Evening Report | August 5, 2024

Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.

Corn conditions decline as expected... USDA rated 67% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, down one percentage point from last week as analysts expected. The “poor” to “very poor” rating increased one point to 10%.

USDA reported 88% of the crop was silking (equal to the five-year average), 46% was in dough stage (38%) and 7% was dented (5%).

Soybean conditions unexpectedly improve... USDA rated the soybean crop 68% “good” to “excellent,” up one point from last week, whereas analysts expected a one-point decline. The “poor” to “very poor” rating held at 8%.

USDA reported 86% of the crop was blooming (84% average) and 59% was setting pods (56%).

Cotton conditions deteriorate on Texas decline... USDA rated 45% of the cotton crop as “good” to “excellent,” down four percentage points from last week. The “poor” to “very poor” rating increased five points to 27%. The Texas crop was rated 32% “good” to “excellent” and 40% “poor” to “very poor,” down eight points in the top two categories and up nine points in the bottom two.

USDA reported 91% of the crop was squaring (equal to the five-year average), 60% was setting bolls (59%) and 8% had bolls opening (7%).

Spring wheat conditions unchanged... USDA rated 74% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week. Analysts expected a one-point decline. The “poor” to “very poor” rating held at 4%, though there was a one-point increase in the bottom category.

USDA reported 97% of the spring wheat crop was headed (99% average) and 6% was harvested (10%). Harvest stood at 1% in top producer North Dakota (4% average).

Winter wheat harvest into the home stretch... USDA reported winter wheat harvest reached 88%, two points ahead of average for early August. The bulk of harvest activity left is in the PNW.

Argentine grain exports surge in July... Argentine exports of grains and byproducts generated revenues of $2.616 billion in July, up 32.3% compared to June and 35.8% above year-ago, according to data from the Chamber of the Oilseed Industry of the Argentine Republic (Ciara) and the Cereal Exporters Center (CEC). In the first seven months of the year, revenues totaled $13.640 billion, up 5.2% from the same period last year. Soybean meal accounted for 12% of the total exported, followed by corn (11%) and soybean oil (6.9%).

According to the organizations, the performance partly reflects the adoption of the reference value called the “export dollar,” in force since December 2023. But Argentina also has a lot more product to export as production sharply rebounded from the historic drought in 2023.

Fed’s Goolsbee downplays recession concerns... Federal Reserve policymakers need to carefully monitor changes in the U.S. economy to avoid being too restrictive with interest rates but right now signs do not point to a recession despite weaker-than-expected jobs data, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee said.

“You only want to be that restrictive if you think there’s fear of overheating,” Goolsbee told CNBC. “These data, to me, do not look like overheating... as you see jobs numbers come in weaker than expected but not looking yet like recession, I do think you want to be forward-looking at where the economy is headed for making the decisions.”

Goolsbee also cautioned against taking too much signal from a global stock market selloff amid fears the Fed has waited too long to begin cutting interest rates. He reiterated the Fed’s two mandates in setting monetary policy are employment and price stability.