Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Hog producers: Exit 4th-qtr. hedges... The recent downturn in the CME lean hog index appears to be stalling. As a result, we advise hog producers to exit the 50% fourth-quarter hedges in December $84.00 put options. Our exit was $1.425 for a loss of 65 cents. Maintain the 50% first-quarter hedges in February $84.00 puts for now.
Livestock producers: Extend corn-for-feed coverage through December... December tends to favor bulls in the corn market and we are anticipating a reduction in 2024-25 ending stocks in next week’s Supply & Demand Report. As a result, we advise livestock producers to extend corn-for-feed coverage another two weeks in the cash market through the end of December.
Brazilian soy exporters want changes to deforestation regs... International grain trading firms operating in Brazil will vote next week on changes that could weaken an agreement to not buy soybeans from deforested areas of the Amazon rainforest, The Guardian newspaper reported. Soy traders including ADM, Cargill, Cofco and Bunge signed up for the “Amazon soy moratorium” in the mid-2000s, pledging to stop buying soy from farms in the Brazilian rainforest that were deforested from 2008 onward. The moratorium bars soy purchases from a farm if it includes recently deforested areas. But traders are looking at distinguishing between individual fields, letting growers export from one part of a farm while planting soybean on newly deforested areas nearby, The Guardian reported.
Abiove, which represents those trading firms and all major soy purchasers in Brazil, said it was holding discussions on the moratorium, but did not confirm details of any vote or proposal. In its statement to Reuters, Abiove noted Brazilian state lawmakers are pushing legislation “that significantly harm the signatories of the Soy Moratorium.” Abiove said it defends the soy moratorium while “striving to balance the demands of both farmers and consumers, including updates to the current model to ensure its effectiveness.”
Late-season rain causes quality downgrades in Australia... Heavy rainfall at harvest time has hit Australia’s bumper wheat crop, causing widespread quality downgrades. Aussie farmers are wrapping up an above-average harvest, but rain over the past two weeks has doused crops and more wet weather is forecast. Between 2.5 MMT and 5 MMT of wheat across Australia’s southeastern growing regions have been downgraded to animal feed from milling quality. This represents 8% to 16% of the total Aussie crop. Other crops such as canola and lentils have also been impacted.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences forecasts Australia’s 2024-25 wheat exports at 21.9 MMT, up 2.2 MMT from last year.
Some Russian farmers may favor sunflowers over wheat... Average sunflower prices in the European part of Russia decreased by 550 rubles to 40,625 rubles ($383) per metric ton, according to SovEcon. This marked the first price decline since the end of August, as the sunflower market turned down due to falling oil export prices and reduced demand from processors. SovEcon believes sunflower oil prices have peaked and will continue to decrease amid weakening prices for other vegoils. Russia’s ag ministry proposed changing the calculation of the export duty on sunflower oil starting in February, to be based on the current month’s price index rather than the previous month’s index. The change could lead to a reduction in export tax amid expected weakening sunflower oil prices.
Despite the fall in sunflower prices, SovEcon says the crop remains highly profitable for the Russian farmers, who are likely to try again to expand planted area, primarily at the expense of spring wheat. Winter wheat, which is already seeded, accounts for the bulk of Russia’s production.
French gov’t falls amid no-confidence vote, deepening turmoil... The French government of Michel Barnier was toppled after just three months in power when Marine Le Pen’s far-right party teamed up with a left-wing coalition in a no-confidence vote, throwing the EU’s second-biggest economy deeper into a political crisis that threatens its capacity to legislate and rein in a massive budget deficit.
France now faces a period of deep political uncertainty that is already unnerving investors in French sovereign bonds and stocks.
President Emmanuel Macron must now make a choice. Three sources told Reuters Macron aimed to install a new prime minister swiftly, with one saying he wanted to name a premier before a ceremony to reopen the Notre-Dame Cathedral on Saturday. Macron could alternatively ask Barnier and his ministers to stay on in a caretaker capacity while he takes time to identify a prime minister able to attract sufficient cross-party support to pass legislation. His rivals say the only meaningful way to end the protracted political crisis is for Macron to resign, something he has not indicated he would do.
