Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Reuters: Biden administration will not finalize 45Z credit... Biden administration officials will not finalize highly anticipated guidelines on new 45Z clean fuel production tax credits before they leave in January, three sources told Reuters. Biofuels companies were hoping to have finalized guidelines for feedstocks eligible for the 45Z credit for the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) before Biden departs the White House on Jan. 20. However, Bloomberg reported: The Biden administration anticipates guidance for clean fuel production tax credits that will enable eligible producers to claim the 45Z credit for 2025, according to a Treasury Department spokesperson.
USDA is expected to issue some guidance on what climate-smart farming techniques may be used to access the credit, but other key items such as life cycle analysis, will remain unfinished and leave the industry without a blueprint to access the credits, the sources said.
The biofuels industry is now pushing lawmakers to extend existing blender tax credits that were set to expire at the end of the year to deal with the uncertainty, Reuters reported, citing multiple interviews with industry executives.
USDA modestly raises farm income forecast but still expected to decline from year-ago... USDA forecasts net farm income at $140.7 billion in calendar year 2024, up $700 million from its September outlook but still down $6.0 billion (4.1%) from last year. When adjusted for inflation, net farm income is expected to decline $9.5 billion (6.3%). Net cash farm income, which includes cash receipts from farming as well as cash farm-related income (including government payments) minus cash expenses, is forecast to decline $1.8 billion from last year to $158.8 billion. When adjusted for inflation, 2024 net cash farm income is forecast to fall $5.7 billion (3.5%).
Cash receipts from the sale of ag commodities are forecast to decline $4.0 billion (0.8%) in nominal terms to $516.9 billion in 2024. Total crop receipts are expected to decrease $25.0 billion (9.2%), led by lower receipts for corn and soybeans. In contrast, total animal/animal product receipts are expected to increase $21.0 billion (8.4%) amid higher receipts for cattle/calves, eggs, milk, broilers and hogs.
Direct government payments are forecast to fall $1.7 billion (13.6%) to $10.6 billion, largely because of lower Dairy Margin Coverage Program payments and lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance in 2024.
Farm sector equity is expected to increase by 5.2% to $3.68 trillion in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to rise 5.1% amid an expected increases in the value of farm real estate assets. Farm sector debt is forecast to rise 4.5%. The debt-to-asset level for the sector is forecast to improve modestly from 12.93% in 2023 to 12.86% this year. Working capital is expected to fall 6.9%.
Boozman stresses farmers’ market losses in Senate floor speech... Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), ranking member of the Senate Ag Committee, addressed Congress on Monday, urging immediate economic assistance for agricultural producers grappling with severe market losses. “It’s clear the pain our farm families are living through,” Boozman stated on the Senate floor. He highlighted the dire situation many farmers face, noting that consecutive years of negative cash flow have left families unable to repay operating loans, secure financing for 2025, or sustain their farms amid extreme market conditions.
Boozman emphasized the need for Congress to act swiftly, providing farmers with the predictability needed to secure financial stability. The uncertainty around whether disaster aid will include relief for “market losses” persists, with President Biden proposing a $100 billion aid package, $24 billion of which is earmarked for USDA to address natural disasters.
Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Miss.) has introduced the bipartisan Farmer Assistance and Revenue Mitigation Act of 2024 (FARM Act), which seeks to safeguard farmers when revenue falls below production costs due to factors beyond their control. “Farmers have been hit with circumstances outside of their control... The FARM Act will bridge the gap, providing relief so that our farmers can continue to do their best — feed the nation,” Kelly said.
Barge operations resume on northern rivers in Brazil... After being suspended for several months due to low water levels, barge operations on two major southern tributaries to the Amazon River resumed operations last week. According to the Association of Port Terminals and Cargo Stations of the Amazon Basin (Amport), operations resumed on the Tapajos River with barges loaded at 50% capacity. On the Madeira River, operations resumed with barges loaded at 100% capacity.
The Tapajos River, which links the Port of Maritituba to ports on the Amazon River, transports grain produced in northern Mato Grosso to the Northern Arc of ports. The Madeira River transports grain produced in western Mato Grosso and the state of Rondonia to Amazon ports.
The ports of the Northern Arc, which include Barcarena (Para), Itaqui (Maranhao), Santarem (Para) and Itacoatiara (Amazonas), among others, accounted for 33.8% of Brazil’s soybean exports and 42.5% of its corn exports in 2023, according to data from Conab.
Farmer sentiment reaches highest level since May 2021... Farmer sentiment jumped again in November as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer climbed 30 points to 145, the highest level since May 2021. The Future Expectations Index increased 37 points to 161, the highest reading since April 2021. The Current Conditions Index rose 18 points to 113.
