Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
White House clarifies tariffs on China, higher than Trump originally indicated... The White House clarified today that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will be 145%, not the 125% rate President Donald Trump had indicated Wednesday. Trump said his tariffs may cause “transition problems” but expressed confidence in his plan. “There’ll be a transition cost, and transition problems, but in the end it’s going to be a beautiful thing,” Trump said Thursday during a Cabinet meeting. “We’re in very good shape.” Trump voiced optimism that China would eventually come to the negotiating table.
He also indicated deals with other countries are “very close.” Still, Trump continued to emphasize he would reimpose substantial “reciprocal” tariffs if satisfactory deals weren’t struck over the next three months, and indicated he would look to remove non-tariff barriers even with countries that had trade surpluses.
Corn and soybeans extend gains following USDA’s reports... USDA cut U.S. ending stocks more than anticipated, especially for corn, which triggered an extension of gains posted ahead of the data. Wheat futures built on their losses as the ending stocks forecast was higher than anticipated. Click here for full report details.
USDA’s livestock/meat S&D adjustments... Beef: USDA raised its beef production forecast, though output is still expected to decline 1.1% from last year. USDA lowered beef exports based on recent trade data, as well as newly imposed tariffs and non-tariff barriers faced by U.S. beef exports to China. Beef exports are now projected to decline 10.6%. Despite these changes, USDA raised its average cash steer price by $6.00 to a record $206.00 to reflect reported data through the first quarter and expected robust demand for the remainder of the year.
Pork: USDA lowered its pork production forecast to reflect lower hog numbers in the March 27 Hogs & Pigs Report. Pork production is still forecast to increase 1.0% from last year. It lowered pork exports due to the latest trade data, increased tariff rates for U.S. pork shipments to China and price competition from other major exporting countries. Pork exports are now expected to decline 2.2% from year-ago. USDA lowered its average cash hog price by $2.00 to $61.00, down 56 cents from last year.
U.S. and Panama seal Canal defense pact amid China tensions... Washington and Panama City have finalized a landmark defense and security agreement to reinforce control over the Panama Canal, as strategic competition with China intensifies across Latin America. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth underscored the canal’s role in U.S. national security, calling it a “linchpin” in deterring China’s regional expansion.
Key provisions of the agreement:
- Enhanced Military Cooperation: Joint operations and training to secure canal operations.
- Cybersecurity Measures: Collaboration on digital infrastructure and threat detection.
- Engineering Support: U.S. assistance in maintaining and upgrading canal-related facilities.
- Sovereignty Assurance: The agreement explicitly reaffirms Panama’s sovereign control over the canal.
Strategic access & cost-sharing:
- “First and Free” U.S. Access: Panama will grant priority, toll-free passage to U.S. naval vessels.
- Cost-Neutral Transit: A new cost-sharing model aims to offset expenses for U.S. warship operations.
The pact follows Panama’s formal withdrawal from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, marking a significant pivot toward U.S. alignment. Recent moves to sell Chinese-operated canal-adjacent ports to a consortium including BlackRock Inc. have also shifted key infrastructure control away from Beijing’s hands.
Hegseth warned of surveillance risks tied to Chinese port operations near the canal. Although Panama refuted claims that China controls canal operations directly, the U.S. remains wary of foreign influence in this strategic chokepoint.
This agreement is part of a wider U.S. push to curb China’s geopolitical foothold in the Western Hemisphere — mirroring defense pacts, increased deployments and infrastructure partnerships elsewhere in the region.
Winter wheat drought footprint shrinks but bigger than year-ago... As of April 8, the Drought Monitor showed 58% of the U.S. was covered by abnormal dryness/drought, down eight percentage points from the previous week. USDA estimated 32% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was experiencing D1-D4 drought conditions, down five points from last week but 14 points more than last year at this time. Abnormal dryness (D0) covered another 16% of winter wheat areas, down eight points from the previous week and 18 points from last year.
In HRW areas, dryness/drought covered 84% of Kansas (no D3 or D4), 52% of Colorado (1% D3, no D4), 53% of Oklahoma (no D3 or D4), 82% of Texas (29% D3 or D4), 97% of Nebraska (6% D3, no D4), 100% of South Dakota (3% D3, no D4) and 65% of Montana (2% D3, no D4).
