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Reuters: World Organization for Animal Health Says Mexico Finds NWS Case in Cow... The World Organization for Animal Health says the New World Screwworm (NWS) pest was found in a cow in Mexico’s Tabasco state last week, according to Reuters.
On Feb. 1, USDA’s APHIS announced the resumption of cattle and bison imports from Mexico under a new comprehensive screening protocol.
Rollins discusses key ag topics at TPS... USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins outlined key priorities for the agricultural sector at the Top Producer Summit (TPS) in Kansas City.
Rollins addressed concerns regarding Robert F Kennedy Jr.’s appointment as Health and Human Services Secretary, acknowledging the agricultural community’s nervousness over his past comments on glyphosate and food production. However, she expressed confidence in their working relationship and his willingness to engage in dialogue over agricultural policies.
On biofuels, she reaffirmed the administration’s support, highlighting its importance for Midwest producers and national energy independence.
She also reassured stakeholders that vital programs like crop insurance and farm loans remain a priority, noting President Trump’s strong backing from the rural community.
Rollins emphasized the link between food security and national security, vowing to champion policies that support agricultural sustainability.
Rollins emphasized President Trump’s tariff strategy as a negotiation tool to strengthen U.S. agricultural trade. She stressed aggressively pursuing global trade agreements to reverse the $45.5 billion agricultural trade deficit forecast for fiscal year 2025.
Avian Flu Response & Egg Prices: USDA’s immediate focus is on controlling the avian flu (HPAI) outbreak. The administration is considering vaccination strategies but acknowledges differing opinions. The goal is to stabilize egg prices and support poultry farmers facing economic losses.
Farm Bill & USDA Modernization: Rollins affirmed the urgency of passing a farm bill and is engaging with both Republican and Democratic senators to ensure progress. She highlighted the need for USDA modernization, including streamlining bureaucratic inefficiencies and evaluating job cuts to ensure effectiveness.
Disaster & Economic Aid: Rollins acknowledged delays in disbursing agricultural aid approved by the previous Congress. She pledged to expedite the process, despite administrative transitions at USDA.
Food Assistance & Budget Scrutiny: With 80% of the USDA budget allocated to food programs like SNAP, Rollins stressed evaluating the effectiveness of these programs. She signaled potential policy shifts to encourage self-sufficiency among recipients.
Bottom line: Rollins’ early tenure signals an aggressive trade push, regulatory streamlining and food policy review. She aims to leverage the administration’s momentum to secure better deals for U.S. farmers, tackle immediate industry crises, and reshape USDA operations.
Plan to address HPAI outbreak and reduce egg prices in the works... National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has indicated that a plan to address the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak and reduce egg prices is in the works and will be presented to President Donald Trump soon. The plan is expected to be ready for Trump later this week. Hassett mentioned that he was editing the plan with his team, suggesting that it is in its final stages of preparation. While specific details are not yet available, Hassett has provided some insights into what the plan might include:
- Biosecurity measures: The plan aims to implement “better ways with biosecurity and medication” to control the spread of avian flu without resorting to mass culling of chickens.
- Smart perimeter approach: Instead of the previous administration’s approach of “randomly killing chickens within a perimeter where they found a sick chicken,” the new plan proposes a “smart perimeter” strategy.
- Scientific collaboration: Hassett mentioned working with “all the best people in government, including academics around the country and around the world” to develop the plan.
While not explicitly mentioned by Hassett, the plan could potentially include some of the following measures based on industry recommendations:
- Enhanced surveillance and early detection of HPAI outbreaks.
- Expedited flock replacement procedures.
- Measures to address labor shortages in the egg industry.
- Possible temporary easing of import restrictions.
- Investment in research for avian flu-resistant poultry breeds.
While the plan’s specific impact on egg prices and availability remains to be seen, the administration’s goal is to:
- Stabilize the egg supply by preventing large-scale culling of chickens.
- Indirectly address high egg prices by increasing availability in the marke.t
The effects of this new strategy may not be immediate. USDA still projects that egg prices will increase by about 20% in 2025.
Bottom line: The plan is still being finalized, and the exact details will only be known once it is officially presented to Trump and made public.
NOPA January soy crush second highest ever but shy of expectations... Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 200.4 million bu. of soybeans during January, down 6.2 million bu. from the record in December and 4.1 million bu. less than analysts expected. However, the crush figure was the second highest ever. NOPA data implies the full January crush of 212 million bushels. Our crush forecast for 2024-25 at 2.425 billion bu. is 15 million bu. above USDA’s.
Soyoil stocks rose 38.2 million lbs. to 1.274 billion lbs. at the end of January.
Surge in Chinese soy crush... Chinese soy processors crushed 1.94 MMT (71.3 million bu.) of soybeans last week, according to the China National Grains and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC). That was up 1.48 MMT from only 470,000 MT the previous week, as processors ramped up crush volume to make up for a shortfall in soymeal stocks coming off the Lunar New Year holiday. Soymeal stocks at major crushing plants stood at 440,000 MT, down 120,000 MT from mid-December and 150,000 MT below last year, CNGOIC said.
Some crushing plants may halt operations in March due to soybean shortages as arrivals are expected to remain sluggish into next month, further exacerbating the tightness in soymeal supply, CNGOIC said.