Bipartisan deal reached on water resources legislation... House and Senate lawmakers have struck a deal on the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA), a biennial measure supporting water conservation, development and navigation projects managed by the Army Corps of Engineers. The agreement follows negotiations between chambers after both passed their versions of the bill. House Transportation and Infrastructure Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) confirmed the deal to Bloomberg, marking a rare instance of bipartisan consensus on Capitol Hill. WRDA typically avoids controversy due to its wide-ranging scope of projects.
OMB extends review of EPA biofuel waiver plan... The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has scheduled two additional meetings as part of its review of the EPA’s proposed partial waiver of Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requirements for cellulosic ethanol. The process now extends into the third week of December, with sessions planned on Dec. 12 with Fuels America and Dec. 17 with the American Biogas Council. A total of seven meetings are slated, underscoring the interest from various stakeholders. The waiver is not expected to lead to significant changes in the RFS requirements.
Trump taps Navarro for senior counselor for trade and manufacturing... Peter Navarro will take on a senior role in Donald Trump’s second administration, serving as senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, a position Trump highlighted as central to his “Buy American, Hire American” agenda during his first term. Navarro recently served four months in prison for refusing to cooperate with the Jan. 6 investigation. In his announcement, Trump called Navarro’s treatment by the “Deep State” unjust and praised his work on trade policy, promising more decisive actions in his next term.
Trump considers DeSantis for Defense Secretary amid Cabinet reshuffles... President-elect Donald Trump may nominate Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as defense secretary, according to the Wall Street Journal. The move would replace Trump’s original pick, Pete Hegseth, whose nomination faced resistance from Republican senators over allegations of sexual assault and inflammatory remarks, which Hegseth denies. Appointing DeSantis would mark a dramatic shift following their rivalry during the Republican primaries and comes amid broader changes to Trump’s early Cabinet picks, including withdrawals for attorney general and DEA head nominees.
Senate Democrats restructure leadership amid GOP takeover... In a closed-door election Tuesday, Senate Democrats elected new leaders, elevating Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) to the No. 3 position as chair of the Steering and Policy Committee, replacing retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.). Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) assumed a newly created No. 4 role as chair of the Strategic Communications Committee. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) was unanimously re-elected as the Democrat’s leader, with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) continuing as party whip. The revamped leadership also includes Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.) as co-vice chairs, Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) as secretary and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) as vice chair of Outreach. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will continue as chair of Outreach.
First Democrat joins GOP-led DOGE Caucus to push for government efficiency... Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) has become the first Democrat to join the Republican-led Congressional Delivering Outstanding Government Efficiency (DOGE) Caucus. This bipartisan move aligns with the caucus’s mission to support President-elect Donald Trump’s new Department of Government Efficiency, co-chaired by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Moskowitz advocates for reducing government inefficiency and reorganizing federal agencies. His proposals include restructuring the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to make FEMA and the Secret Service independent entities reporting directly to the White House. As the first Democrat in the GOP-led caucus, Moskowitz signals bipartisan cooperation on waste reduction and operational reforms.
Upcoming CBO report release schedule... The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has announced key upcoming reports on the federal budget and economic outlook:
- Dec. 12 (1 p.m. CT): Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2025 to 2034. This recurring report will outline 76 policy options to decrease federal spending or increase revenues over the next decade. The Budget Options search tool will be updated accordingly.
- Dec. 18 (1 p.m. CT): CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2027. The report will provide updated projections of the economy, reflecting developments as of Dec. 4.
- Jan. 17, 2025: The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035. This report will include CBO’s full 10-year economic forecast and updated 10-year budget projections. Additional details on the economic forecast will follow in late January or early February.
- Mid-January 2025: The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055. Updated demographic projections, which serve as a foundation for the new baseline, will be released.
Of note: CBO last published its economic and budget projections in June 2024 and demographic projections in January 2024.