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Bessent to urge China on economic rebalancing... U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to push China to shift its economy toward consumption in a call with his Chinese counterpart on Friday, he told Bloomberg TV in an interview. While the conversation will be introductory, it will also touch on fentanyl. Bessent and his counterpart aim to meet in person at the World Bank-IMF meeting in April. He also noted he will skip next week’s G20 finance ministers meeting in South Africa, expecting China to do the same.
Spring weather outlook favorable for Corn Belt, unfavorable for Southern Plains... The 90-day forecast from the National Weather Service covering March through May shows increased chances for above-normal temperatures across the South and East Coast. Aside from far eastern areas, the Corn Belt is expected to see “equal chances” for normal, above-normal and below-normal temps during the period. Below-normal temps are likely from the Pacific Northwest to the northwestern Plains. The outlook calls for increased odds of below-normal precip over most of the Central and Southern Plains. Above-normal precip is expected over the eastern Corn Belt, along with the eastern portions of Iowa and Missouri. The remainder of the Corn Belt is expected to see “equal chances” for spring precip.
The Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to develop or persist over the bulk of HRW wheat areas through May. Aside from persistent drought in northern/northwestern areas of the Corn Belt, drought conditions are not expected across the rest of the region.
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IGC trims global corn and soybean production, raises wheat crop forecast... The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast for 2024-25 global corn production by 3 MMT to 1.216 billion MT. Corn production is now expected to fall 15 MMT (1.2%) from 2023-24.
IGC raised its global wheat crop forecast by 1 MMT to 797 MMT. That would be up 2 MMT (0.3%) from 2023-24.
IGC cut its world soybean crop forecast by 2 MMT to 418 MMT, though that would still be a record and up 22 MMT (5.3%) from 2023-24.
USDA forecasts global production at 1.212 billion MT for corn, 794 MMT for wheat and 421 MMT for soybeans.
Placements the focal point in Cattle on Feed Report... Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect USDA to show the Feb. 1 large feedlot inventory (1,000-plus head) down 0.8% from year-ago in Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report. Placements are expected to be up 2.2% from last year, though the pre-report range extends from down 1.7% to up 6.1%, making that the key figure in the report. The U.S. had not reopened the border to Mexican cattle imports in January, though the year-ago figure was the lowest in eight years. January marketings are expected to be up 2.1% from last year.
| Cattle on Feed | Avg. Trade Estimate (% of year-ago) | Range(% of year-ago) | Million head |
| On Feed on Feb. 1 | 99.2 | 98.6 - 100.0 | 11.703 |
| Placements in January | 102.2 | 98.3 - 106.1 | 1.830 |
| Marketings in January | 102.1 | 101.6 - 102.5 | 1.882 |
Oil and biofuel groups urge EPA to expand RFS levels... A coalition of oil and biofuel industry groups is urging the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to increase biofuel blending requirements for 2026 and beyond. According to a Reuters report, the request was made in a letter signed by organizations including the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA).
Despite past disagreements over biofuels policy, the groups have united in support of expanding the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). “While our organizations have not always agreed on every detail, we have joined together in recognition of the critical role liquid fuels serve in the American economy, to advance liquid fuels, and ensure consumers have a choice of how they fuel their vehicles,” the letter, dated Feb. 19, stated.
The signatories emphasized the need for strong and steady biofuel volume targets, citing investments in feedstocks and production capacity. They also called on EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin to release multi-year RFS standards to provide greater market certainty.
The Biden administration previously indicated in its final regulatory agenda that it aims to finalize 2026 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) by December 2025 — a timeline that is 14 months behind the deadline set by law. The Reuters report noted the letter did not reference the pending Clean Fuels Production Credit (45Z), which still awaits finalization by the Trump administration.
Nutrien misses fourth-quarter profit estimates on lower potash, crop nutrient sales... Nutrien fell short of Wall Street expectations for fourth-quarter profits, as the top potash producer struggled with lower sales of crop nutrients and potash. Canada-based firm posted an adjusted profit of 31 cents per share for the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with the analysts’ average estimate of 35 cents per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Quarterly earnings were hit by a 37% annual slump in adjusted core profit in its potash segment to $291 million, hurt by lower net selling prices and sales volumes, which were mainly down in China and other Asian markets. Quarterly sales for its retail segment were also down about 9% at $3.18 billion from a year earlier, dragged by about a 15% drop in crop nutrients sales due to wet weather conditions in North America, as well as its strategic actions in Brazil.
House to vote on budget plan next week following Trump endorsement... According to Punchbowl News, the House will vote next week on its budget resolution after President Donald Trump backed the chamber’s “one-bill” strategy. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) called on Senate Republicans to abandon their competing measure, emphasizing the House’s version meets all of Trump’s priorities. “If [the Senate bill] came over [to the House], we’d just change the whole thing anyway,” Scalise said. Scalise said that committees will have all of March to assemble the policy particulars for the reconciliation package. And then the House will seek to pass the package in April.
The House plan includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, while also increasing the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. The package is expected to include Medicaid cuts, putting moderate Republicans in a difficult spot.
Meanwhile, Senate Republicans had proposed a narrower resolution focused on Pentagon and border security funding, but Trump’s endorsement of the House approach effectively settled the internal GOP debate. Vice President JD Vance gave Senate Republicans the blessing to go ahead with their budget resolution even though he informed them of Trump’s preference for the House version. Senate Republicans view their version as a fallback plan in the event that House Republicans are unable to move their larger version forward.
Report notes boosting reference prices still on potential list of budget reconciliation actions... House Republicans are mulling whether to use the budget reconciliation process to push through an increase in reference prices that are used to determine benefits to farmers under the farm bill safety net programs like the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC), according to a report from Congressional Quarterly (CQ). It confirms what we have been reporting for months. The CQ report quoted a Democratic congressional aide as saying the discussions were taking place with House Republicans viewing it to provide potential increased payments to farmers. However, the item pointed out there still was no final call on whether to take such an action and it quoted Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) as questioning whether a boost in reference prices via reconciliation could pass the “Byrd Rule” in the Senate. “I’m not sure that it would beat the Byrd rule in the Senate,” Grassley said, adding that it was an issue a “very worthy discussion” for a new farm bill. Lawmakers have now extended the 2018 Farm Bill for two years as they have been unable to come to terms on a new version of the legislation. The prospect of dealing with reference prices and potentially crop insurance outside the farm bill surfaced in late 2024 when lawmakers were putting together the short-term spending measure that has kept the government operating through March 14, but the provisions were not included in the final plan that was approved.
Comments: Our sources say the issues raised by Grassley relative to the Byrd rule are not a problem as lawmakers can boost reference prices via reconciliation. Says one Washington contact: “If Republicans ever want a farm bill that ‘puts the farm in the farm bill’ this is the only opportunity I can see. Otherwise, look for more extensions and billions in ad hoc relief.”
APHIS proposes continuing HPAI data collection, additional testing and reporting for livestock, milk... USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) published a notice in the Federal Register to continue the additional testing and reporting of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in livestock and milk. This is a non-controversial action with comments sought by April 21 on the reporting burden for information collection.
China’s central bank vows measures to support real estate sector... China’s central bank said it will support setting up a new model of real estate development to help stabilize the crisis-hit sector property sector. It will also improve real estate financial management.