Evening Report | August 9, 2024

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Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... Funds showed no willingness to actively cover short positions ahead of USDA’s Aug. 12 Crop Production Report, which will feature the first survey-based corn and soybean crop estimates. Pre-report expectations point to record yields for both crops. After below-normal temps and above-average rainfall across the Corn Belt during July, crop conditions ratings were strong to start August, fueling the record yield expectations. While crop prospects are strong, export demand remains a concern, with global end-users content to be passive buyers as prices continue to fall. It’s going to take a bullish surprise in the Aug. 12 reports, a surge in export demand or an unknown factor for grain markets to encourage funds to cover enough short positions to put in market bottoms. With Minnesota Governor Tim Walz tabbed as Kamala Harris’ running mate, we take a look at his stance on ag issues, taxes and other key factors for the rural community. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.

First corn, soybean crop estimates coming Aug. 12... USDA’s Crop Production Report next Monday will feature the first survey-based corn and soybean crop estimates, based primarily off farmer responses and satellite imagery, along with the initial cotton crop estimate and updated wheat production. NASS will also incorporate FSA certified acreage data into its crop estimates. While USDA will also update old- and new-crop usage forecasts, the production estimates will be the focal point. The following pre-report expectations are based on Reuters surveys; Bloomberg for cotton.

Argentine soy worker strike may be extended... An ongoing oilseed workers strike in Argentina could extend beyond Friday, as wage negotiations with firms continue to stall, Reuters reported. At least 36 ships loaded with grains remained delayed on Friday near the key agricultural port of Rosario, according to an industry spokesperson and unions. The strike mainly affects terminals located north of Rosario along the Parana River, where more than 80% of Argentina’s agricultural exports are shipped.

More Colorado H5N1 outbreaks, Michigan reports human case... Colorado identified 10 new outbreaks of H5N1 in dairy herds through mandatory testing of milk samples, as part of efforts to control the spread of the virus in the dairy and poultry industries. Colorado has confirmed the virus in 63 dairy herds, accounting for one-third of the 190 outbreaks across 13 states.

The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services said it had identified a human case of H5N1. The source of the person’s exposure is still under investigation.

Measure to tighten regs on ‘de minimis’ imports... A bipartisan proposal aims to tighten regulations on imports that currently bypass scrutiny through the “de minimis” system, which allows goods valued under $800 to enter the U.S. tariff-free with minimal oversight. The legislation, introduced by Democratic Senators Ron Wyden, Sherrod Brown, and Bob Casey, along with Republican Senators Cynthia Lummis and Susan Collins, seeks to prohibit the use of de minimis for “import sensitive” goods, such as most apparel and textiles. This proposal specifically targets Chinese fast-fashion brands like Shein and online marketplace Temu and aims to curb the influx of packages containing illicit drugs.

If passed, the bill would require U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to collect more data on low-cost shipments and impose a $2 fee per shipment using de minimis. The U.S. textile industry’s trade group supports the legislation, arguing it would help “level the playing field” for domestic manufacturers. Meanwhile, Shein has expressed support for reforming the de minimis system but opposes eliminating it entirely.

Bottom line: This legislation represents a significant effort to increase oversight of low-cost imports and protect domestic industries from unfair competition.

Economists expect quarter-point Fed rate cut... A majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg see only a quarter-point decrease in interest rates coming in September — a finding that’s at odds with calls from some large Wall Street banks for a larger cut at the next meeting. Nearly 80% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the Federal Reserve will trim rates to a range of 5.00% to 5.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, with most of the rest predicting a larger reduction. The median forecast shows just 10% odds for a rare move to adjust rates prior to the scheduled gathering.