Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... Each year is unique, presenting a new set of circumstances that shape agriculture and our lives. As 2024 comes to a close, it’s time to look back on the events, stories and people that were most influential over the past year. This issue includes the events, stories and people we believe had the most impact on agriculture and your farming operations in 2024. We also have outlooks for the ag markets we cover. This is your final issue of Pro Farmer for 2024. Click here to access this week’s newsletter.
GOP unveils stopgap funding plan, faces uncertain Democratic support... House Republicans reportedly have proposed a funding package to avert a government shutdown, requiring Democratic backing to pass. The plan would extend funding until March 14, includes a one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill and allocate $110 billion for disaster aid ($21 billion in ag disaster and $10 billion farmer aid). Notably, it excludes a debt limit measure supported by President-elect Donald Trump.
With timing quickly winding down ahead of the midnight ET shutdown deadline, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) presented the package as one of two options to GOP members, who voted to move forward. Democrats, awaiting full details, have not committed support. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) consulted with swing-district lawmakers to gauge pressure for a bipartisan deal.
It’s unclear when today’s vote will occur. The bill will be considered under suspension of the rules, which will require a two-thirds majority for passage.
Go to www.profarmer.com for updates.
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral... USDA estimated there were 11.982 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of Dec. 1, down 34,000 head (0.3%) from year-ago. Placements declined 3.7%, while marketings dropped 1.5% from November 2023.
| Cattle on Feed Report | USDA (% of year-ago) | Average Estimate (% of year-ago) |
| On Feed on Dec. 1 | 99.7 | 99.7 |
| Placements in November | 96.3 | 94.9 |
| Marketings in November | 98.5 | 98.2 |
Placements declined from year-ago in each of the lower four weight categories, with lightweights (under 600 lbs.) down 6.6%, 6-weights down 4.5%, 7-weights down 1.3% and 8-weights down 4.8%. Heavyweight (1,000-plus lbs.) placements were equal to November 2023, while 9-weights increased 3.6%, though those two categories accounted for only 230,000 head of the 1.796 million head placed in feedlots last month.
On a state-by-state basis, placements declined 20,000 head in Colorado, 45,000 head in Texas and 39,000 head in “other states,” while they increased 15,000 head in Kansas and 20,000 head in Nebraska.
This data is fully neutral and should have virtually no market impact.
Hog herd expected to be inch up from year-ago... Analysts expect USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report on Monday afternoon to show the U.S. hog herd up 0.1% from year-ago at 75.536 million head. The breeding herd inventory is anticipated to be about equal to last year, while market hog numbers are seen up 0.1%. After fourth-quarter slaughter ran under levels implied by the September H&P Report, some downward revisions are expected to past data.
| Hogs & Pigs Report Expectations | Average estimate (% of year-ago) | Range of estimates (% of year-ago) |
| All hogs on Dec. 1 | 100.1 | 99.4 - 100.9 |
| Kept for breeding | 100.0 | 98.5 - 100.7 |
| Kept for marketing | 100.1 | 99.4 - 101.2 |
| Market hog inventory | 100.5 | 99.6 - 101.4 |
| under 50 lbs. | 100.3 | 99.8 - 100.8 |
| 50 lbs.-119 lbs. | 99.4 | 98.3 - 100.3 |
| 120 lbs.-179 lbs. | 99.0 | 97.9 - 100.1 |
| Over 180 lbs. | ||
| Pig crop (Sept.-Nov.) | 100.6 | 100.0 - 101.2 |
| Pigs per litter (Sept.-Nov.) | 100.7 | 100.1 - 101.1 |
| Farrowings (Sept.-Nov.) | 99.9 | 99.6 - 100.3 |
| Farrowing intentions (Dec.-Feb.) | 100.1 | 99.8 - 100.3 |
| Farrowing intentions (March-May) | 100.0 | 99.0 – 101.0 |
USDA made substantial revisions to its 2025 food inflation forecast... USDA maintained its 2024 food price inflation forecast at 2.3% for all foods, with grocery prices rising 1.2% and restaurant prices increasing 4.1%. For 2025, expected food price inflation was cut to 1.9% (2.5% last month). Grocery prices are projected to rise 0.8% (down from 1.6%) and restaurant costs are forecast to climb 3.5% (up from 3.1%).
Beef prices are projected to rise 3.8% next year, down from an expected 5.5% jump this year. Pork prices are forecast to be steady next year, down from a 1.4% increase this year.
USDA noted retail egg prices increased 7.8% in November, influenced by the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). USDA forecasts egg prices will rise 7.7% this year, with another 11.4% jump projected for 2025, up sharply from an expected 3.4% rise previously.
Prices for farm-level eggs rose by 54.6% in November amid the HPAI outbreak. Wholesale prices for large eggs reached $5.57 per dozen in the Midwest on Wednesday, up 150% from a year ago and topping the previous record of $5.46 from December 2022.
Big jump in Russia’s wheat export tax... Russia’s tax on wheat exports will jump to 4,768.7 rubles ($46.30) per metric ton for Dec. 25-Jan. 12, up from 4,136.5 rubles ($40.16) the previous week. That’s below the recent high of 4,871.5 rubles ($47.29), but the export tax has surged 426% since mid-September, as Russia’s ag ministry tries to slow shipments.
FDA redefines ‘healthy’ food label: Stricter standards for added sugars and fats... FDA has introduced a new definition for “healthy” food, removing the label from items like sugary yogurts, cereals and fruit cups. Foods such as salmon, avocados and olive oil now qualify, while those with excessive added sugars or fats face stricter limits. The updated guidelines, designed to curb chronic disease and set to take effect in 2028, come as President-elect Trump prepares to install Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as head of the Department of Health and Human Services. Kennedy has vowed to reform food labeling and tackle unhealthy additives in processed foods.
PCE prices rise less than expected... The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.1% in November, down from 0.20% in October. On an annual basis, PCE increased 2.4%, up from a 2.3% rise the previous month. Core PCE, minus food and energy costs, rose 0.1% from the previous month and 2.8% over the past 12 months.
Consumer sentiment rises to eight-month high in December... U.S. consumer sentiment rose for a fifth straight month and reached the highest level since April 2024, according to the University Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. Consumer sentiment rose 3.1% from November and 6.2% from year-ago. The index of current conditions surged 17.5% on a monthly basis and rose 2.5% from year-ago. The index of consumer expectations declined 4.7% from November but jumped 8.8% from last year.
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, “Broadly speaking, consumers believe that the economy has improved considerably as inflation has slowed, but they do not feel that they are thriving; sentiment is currently about midway between the all-time low reached in June 2022 and pre-pandemic readings.”
Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 2.6% in November to 2.8% this month, the first monthly increase since May. Long-run inflation expectations declined from 3.2% last month to 3.0%.