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Ukraine, Russia agree to Black Sea, energy infrastructure truce... The U.S. reached separate deals on Tuesday with Ukraine and Russia on a truce in the Black Sea and a pause in attacks on energy facilities. The deal with Russia involves a commitment from Washington to help seek the lifting of international sanctions on Russian agriculture and fertilizer exports. Moscow said the agreement would require sanctions relief including restoring links between Russia’s agricultural export bank and the SWIFT international payments system. That and other steps could require agreement from European countries.
Both countries said they would rely on the U.S. to enforce the deals.
USDA lowers price forecast despite sharply higher egg price outlook... USDA forecasts prices for all food will rise 3.2% this year, down from the expected 3.4% increase last month. The monthly price decrease was driven by food-at-home (grocery) prices, which are anticipated to rise 2.7%, down from the 3.3% gain forecast last month. Food-away-from-home (restaurant) prices are projected to increase 3.7%, up from 3.4% previously.
USDA projects a 57.6% surge in egg prices, up sharply from the 41.1% jump projected last month, due to impacts from the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that has sharply reduced layer flocks and egg production. However, the forecast range is huge at 31.1% to 91.5% amid extreme supply uncertainty tied to the HPAI situation.
USDA projects price increases of 5.2% for beef/veal (up from 3.2% last month) and 1.5% for pork (up from 1.2%) this year. Poultry prices are expected to decline 0.4% (down from no change) from year-ago.
Cold Storage Report: Beef stocks drop much more than average during February... USDA’s Cold Storage Report showed 428.1 million lbs. of beef in frozen storage at the end of February, down 27.0 million lbs. from January versus the five-year average decline of 10.6 million pounds. Beef inventories declined 9.9 million lbs. (2.3%) from February 2024 and 69.2 million lbs. (13.9%) from the five-year average.
Pork stocks totaled 423.1 million lbs., up 15.9 million lbs. from January, slightly less than the five-year average increase of 17.9 million lbs. for the month. Pork stocks declined 35.5 million lbs. (7.7%) from year-ago and 94.8 million lbs. (18.3%) from the five-year average.
Total poultry inventories stood at 1.087 billion lbs., including a February record 254.6 million lbs. of chicken breast meat. Chicken breast stocks climbed 5.8 million lbs. from January and 20.9 million lbs. from year-a
Indonesia prepared to export eggs to United States... Indonesia is ready to export up to 1.6 million eggs per month to the U.S. as it has surplus production, the country’s ag ministry spokesperson said. “Stock shortage in other countries can be an opportunity for us to export. One of the export plans is to the U.S.,” the official said.
Egg supply recovery underway despite recent setbacks... USDA’s March 21 Chickens and Eggs Report showed continued struggles in egg production due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), with only 285.1 million table egg layers as of March 1 — down significantly from both the previous month and last year. Southern Ag Today noted this marked the lowest March count since 2011. However, pullet numbers (young hens entering production) rose 5.5% year-over-year, signaling rebuilding efforts amid strong demand and high prices. Additional signs of recovery include increased incubator activity and more eggs per 100 layers. Egg prices have dropped sharply, from $8.51 to $3.96 per dozen in March, likely driven by reduced consumer demand at peak prices rather than increased supply. Overall, while current supplies are tight, production is ramping up, and prices may continue to ease if HPAI pressures decline, the Southern Ag Today item concludes.
Canada’s small farms offer clues for U.S. egg industry... With egg prices soaring in the U.S. due to highly pathogenic avian influenza wiping out tens of millions of hens, USDA is studying how other countries manage their egg supply — especially neighboring Canada, where eggs remain affordable and plentiful. Unlike the U.S., Canada’s egg farms are smaller and more insulated from HPAI outbreaks thanks to colder climates, tighter biosecurity and fewer free-range operations. While American agribusiness has prioritized scale and efficiency, this has also made the system more vulnerable to disruptions. Canada’s supply management system guarantees farmers stable income, reducing pressure to expand, whereas U.S. producers must grow to stay competitive. As Easter demand looms, the U.S. is turning to increased egg imports to ease the shortage.
U.S. consumer confidence plunges on negative expectations about the future... U.S. consumer confidence dropped for a fourth straight month in March, with households the most pessimistic about the future in 12 years, a survey from the Conference Board showed.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index plunged 7.2 points to 92.9 this month. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 3.6 points to 134.5.
The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, dropped 9.6 points to 65.2 – the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The portion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months held steady at a nine-month high.
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 6.2%, the highest since April 2023, from 5.8% last month.
India requires weekly wheat inventory declarations... India has directed traders, wholesalers, retailers and processors to declare their wheat inventories every Friday, starting April 1. This is an attempt “to manage overall food security and to prevent unscrupulous speculation.”
USITC launches timeline for review of tomato suspension agreement with Mexico... The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) announced the timeline for its five-year review of the Tomato Suspension Agreement (TSA) with Mexico. TSA, designed to prevent harm to the U.S. tomato industry by ensuring Mexican producers adhere to minimum pricing standards, is under review to determine if ending the suspended investigation would harm U.S. interests. USITC deemed the review “extraordinarily complicated” and invoked its authority to extend the process by up to 90 days. A hearing is scheduled for Aug. 14, with written submissions due by Aug. 26 and final comments by Sept. 26.