In SRW areas, dryness/drought covered 37% of Missouri (no D3 or D4), 36% of Illinois (no D3 or D4), 15% of Indiana (no D3 or D4), 0% of Ohio (no D3 or D4), 29% of Michigan (no D3 or D4), 0% of Kentucky (no D3 or D4) and 4% of Tennessee (no D3 or D4).
The Seasonal Drought Outlook signals drought conditions are likely to develop or persist across much of HRW areas through June. SRW production areas faced with dryness/drought are likely to see those conditions improve or be removed.
Click here to view related maps.
ENSO-neutral returns, expected to persist through summer... The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says ENSO-neutral conditions returned, with below-average sea surface temperatures weakening in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. CPC says there are high odds – “well over 50%” – ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through August-October.
U.S. consumer inflation declines more than expected in March... The U.S. consumer price index declined 0.1% on a monthly basis and 2.4% annually during March. This marked the first monthly decline in consumer prices since May 2020 and the smallest annual gain since September. Core inflation eased to a 0.1% gain from the previous month and 2.8% from year-ago.
Food prices increased 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.0% annually in March. Food at home (grocery store) prices rose 2.4%, while food away from home (restaurant) costs increased 3.8%. Egg prices rose 60% from year-ago at the grocery store. The average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs reached a record $6.23, up from $5.90 in February.
Why can’t lawmakers ink farm bill with a true safety net for trade wars, other problems?... That is the gist of a key question farmers have been asking Pro Farmer Washington consultant Jim Wiesemeyer during his speeches throughout farm country. GOP farm-state lawmakers privately worry about Trump’s tariffs and another prolonged trade war with China. Yet they can’t get a big boost in reference prices legislated. Democratic farm-state lawmakers have quickly used farmer concerns about long-term trade policy in criticizing Trump’s tariff positions and flip-flops. Yet, those same Democratic farm-state lawmakers cannot come to agreement with their GOP counterparts in getting a new farm bill passed.
U.S. backs out of global shipping carbon talks, warns of retaliation... The U.S. has withdrawn from international negotiations on placing a carbon charge on shipping emissions, warning it will take reciprocal action if American-flagged vessels are penalized under any future global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing regime. The talks, currently underway at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London, aim to finalize a carbon pricing mechanism for the maritime sector — part of a broader effort to bring shipping in line with global climate goals. The U.S. stated that it “rejects any and all efforts to impose economic measures against its ships based on greenhouse gas emissions or fuel choice.”
Despite the U.S. pushback, negotiations appear to be progressing. “There are no indications from within the room that the U.S.statement has had a significant impact,” said Jesse Fahnestock of the Global Maritime Forum, which includes stakeholders like BP Plc.
If GHG-cutting amendments to MARPOL Annex VI are passed, the U.S. could theoretically withdraw from the annex or the broader treaty, according to reports. The U.S. government has signaled potential economic countermeasures to “offset any fees charged to U.S. ships and compensate the American people for any other economic harm” stemming from the proposed measures.
IMO Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez confirmed this week that a compromise proposal is in the works and reiterated that “there will be a price on emissions.” The organization set a target in 2023 for the global shipping sector to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.
Keystone declares force majeure after oil spill... Keystone Pipeline’s owner, South Bow Corp., has declared force majeure on scheduled crude oil shipments following a spill that released approximately 3,500 barrels of oil into a North Dakota field. The disruption threatens to ripple across fuel markets, particularly in the Midwest. According to a notice, the company informed customers that it might be unable to fulfill its delivery obligations dating back to 5 p.m. local time on Tuesday. Excavation efforts to pinpoint the leak were expected to begin as early as Wednesday evening.
Midwestern fuel markets may feel the brunt of the disruption, according to analysts. The region’s gasoline inventories have fallen for four straight weeks, reaching their lowest levels since late January. Diesel supplies have been sliding for six weeks and are now at their lowest since December, per new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Bottom line: A prolonged shutdown could heighten upward pressure on retail gasoline and diesel prices in the Midwest, where refineries rely heavily on Canadian crude.