible despite heightened rhetoric from Washington. However, the EU faces challenges in engaging with key U.S. trade officials, as several positions remain unfilled.
The bloc is preparing a strategic response, including potential countermeasures targeting politically sensitive U.S. industries, while also seeking common ground on trade, energy, and China policy. With tariffs on European steel and aluminum exports looming, the EU is considering extending a tariff suspension to maintain a positive approach and avoid escalation.
Fed officials warn tariffs could stoke inflation, delay rate cuts... Federal Reserve officials warned that implementing a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods, as proposed (but delayed) by the Trump administration, could drive inflation higher. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that broad tariffs would raise prices for both final and intermediate goods. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized the need for caution in lowering interest rates due to potential inflation risks, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic highlighted that inflationary effects would depend on how the tariffs are executed. All three officials agreed the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates, aligning with Chair Jerome Powell’s stance that the central bank will wait for tariff policies to materialize before adjusting its monetary strategy.
Farmers retain optimistic outlook for 2025 despite ag trade uncertainty... Farmers retained their post-election optimistic outlook at the start of the new year as the January Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rose 5 points to a reading of 141. That was 35 points (33%) above the January 2024 reading. The barometer’s rise was primarily attributable to a 9-point rise in the Current Conditions Index, while the Future Expectations Index rose 3 points. Compared to recent surveys, fewer producers this month pointed to lower crop and livestock prices as a top concern, which helped explain why producers felt better about the current situation. The shift in attitudes was attributable in part to an improvement in crop prices from the time of the December to the January survey.
Producers expect 2025 to be better than 2024, as the Farm Financial Performance Index is at its highest level since late 2021. However, producers are concerned about the future of agricultural trade, with over 40% of respondents citing “trade policy” as the most important policy for their farm in the next five years and 40% of producers saying that they think a trade war is either “likely” or “very likely.”
Click here to view the full survey results.
Panama weighs ending port deal amid U.S./China tensions... Panama is considering canceling a contract with Hong Kong-based Hutchison Ports PPC, which operates two ports near the Panama Canal, in response to pressure from President Trump over China’s influence in the region, Bloomberg reports. The potential move follows U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit, during which Panama pledged free passage for U.S. warships and announced plans to withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative. While no final decision has been made, legal challenges to the contract are also emerging, citing constitutional violations and excessive tax breaks.
Brazil farmers to rely more on silo bags for crop storage... With potential record production of both soybeans and corn in Brazil, farmers are expected to increase their use of silo bags for the 2024/25 crop. South American consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says Brazil’s grain production has been increasing in recent years at a rate of 5% per year, whereas the amount of grain storage has been increasing at 3% per year. Silo bags have become a popular option for storing grains due to their cost-effectiveness, flexibility, and ease of use. Cordonnier says farmers typically use these bags for temporary storage, offering an effective solution for holding grain right after harvest, especially for soybeans. When the safrinha corn is harvested in June, July and August, it is the dry season and any excess corn can be temporarily piled outside for a few months.
Brazil imports record amount of fertilizers in 2024... According to the January edition of the Logistical Bulletin from Conab, Brazil imported a record 44.3 MMT of fertilizers during 2024, which represented an 8.3% increase compared to 40.9 MMT in 2023. Most of Brazil’s fertilizer imports enter the country through the southeastern ports of Paranagua and Santos, but the “Northern Arc” of ports are gaining market share. The Port of Paranagua imported 11 MMT of fertilizers in 2024 compared to 10.3 MMT in 2023.The Port of Santos imported 8.88 MMT last year compared to 8.56 MMT in 2023 and the “Northern Arc” of ports imported 7.52 MMT compared to 5.97 MMT in 2023.
Cordonnier notes it makes sense to import more fertilizers through the northern ports because they are closer to the area of expanding grain production in central Brazil.
Arctic competition heats up as Russia expands influence... Russia is rapidly expanding its presence in the Arctic, working closely with China and outpacing the U.S. in the region, the Wall Street Journal reports. Shrinking sea ice has opened up new shipping routes, fueling geopolitical and commercial competition. Last year, over 1,300 voyages used Russia’s Northern Sea Route, which is significantly faster than the Suez Canal. Meanwhile, Canada’s Northwest Passage remains far less developed. Russia has also leveraged its Arctic waterways to ship fuel to China. In response, the U.S. and Canada plan to acquire more icebreakers, but they lag far behind Russia’s fleet of three dozen.
OPEC+ sticks to output plan, drops EIA as verification source... OPEC+ confirmed it will proceed with its planned gradual oil output increase starting in April, rejecting a request from President Donald Trump to boost production and lower prices. The group also removed the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Rystad Energy as monitoring sources, opting instead for Kpler, OilX and ESAI to assess production compliance. Reports suggest the decision to drop EIA was not political but due to data inadequacies. OPEC+ previously removed the International Energy Agency as a source in March 2022. A final decision on the April output increase is expected in early March.