The survey noted, “Producers’ sentiment improvement carried over into a more optimistic view about making large capital investments in their farming operation. At the same time, however, producer sentiment regarding farmland value changes in their home area over both the next year and the next five years changed little compared to a month earlier. In November, a majority of producers said they expect a less restrictive environmental regulatory environment for agriculture in the upcoming five years, which was a big shift compared to October. With respect to income tax and estate tax rates, the shift was small from October to November 2024. However, when compared to results from November 2020, there was a shift, with far more producers expecting a more favorable tax regime following the 2024 election than the 2020 election. Perhaps the biggest concern expressed by farmers as the transition to a new administration gets underway is the future of agricultural trade, with over two-fifths of survey respondents saying they think a ‘trade war’ is either likely or very likely.”
OMB hosts stakeholder meetings on EPA’s 2024 ethanol mandate waiver... The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has scheduled five meetings to review a proposed partial waiver of cellulosic ethanol mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2024. Upcoming sessions include discussions with the Renewable Gas Coalition on Dec. 10 and Amp Americas on Dec. 11. One meeting with the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers has already taken place, where the group estimated that the waiver could save $310.5 million in compliance costs, citing Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) pricing analysis.
First Circuit weighs national impact of Massachusetts pork law... The First Circuit Court is evaluating the constitutionality of a Massachusetts law that mandates humane confinement standards for pigs whose pork is sold in the state. The law, which bans sales of pork from pigs confined in restrictive stalls, has drawn criticism from pork processors like Triumph Foods LLC. They argue it imposes undue burdens on out-of-state producers, potentially violating the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution. Supporters of the law point to the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision upholding California’s humane-pork law, suggesting the Massachusetts regulation is not discriminatory. The case could have far-reaching consequences for the U.S. pork industry, with concerns over how varying state laws might reshape national production standards.
French gov’t faces critical no-confidence vote on Wednesday... French lawmakers will hold a no-confidence vote Wednesday, with far-right leader Marine Le Pen expected to join forces with a left-wing coalition to topple the government. This could potentially lead to significant political and economic turmoil in France. This situation has arisen from a complex set of circumstances that have unfolded since President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections in June. Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s proposed austerity budget for 2025 has faced widespread criticism and opposition. To push through this contentious budget, Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, allowing him to advance the legislation without a parliamentary vote. This move, however, exposed his government to potential no-confidence motions. The political instability has already begun to impact France’s financial markets. The uncertainty has led to a significant increase in France’s borrowing costs and French assets have been underperforming compared to other European markets.
Forex traders are closely watching the situation, as France is the euro zone’s second largest economy. In the last month, the euro has lost 3% against the U.S. dollar and more than 1% against both the British pound and Swiss franc.
U.S. importers scramble ahead of Trump’s tariffs... An article from The South China Morning Post highlights the scramble among U.S. importers to mitigate the effects of President-elect Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs on Chinese imports. With Trump pledging a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods effective Jan. 20, businesses are front-loading shipments and stockpiling inventory in anticipation of higher costs.
The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest in the Western Hemisphere, is witnessing an unprecedented surge in activity as importers race against the tariff deadline. Executive Director Gene Seroka described the surge: “The port processed 905,206 shipping containers in October, a 25% increase from 2023, surpassing 900,000 units for four consecutive months — a first.” Seroka underscored the broader implications, emphasizing that “more than a million people go to work every day because of what emanates from this port complex.”
However, the consequences extend beyond logistics. The tariffs, part of Trump’s broader reshoring policy, aim to reduce dependency on foreign manufacturing but could destabilize supply chains and increase costs for U.S. consumers. Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, warned, “These policies really do handicap our exporters. So of course, that has implications for jobs at the Port of LA, but it has implications for jobs across the United States.”
Dockworkers union faces technology standoff amid contract talks... The U.S. dockworkers’ union remains deadlocked with employers over the use of semi-automated rail-mounted gantry cranes in contract negotiations. With just six weeks left to finalize a deal before another potential strike, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is resisting technological advances they argue could eliminate jobs, jeopardize national security and threaten the workforce’s future. Despite a tentative 61.5% pay increase agreement over six years under a temporary extension, the union halted discussions last month over automation concerns. Employers insist the technology aims to improve safety and efficiency, not replace workers.
Adding to the complexity, President-elect Donald Trump’s labor secretary nominee, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, has received a rare endorsement from the union, as ILA seeks government backing during this pivotal moment. The deadline for a resolution is Jan. 15, just days before Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration.