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Hogs & Pigs Report shows increasing production... USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the Dec. 1 U.S. hog herd at 75.8 million head, up 1% from last year and 309,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate implied. The breeding herd of 6.0 million head was up slightly from year-ago, but down 1% from the previous quarter. The market hog inventory of 69.8 million head rose 1% from last year, but was down slightly from last quarter.
The fall pig crop at 35.2 million head was up 2% from last year. Sow farrowings totaled 2.96 million head, down slightly from year-ago. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.92 for the Sept.-Nov. period, compared to 11.66 last year.
Cold Storage Report shows sliding inventories… Total red meat supplies at the end of November were down 3% from October and 5% from year-ago. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 7.8 million-lb. (2%) from the previous month but down 16.9 million-lb. (4%) from last year, while frozen pork supplies fell 35.3 million-lb. (8%) from the previous month and 24.6 million-lb. ( 6%) from year-ago. Stocks of pork bellies were up 39% from last month but down 53% from last year.
The five-year average is a 13-million-lb. increase in beef stocks and a 37-million-lb. decline in pork stocks during the month.
Update on ag-related assistance in the short-term spending measure... The short-term continuing resolution passed by Congress late last week will keep the government funded through March 14. It included a one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill and allocates $110 billion for disaster aid (includes $21 billion in ag disaster and $10 billion economic aid for farmers). Dropped from the bill was a provision that would have allowed year-round sales of E15. Also cut was President-elect Donald Trump’s demand that lawmakers remove the debt ceiling limit. Click here for more details.
Paul Neiffer of Farm CPA Report shared an update on agricultural economic aid and disaster assistance tied to the Continuing Resolution passed by Congress on Dec. 20. The webinar link and further updates can be accessed through Farm CPA Report.
What’s ahead of agriculture in 2025... Following are key items that could impact agriculture in the coming year.
- House Ag Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson says he wants to get a new farm bill done in the first quarter of 2025.
- Ethanol producers will again push for year-round E15 after almost getting it in a year-end package this year.
- Extension of expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts, with several provisions very important for the ag sector.
- Implementation of President-elect Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs and whether retaliation or negotiation is the result.
- Deportation of illegal migrants and the impact on U.S. farm labor.
- Trump 2.0 handling of biofuel programs, especially the 45Z program (sustainable aviation fuel)
- Deregulation. Will Trump 2.0 ease the pressure on the U.S. ag sector relative to chemical and other regulations?
- If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is confirmed as HHS Secretary, what impact he will have on food and other policies important to the ag sector.
- Pursuit of free trade agreements (FTAs) to create more market access for agriculture are expected under Trump 2.0.
- Whether the U.S. can get a handle on bird flu. If not, whether the push for a vaccine rises (with trade-related impacts).
Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel program to reshape global palm oil market... Indonesia’s upcoming implementation of the B40 biodiesel program, raising palm oil content in biodiesel from 35% to 40% starting Jan. 1, 2025, is poised to drive up palm oil prices and reshape global market dynamics.
The B40 policy is expected to support palm oil prices in 2025 by increasing domestic demand and tightening global supplies. Experts predict crude palm oil (CPO) futures could exceed 5,000 ringgit per metric ton ($1,130) in early 2025, with potential for a 10% to 15% price rally in early 2024 if the plan proceeds as scheduled.
- Biodiesel allocation: Projected at 15.62 million kiloliters for 2025, up from 13.4 million kiloliters under B35.
- Palm oil use: Energy-related consumption could surge to 13.9 MMT, a significant increase from 11 MMT under B35.
- Export declines: Indonesia’s palm oil exports dropped 10% in November 2024, with further declines expected as B40 preparations intensify.
- Production limits: Slower production growth raises fears that global supply may not keep pace with escalating demand.
Gradual implementation is anticipated, with full adoption potentially delayed until 2026. Industry experts question feasibility due to tight CPO supplies, subsidy pressures, and the need for export levy restructuring. While B40 could cut CO₂ emissions by up to 40 MMT annually, environmentalists warn of deforestation risks, with potential clearing of 1.5 million hectares of forest by 2039 to meet rising demand.
Trump unveils bold second-term agenda... President-elect Donald Trump electrified the crowd at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest in Phoenix, pledging a “common-sense revolution” and teasing sweeping changes for his upcoming term.
- Panama Canal: Trump vowed to reassert U.S. control over the canal, criticizing its fees and China’s growing influence. Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino pushed back, calling sovereignty “non-negotiable.”
- Mount McKinley: He promised to restore the original name of Denali, North America’s tallest mountain.
- Elon Musk: Trump dismissed rumors of delegating power to Musk while praising his contributions, adding, “He can’t be president — he wasn’t born here.”
- Greenland: Reviving his first-term ambition, Trump announced U.S. control of Greenland as “necessary for national security,” reigniting tensions with Denmark.
Of note: His remarks signal a fiery start to his second term with global and domestic implications.
House Democrats signal no support for Speaker Johnson amid GOP unrest... House Democrats are signaling to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) that they won’t come to his rescue again, according to Axios. Johnson faces a razor-thin majority next year (219-215) and growing discontent within his party. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has already pledged to vote against Johnson’s re-election as Speaker on Jan. 3, with several other Republicans undecided. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told Democrats on Friday that relations with Johnson have deteriorated. He criticized Johnson’s reversal on last week’s funding deal and lack of communication. House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) echoed this sentiment, stating he wouldn’t encourage Democrats to support Johnson as they did earlier this year.