USDA releases long-term baseline projections... USDA released baseline projections through 2034. The projections, used mostly for budgetary purposes, are based on specific assumptions, including a macroeconomic scenario, existing U.S. policy and current international agreements, and based on the October Supply & Demand Report. USDA noted, “The scenario presented in this report is not a USDA forecast about the future. Instead, it is a conditional, long-run scenario of how markets would evolve under current conditions, existing laws, normal weather patterns and underlying trends.”
For 2025-26, USDA projects:
Corn: Plantings of 92 million acres, harvested area of 84.1 million acres, yield of 182 bu. per acre and production of 15.305 billion bushels. Ending stocks of 2.269 billion bushels. Average cash price: $3.90.
Beans: Plantings of 85 million acres, harvested area of 84.2 million acres, yield of 52.5 bu. per acre and production of 4.420 billion bushels. Ending stocks of 515 million bushels. Average cash price: $10.00.
Wheat: Plantings of 46.0 million acres, harvested area of 37.6 million acres, yield of 50.1 bu. per acre and production of 1.884 billion bushels. Ending stocks of 828 million bushels. Average cash price: $5.80.
Cotton: Plantings of 10.8 million acres, harvested area of 8.64 million acres, yield of 850 lbs. per acre and production of 15.3 million bales. Ending stocks of 4.38 million bales. Average cash price: 66 cents.
Shipping giants urge IMO to reject crop-based biofuels... Hapag-Lloyd AG and other major shipping firms are urging the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to steer clear of crop-based biofuels in its push for industry decarbonization. In a joint statement with the European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E), the companies warn that without strict safeguards, biofuels made from palm and soy could be even more harmful to the climate than traditional fuels due to deforestation and land-use changes. IMO, which oversees global shipping regulations under the United Nations, is working toward net-zero emissions by mid-century. However, the debate over biofuels is intensifying as IMO hosts discussions in London this week. Conservation groups have also opposed a Brazilian-backed proposal promoting biofuels as a long-term solution for the industry.
SNAP cuts could hit retail giants, food-insecure Americans hard... Millions of Americans could see reduced food assistance as House Republicans propose major budget cuts, including a $230 billion reduction to USDA. While details on SNAP-specific cuts remain uncertain, a previous GOP report suggests a 22% reduction. The impact would be felt not only by recipients but also by major retailers like Walmart and Kroger, which receive the largest share of SNAP spending. Meanwhile, House Democrats warn the cuts would hurt farmers, truckers and grocery workers, while USDA reviews alleged financial mismanagement of SNAP funds under the Biden administration.
WTO braces for trade showdown under Trump... The World Trade Organization’s General Council convenes through Wednesday for its first meeting since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, with a packed agenda that includes a heated dispute over new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. Beijing is expected to challenge Trump’s 10% levy, which has already sparked retaliatory measures and WTO dispute consultations. Meanwhile, Trump’s push for reciprocal tariffs is rattling European allies, adding uncertainty to global trade relations. Amid concerns about U.S. commitment to multilateralism, some question whether America’s WTO membership remains viable.
While this General Council meeting is taking place, the WTO also has other meetings and events scheduled throughout February, including sessions of the Dispute Settlement Body, Informal Council for Trade in Goods, and Trade Policy Review Body.
Xi vows support for China’s private firms... China’s political, economic and social environment is “very conducive” to the development of the private economy and policies will be implemented to help ease difficulties faced by private firms, an official from the country’s state planner told state broadcaster CCTV. The comments come after Chinese President Xi Jinping held a rare meeting on Monday with some of the biggest names in China’s technology sector, urging them to “show their talent” and be confident in the power of China’s model and market.
China will further break down investment barriers and will revise its negative list for market access which restricts investment in certain sectors as soon as possible, Zheng Bei, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), told CCTV. Measures will be taken to promote more open and fair access to infrastructure in competitive sectors and major national scientific research infrastructure to private enterprises, she added. At the same time, NDRC and relevant authorities will work on alleviating some of the urgent challenges such as accessing affordable financing, Zheng said.
In remarks aimed at boosting private sector sentiment, Xi said there are “broad prospects and great promise” in China’s private economy to create wealth and opportunity and China’s governance and the scale of its market give it an inherent advantage in developing new industries.
The private sector in China competes with state-owned companies and contributes more than half of tax revenue, more than 60% of economic output and 70% of tech innovation, official estimates show.
Brazilian biofuels firm Raizen undergoing ‘profound’ portfolio revision... Brazil’s largest sugar and ethanol maker Raizen SA is looking at potential asset sales and halting projects to build new plants in an effort to reduce debt after borrowing costs soared in the country. The company, a joint-venture between Brazilian conglomerate Cosan SA and oil giant Shell Plc, is undergoing a “profound” portfolio revision, Chief Executive Officer Nelson Gomes told analysts during an earnings call Monday.
Gomez didn’t disclose which assets would be offered for sale, but said the core businesses of sugar, ethanol and fuel distribution in Brazil and Argentina would remain the company’s focus. Raizen is also downsizing its trading arm, Gomes added.
Raizen Chief Financial Officer Rafael Bergman said the company will only go ahead with two second-generation ethanol plants that are currently under construction and will refrain from adding new projects that had been previously planned.