Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Corn producers: Increase old- and new-crop sales... March corn futures nearly hit our sales target at $5.00. Given uncertainty on the trade front and an upcoming three-day holiday weekend, we don’t want to risk a sharp price downturn. We advise corn hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 20% of 2024-crop production to get to 70% sold in the cash market. We also advise all corn producers to sell another 10% of expected 2025-crop production to get to 20% forward sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat producers: Increase old-crop sales... March SRW wheat futures hit our sales target at $6.00. We advise wheat hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 15% of 2024-crop production to get to 85% sold in the cash market.
Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on foreign countries with high tariffs and non-tariff barriers on U.S. exports, along with 25% levies on steel and aluminum, aiming to reshape trade policy. Many farmers, farm groups and lawmakers in agricultural states fear key trading partners will target U.S. ag goods in retaliation. USDA’s February crop reports featured few changes, with no adjustments to the U.S. corn or soybean balance sheets this month. The global focus remains soybean and corn crops in South America, where weather has improved recently, and winter wheat crops in the northern hemisphere. On the economic front, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers are in no hurry to cut interest rates as January consumer inflation rose and was hotter than expected. Surging egg prices, amid shortages due to impacts from highly pathogenic avian influenza, are a major source of food price inflation. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.
Presidents Day schedule... All markets and government offices are closed on Monday, Feb. 17, for Presidents Day. As a result, there will be no Pro Farmer updates on Monday. Grain markets reopen with the overnight session at 7:00 p.m. CT on Monday. Livestock markets resume trading at 8:30 a.m. CT on Tuesday, Feb. 18.
USDA gives conditional nod to Zoetis’ bird flu vaccine for poultry... USDA has granted Zoetis conditional approval to use its bird flu vaccine in poultry, the animal healthcare company said. a conditional license is used for emergencies, limited market availability or other special circumstance and is issued for a finite period of time. Zoetis said the conditional license was granted based on reasonable expectation of efficacy.
Rollins has long list of key issues to address... New USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins has a lot of key issues for agriculture that will need her near-term attention. Rollins’ immediate to-do list includes 1) Reviewing the various USDA grants and other funding that remain frozen; 2) Getting ag disaster ($21 billion) and economic aid ($10 billion) payments to eligible producers; 3) Working on the HPAI situation; 4) Monitoring the impact of tariffs on the U.S. ag sector and any need for a farmer aid program; 5) Advising key congressional members on a new farm bill; 6) Working with Treasury/IRS, EPA and Energy on finalizing the 45Z program; 7) Impacts on ag from mass deportations; 8) Food aid; and many others.
| Tasks for USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins | ||
| Task | Status | Comments |
| Review USDA grants and other funding that remain frozen | Pending | Awaiting review and decision-making |
| Getting ag disaster ($21 billion) and economic aid ($10 billion) payments made to eligible producers | In progress | Awaiting software programs/IT action; statutory deadline of March 21 |
| Working with NEC Director Kevin Hassett and others on the bird flu situation | Pending | Rollins had a meeting Feb. 13 with HPAI/bird flu experts |
| Monitoring impact of Trump tariffs on U.S. ag sector and any need for a farmer aid program | Pending | Monitoring and assessment in early stages; President Trump has requested several reports on reciprocal tariffs by April 1 |
| Advising congressional members on new farm bill | Pending | Discussions with congressional members are planned and some took place during Rollins’ preconfirmation meetings with lawmakers |
| Working with Treasury/IRS, EPA and Energy Dept. personnel on finalizing information regarding the 45Z program | In Progress | Collaboration with relevant departments is ongoing by USDA staffers, but Rollins will review and take part in coming meetings |
| Informing President Trump and others about the impact on farm country from mass deportations relative to border security | Pending | Impact analysis is pending; Rollins said during confirmation hearing that she supports President Trump’s deportation policy but will advise about the need for farm labor |
| Checking on and working with other agencies and departments regarding food aid | Pending | Interagency co-ordination is in planning phase |
| Working with her new staff and other key USDA personnel as they officially come into USDA | In Progress | Some new staff on board and integration is underway |
| Getting ready for fiscal year 2026 budget matters for USDA | Pending | Preparations for budget discussions are scheduled |
| Working with EPA and Dept. of Energy on the 2026 RFS RVOs | Pending | Initial discussions with EPA and Dept. of Energy are not yet scheduled |
| Dealing with a smaller USDA workforce via buyouts and other actions to reduce the number of government workers | Pending | Buyout plans and workforce reduction strategies and their impacts are under consideration |
| Addressing issues raised by the GAO relative to operation of the SNAP/food stamps program and other operational aspects of the program should they see any major changes under budget reconciliation | Pending | GAO issues are being reviewed for potential action |
Will there be a new farm bill this year?... That is a more complex question than most realize. Here are some possibilities:
- Some farm-state lawmakers want to put most if not all of a new farm bill in a budget reconciliation measure. Problems: Will House and Senate Republicans agree on a plan? If so, will GOP leaders want to put another major bill into an already hard-to-get reconciliation measure that includes key Trump agenda items? Will GOP House and Senate Ag Committee leaders demand the farm bill be part of any reconciliation measure to get their votes?
