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USDA updates indemnity rules for poultry farms amid ongoing HPAI outbreak... USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has introduced an interim final rule updating indemnity requirements for poultry facilities affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Moving forward, farmers must pass a biosecurity audit before restocking their poultry and receiving future indemnity payments, aiming to curb the spread of HPAI through stricter biosecurity measures.
The rule follows data from the 2022-2024 HPAI outbreak showing the effectiveness of strong biosecurity in preventing reinfections, which have cost over $365 million in indemnity payments for repeat cases. APHIS will also require audits for farms in buffer zones and limit indemnity for flocks introduced into active infection areas.
The interim rule takes effect upon publication in the Federal Register, with public comments open until March 3, 2025.
Trump endorses Johnson as speaker ahead of critical House vote... President-elect Donald Trump has offered his “complete and total endorsement” of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) as the House prepares to vote on Johnson’s speakership this Friday. “Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hardworking, religious man. He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN. Mike has my Complete & Total Endorsement. MAGA!” Trump declared on Truth Social. Johnson faces challenges within his party, with some GOP members, including Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), voicing opposition. Johnson’s handling of issues like the end-of-year funding package has fueled intra-party dissatisfaction, complicating his path to securing the speakership. With a slim GOP majority, Johnson can lose no more than one Republican vote, assuming full attendance and participation in the vote.
Trump’s trade threats test Mexican industry... With Donald Trump poised to return to the White House, the Mexican business world is bracing for the potential fallout of renewed trade policies, the New York Times reports. While nearshoring — shifting production closer to the U.S. — has been a boon for Mexico under tariffs on Chinese imports, Trump’s latest proposal threatens to disrupt this trend: a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada. “We are together in this adventure, the United States and Mexico,” said Daniel Córdova, a factory manager in Monterrey, Mexico. “We need each other. A divorce is never cheap.” His sentiment reflects the shared economic dependency between the two nations. However, as the specter of tariffs looms, Córdova’s company, Trane, is considering shifting production to U.S. plants, a move echoed by others in the industry. Uncertainty reigns across sectors, with major players like Honda and Mazda pausing future investments.
Despite these challenges, many see opportunity. “Trump hates China more than he hates Mexico,” remarked Isaac Presburger, whose apparel business thrives on U.S. exports. The sentiment is shared by Baldwin Britton, CEO of Plastiexports, who predicts that nearshoring will only intensify under a continued focus on reducing dependence on Chinese manufacturing.
Mexican officials and industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic, pointing to the intertwined nature of North American trade. Emmanuel Loo, Nuevo León’s economy secretary, noted, “Trump can’t do what he wants to do on China without Mexico.”
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is due for a formal review in 2026. The review, set to begin on July 1, 2026, is designed as a “joint review” involving all three participating countries. During this process, the parties will have the opportunity to: (1) Analyze the agreement’s efficiency; (2) Consider recommendations for improvements; (3) Decide on appropriate adjustments; and (4) Determine the continuance of the USMCA. The U.S. Trade Representative must initiate public consultations by October 2025 and report to Congress by January 2026. Some experts see Trump’s tariff threat to force the Canadian and Mexican governments to agree to an earlier renegotiation of its terms. He could seek to add rules making it harder for Chinese companies to use Mexico as an entry point to the American market.
Still, the stakes are high. Economists warn that sweeping tariffs could slow U.S. growth and drive up consumer prices. As the North American trade pact faces potential renegotiation, businesses like Trane are already adapting, sourcing more components locally to hedge against shifting policies. “We don’t know what decisions he could take,” Córdova admitted. “We need to prepare for different scenarios. There are many variables.”
Key factors economists say could shape agriculture in 2025... According to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, ag economists are eyeing numerous issues that could impact agriculture in 2025, from trade policies and deregulation to evolving farmer strategies and economic uncertainties. Highlights from the latest insights include:
- Economic Recession in Agriculture: A majority of ag economists agree the sector is in or nearing a recession, with 56% confirming the downturn.
- Alternative Land Uses: Interest in programs like CRP and solar energy to diversify farmer income is growing.
- Policy and Trade Shifts: High uncertainty surrounds tariff policies, biofuel regulations and the new administration’s approach to agricultural trade and taxation.
- Regional Income Variability: Economists highlight disparities between regions like the Midwest and struggling southern states.
- Foreign Competition: The depreciating Brazilian real may intensify competition for U.S. agricultural exports.
- Cash Rent: Stable cash rent prices amid declining crop values.
- Farm bill outlook: Uncertainty over federal support programs remains a concern.
Malanga: 2025: Promises and potential perils... Following are highlights of a look ahead at 2025 from Dr. Vince Malanga, president of LaSalle Economics:
Fiscal policy: Malanga expects an extension of the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act, with modifications likely to encourage capital investment. Oil prices are projected to decrease, with fossil fuels prioritized over renewable energy sources like wind. A strong push for deregulation is anticipated, supporting a productivity revival and lowering inflation in 2025.
Monetary policy: The Federal Reserve’s mixed signals make predictions challenging. While rate cuts and quantitative tightening continue, assumptions about tariffs and immigration policy are adding complexity. If inflation trends downward, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may further reduce rates. A neutral rate of 4% to 4.5% is expected under current conditions, potentially dropping to 3% if fiscal policies align as anticipated. This would likely stimulate residential construction.
Politics: The Trump administration is expected to gain support for economic deregulation but will face challenges in streamlining the federal government. Efforts may focus on procurement efficiencies to achieve significant cost savings. While the Inflation Reduction Act will likely be scaled back, tariffs and deportations are anticipated to be more selective. A resolution of conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe and improved relations with China are crucial assumptions for economic stability.
Economic outlook: If these assumptions hold, a temporary economic relapse from fiscal drag could occur. However, with nimble FOMC actions, economic growth may stabilize around 3%, supported by 2% inflation and a 4% ten-year Treasury yield. This growth would benefit corporate profits and aid in reducing the long-term deficit, potentially accelerating deficit reduction trends.
Seed oil debate: health hazard or misplaced concern?... The debate over seed oils has intensified, with figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claiming these oils harm health, while nutrition experts argue they are not inherently problematic. The controversy underscores a larger issue: the American diet and patterns of overconsumption.
Critics like Kennedy assert that seed oils contribute to chronic diseases, involve unhealthy industrial processing, and harm the environment. He describes them as “one of the unhealthiest ingredients we have in foods.”
Nutrition scientists largely disagree, citing decades of research showing seed oils can improve health outcomes when replacing saturated fats. They argue that claims of toxicity and inflammation are unfounded.
The real issue: processed foods and overconsumption. Experts highlight that the problem lies in the context of seed oil consumption:
- Processed foods: Seed oils are prevalent in processed foods.
- Imbalance: Excessive intake of omega-6 fatty acids, without balancing omega-3s, can contribute to dietary issues.
- Overconsumption: High-fat content in oils necessitates moderation.
Health experts advise:
- Cooking at home to control oil intake.
- Reducing processed and fast foods.
- Balancing omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acids.
- Using oils, including seed oils, in moderation.
Bottom line: While the debate continues, most experts agree that seed oils are not inherently harmful when consumed as part of a balanced diet. Focus on overall dietary patterns, not scapegoating single ingredients, is key to better health.