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Still waiting on text of short-term spending resolution... Text of the continuing resolution to keep the government funded past expiration of the current measure at midnight Friday hasn’t been released yet. We are expecting it to come later today. It will contain ag provisions, including a one-year extension of 2018 Farm Bill, around $10 billion in farmer economic aid, $21 billion ag disaster funding for 2023 and 2024, which is part of the $100.4 billion to help the hurricane-stricken Southeast and year-round E15 sales. Another new provision said to be in the bill is a one-year delay of new reporting requirements for companies operating in the U.S. to report information on their “beneficial ownership” — the individuals who ultimately own or control them – to the Treasury Department. Expiring and expired farm bill programs will be extended for one year, while replacement benefits for households who had their Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits stolen would be extended for four years.
We hope to have final details in “First Thing Today” on Wednesday morning.
SovEcon cuts Russian wheat crop forecast amid ‘worst conditions in decades’... Black Sea consulting firm SovEcon cut its 2025 wheat production forecast by 3 MMT tot 78.7 MMT, which would be the smallest since 2021 and well below the five-year average of 88.2 MMT. SovEcon citing poor crop conditions, which it classified as “the worst in decades” for the reduction. It forecasts total wheat plantings at 28.2 million hectares, down 300,000 hectares from last year and 1.6 million hectares less than two years ago.
SovEcon noted, “The global wheat supply and demand balance sheet remains tight. We believe these factors are not yet priced in by the market.”
Ukraine’s winter crops mostly favorable... Only about 3% of Ukrainian winter crops are in unsatisfactory condition while 77% were rated as good at Dec. 10, the APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said, citing state weather forecasters. The most problematic crops were in the eastern Kharkiv region, as well as the southern Kherson and central Khmelnytskyi regions, forecasters said.
Biden’s final regulatory push; Trump’s potential policy shifts ahead... Key agricultural and environmental regulations face an uncertain future as administration change looms. The Biden administration has released its final regulatory agenda, outlining plans for various policy actions in the coming months. However, with the Trump administration set to take office soon, many of these regulations face an uncertain future.
Several agricultural regulations are in the pipeline, particularly focusing on livestock markets and competitiveness:
- Fair and Competitive Livestock and Poultry Markets: USDA aims to finalize this rule by January 2025, clarifying its position on protecting producer welfare and advancing fair trade practices.
- Poultry Grower Payment Systems: Targeting problematic practices in poultry grower payment systems, this rule is also slated for January 2025 finalization.
- Price Discovery in Fed Cattle Markets: Currently in the comment period, the proposed rulemaking is targeted for September, leaving the final decision to the Trump administration.
- Cell-Cultured Meat Labeling: A proposed rule for labeling meat and poultry products made using cell-culture technology is expected soon, with final rulemaking scheduled for November 2025.
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) levels and program changes are notable environmental regulations on the agenda:
- RFS: EPA plans to finalize applicable volumes and percentage standards for various biofuels beginning in 2026.
- RFS: Both the proposed rule (March 2025) and final rule (December 2025) will be handled by the Trump administration, potentially signaling shifts in biofuel policy.
- USDA’s Climate-Smart Agriculture Interim Rule Under Review at OMB. USDA’s interim final rule on technical guidelines for climate-smart agriculture crops used as biofuel feedstocks is listed under long-term actions, meaning no regulatory action was initially expected within 12 months. However, as it is under review at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), USDA may advance it within that timeframe, especially with the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z) taking effect on Jan. 1. Notably, Treasury’s regulatory agenda omits 45Z, despite including credits for clean electricity investment (45Y), production (48E), and clean hydrogen production (45V). We have previously reported that before the Biden administration departs prior to the Jan. 20 Trump inauguration, some guidelines could be released with the incoming Trump administration making final rules and regulations on 45Z and other programs.
The incoming Trump administration will have several options for dealing with these proposed regulations:
- Finalize the regulations as proposed by the Biden administration.
- Modify the proposals before finalization.
- Delay or abandon the regulatory actions entirely.
Additionally, regulations finalized by the Biden administration since mid-August 2024 may be vulnerable to the Congressional Review Act (CRA), allowing the new Congress to potentially overturn these rules.
Of note: As the transition to Trump 2.0 approaches, stakeholders in agriculture and environmental sectors should prepare for potential policy shifts and regulatory changes under the new administration.
CEOs feeling a lot more upbeat about the new year... CEOs of the world’s largest companies are entering 2025 with their most optimistic outlook in years, largely driven by President-elect Donald Trump’s victory. According to a Wall Street Journal report citing a survey by advisory firm Teneo, 77% of public-company CEOs expect the global economy to improve in the first half of next year, a notable jump from 45% last year.
Teneo CEO Paul Keary said, “Trump’s win boosted optimism among executives in both the U.S. and overseas.” The upbeat mood is especially pronounced among CEOs of companies earning over $10 billion annually — 50% of whom foresee economic improvement, up from just 16% in 2023.
High-profile leaders like Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Sam Altman have already contributed $1 million each to Trump’s inaugural fund, signaling efforts to build ties with the incoming administration. However, tariff threats, particularly a proposed 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico, remain a point of contention for larger firms.
Notably:
• 80% of CEOs predict a pickup in mergers and acquisitions in 2025.
• Nearly 60% foresee central banks raising interest rates in early 2025, despite market expectations of Fed rate cuts.
• 80% anticipate rising inflation in their regions.
Bottom line: As Trump prepares for his return to the White House, global executives appear poised for growth but remain cautious about potential trade disruptions and regulatory hurdles.
Retiring lawmakers decry end of permitting reform effort... An effort to overhaul the federal permitting process collapsed as congressional leaders failed to include it in the stopgap funding bill, marking the end of a contentious three-year fight. The collapse stemmed from partisan disagreements on fossil fuel projects and renewable energy transmission lines. Senate Energy Chair Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), who championed the reforms, criticized Congress for missing a “historic” opportunity. Manchin, set to retire, warned that the incoming administration will face significant hurdles, stating that reform cannot be achieved through executive action alone.
The stalemate reflects deep divides, with Democrats opposing changes to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Republicans rejecting provisions aimed at expanding clean energy infrastructure. Senate Environment Chair Thomas Carper (D-Del.), also retiring, echoed frustrations, lamenting the missed chance to streamline project timelines.
Of note: Republicans are expected to revisit the issue in the next Congress, prioritizing shorter permitting timelines.