- Stand-alone farm bill. While a solo farm bill could possibly pass the Senate, the fate in the House is unclear. Reason: Some 60 or more House Republicans could vote against the measure based on history. That means votes from Democrats would be needed. But getting Democrats to vote for a farm bill will largely be based on how Republicans alter the SNAP/food stamp program. If it takes the House approach, Democrats will not go along; they could go along with a more moderate GOP Senate approach.
- If the 2018 Farm Bill is extended again, another ad hoc ag economic aid package will be pushed.
Malaysia to crack down on UCO fraud amid Western scrutiny... Malaysia is planning stricter measures to combat fraud in the export of used cooking oil (UCO) to address concerns from Western countries that shipments may contain palm oil, Deputy Plantation and Commodities Minister Chan Foong Hin told Reuters. The government aims to strengthen enforcement and ensure traceability throughout the supply chain to uphold industry credibility and Malaysia’s reputation as a responsible exporter. “The center of this issue is the traceability,” Chan said, emphasizing the need for a fully transparent supply chain. He noted that 87% of Malaysian palm oil plantations are sustainably certified under the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil standards. The U.S. and European Union have both expressed concerns about the possibility of virgin palm oil being mixed with UCO, raising sustainability and compliance issues.
Farmland values steady amid weak ag economy and rising credit strain... Agricultural real estate values across the Kansas City Federal Reserve District (an area that includes Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, the northern half of New Mexico and the western third of Missouri) remained largely unchanged through 2024, while credit conditions modestly worsened. Nonirrigated farmland values rose less than 1%, with variations across states and declining sales volumes as high farm loan interest rates and weak crop prices weighed on the market. Despite subdued conditions, ranchland values grew 5%. However, the outlook for farmland values remains cautious, with 40% of lenders expecting a slight decline in 2025.
Credit conditions tightened further, with farm loan repayment rates falling at the fastest pace since 2020, driven by lower farm income and rising demand for non-real estate financing. Farmers reduced capital spending, particularly on equipment, but household expenses remained under pressure. While drought and declining grain prices hit row crop producers hard, cattle operations fared better, maintaining stronger liquidity. Emerging energy practices like solar and carbon sequestration saw increased adoption but limited impact on farmland demand.
Musk faces legal challenges claiming his power is unconstitutional... Elon Musk is facing significant legal scrutiny over his involvement in the Trump administration, with two lawsuits filed by Democratic officials and federal employees alleging his authority in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is unconstitutional. The lawsuits, filed in Washington and Maryland, argue that President Trump has delegated powers to Musk that require Senate confirmation, including cutting federal spending, reducing workforce size and accessing sensitive agency data. Plaintiffs claim Musk’s actions violate the Constitution’s Appointments Clause and invoke the major-questions doctrine — a legal precedent used to limit executive overreach. Judges will determine whether Musk’s role and DOGE’s actions should be overturned. These lawsuits are part of a broader challenge to Musk’s expanding influence in federal governance.
Euro zone economy posts modest growth in final quarter of 2024... The euro zone economy grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024, slightly better than the initially reported flat reading but still marking the weakest performance of the year, the second estimate showed. The bloc’s two largest economies contracted, with Germany’s GDP shrinking 0.2% and France’s 0.1%, while Italy stagnated for a second consecutive quarter. Spain (0.8%) and Portugal (1.5%) posted solid growth.