Livestock producers: Extend soymeal coverage through March... March soybean meal futures dropped below $300.00 today, which has been a longstanding value level. As a result, we advise livestock producers to extend soymeal coverage another month in the cash market through March.
Grains react negatively to USDA’s February crop reports... USDA made no changes to its 2024-25 corn and soybean balance sheets, which disappointed traders looking for reductions to ending stocks for both, resulting in post-report selling. USDA mildly cut its wheat ending stocks forecast, but that market followed corn and soybeans to the downside. USDA cut global carryover projections for corn, soybeans and wheat, though that wasn’t enough to attract buyer interest. Click here for full report details.
USDA raises 2025 cattle, hog price forecasts... USDA raised its 2025 beef production forecast to reflect the resumption of cattle imports from Mexico and data in the Cattle Inventory Report. Beef production is still expected to decline 1.6% from year-ago. The beef export forecast was raised amid the higher supply outlook and continued strong global demand. Beef shipments are still expected to decline 6.9% from last year. These changes resulted in USDA raising its 2025 average cash steer price by $5.00 from last month to $201.00, up $13.88 from last year.
USDA increased its 2025 pork production projection as higher weights more than offset expected slower slaughter in the first quarter. Pork production is projected to rise 2.7% from last year. USDA lowered its pork export forecast due to slower-than-previously expected growth in several key markets. Exports are still expected to increase 2.5% from last year. USDA raised its average cash hog price $1.00 from last month to $64.00, up $2.44 from last year.
USDA cut the egg production forecast due to impacts from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Egg production is now expected to fall 0.7% from last year versus a 1.5% increase projected last month. USDA raised its price forecasts throughout 2025, with a dozen eggs now expected to average $4.44 this year, up $1.50 per dozen from last month and $1.409 higher than 2024.
Powell: No rush to lower interest rates... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank doesn’t need to rush to adjust monetary policy, again signaling officials will be patient before making the next cut to interest rates. Powell said inflation is “somewhat elevated” above the central bank’s 2% goal. However, he noted: “We are in a pretty good place with this economy. Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face.”
“With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” Powell told the Senate Banking committee Tuesday. “We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”
A portion of Powell’s testimony addressed new policies under President Donald Trump and their impacts. “The standard case for free trade... logically still makes sense,” Powell said. But “it’s not the Fed’s job to make or comment on tariff policy... Ours is to try to react to it in a thoughtful, sensible way.” Powell said, “It is tariffs, immigration, fiscal and regulatory policy... Those will all go into a mix and we will try to make sense of it.” Higher inflation “is a possible outcome which will depend very much on specific facts” of what goods are taxed and by how much, he said. “In some cases it does not reach the consumer much, in some cases it does.”
Argentines back Milei’s U.S. trade deal push amid tariff concerns... A majority of Argentines support President Javier Milei’s plan to pursue a free trade agreement with the U.S. despite fears of competition and potential tariffs under Donald Trump’s presidency. According to a January survey by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg, 60% of respondents favor the deal, but only 46% believe local industries can compete with their U.S. counterparts. Nearly 60% fear Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum could severely impact major Argentine companies like Tenaris SA and Aluar Aluminio Argentino SAIC. Milei has suggested he may leave the Mercosur trade bloc to secure the pact with the U.S. if necessary.
ILA nears final approval of six-year contract with port employers... The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is on the verge of finalizing a six-year master contract with port employers covering East and Gulf coast ports. ILA President Harold J. Daggett called it “the greatest ILA contract” and emphasized the complexity of the negotiations, describing the deal as critical for securing the future of ILA workers amid industry changes and automation challenges. If ratified, this agreement will mark the end of a contentious negotiation period, which included a three-day strike in October 2024, with both the ILA and United States Maritime Alliance describing the contract as a “win-win” for job protection and port modernization.
WHO says communication with U.S. on HPAI a ‘challenge’... A World Health Organization spokesperson said communication on highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) had become challenging since President Donald Trump announced a U.S. withdrawal from the United Nations health agency. Asked about communication received by WHO from Washington on the matter, spokesperson Christian Lindmeier said, “Communication is a challenge indeed. The traditional ways of contact have been cut.”
Under WHO rules known as the International Health Regulations, countries have binding obligations to communicate on public health events that have the potential to cross borders. These include advising WHO immediately of a health emergency and measures on trade and travel.
Gulf refiners reject low-quality Mexican crude, pressuring Pemex... U.S. Gulf Coast refiners are turning away crude shipments from Mexico’s Pemex due to excessive water content — up to six times the industry standard, Bloomberg reports. The quality concerns have led to demands for discounts and a shift toward alternative sources from Colombia and Canada.
Pemex’s flagship Maya crude, often arriving with 6% water content, significantly reduces refinery efficiency and increases costs for U.S. refiners. The problem has affected not only U.S. fuel makers but also Pemex’s own Dos Bocas refinery in Mexico, which remains offline due to salty crude that threatens equipment damage.
The crisis highlights mounting challenges for Pemex, which is already struggling to pay $20 billion in supplier debt, further straining its relationship with key buyers.