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Preliminary Route Report with Brent Judisch, western Tour consultant
What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?
Iowa: Districts 4 & 1—Harrison, Monona, Woodbury, Plymouth
Corn yield range: 174 to 242 bu. per acre
Corn yield average: 207 bu. per acre
Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square: 0 to 2124
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square: 967
Please share a few (one to three) comments from your route:
We have seen a lot of southern rust, consistently almost in every field. Nearly every sample of corn had either an earworm or western soybean cutworm. Soil moisture looks good, no cracks in the ground or evidence of lacking moisture. The soybeans have been healthy—we’ve not seen any white mold, sudden death or aphids in soybeans—but haven’t seen the pod counts we should be seeing. This area received more than 20 inches of rain in May and June, which is likely a factor. It has been an absolute ideal day to sample crops.
Preliminary Route Report with Brian Grete, eastern Tour leader
What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?
Illinois: Districts 4 & 1—Marshall, Peoria, Stark, Henry and Whiteside
Corn yield range: 142.8 to 260.5 bu. per acre
Corn yield average: 204.3 bu. per acre
Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square: 673 to 1,570
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square: 1,174
Please share a few (one to three) comments from your route:
The corn crop is really good, though there is more variability than I was anticipating. It’s apparent that weather during planting caused some emergence troubles, evidenced by the noticeable skips and blank stalks. There are some great yields, though there are some issues that could pull the overall average down. Soybean pods have been consistent but have not been eye popping, like in Indiana yesterday. We also know, though, that it takes less pods to produce a bushel in Illinois, so we have to keep that in mind.
Preliminary Route Report with Chip Flory, western Tour leader
What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?
Iowa: Districts 4 & 1—Caroll, Calhoun, Pocahontas, Buena Vista and Clay Counties
Corn yield range: 159.5 to 236.5 bu. per acre
Corn yield average: 201 bu. per acre.
Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square: 757 to 1,778
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square: 1,253
Please share a few comments from your route:
The last two bean fields that we were in had some blooms left on the plants and were also loaded with aphids—for the stage of development on those crops at the levels that we’re seeing, is concerning. We’ve been in fields with aphids before and know they are destructive. Although with the challenges this area has had, weed control is really good. The corn is still green, and plant health is good, but we’re starting to see some discolored spots and drowned out areas as we get closer to Clay County.
Preliminary Route Report with Mark Bernard, eastern Tour consultant
What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?
Illinois: Districts 1 & 4--Woodford, Marshall, Putnam, Bureau, Stark, Whiteside
Corn yield range: 144 to 252.0 bu. per acre
Corn yield average: 200 bu. per acre
Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square: 750 to 2,114
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square: 1,404
Please share a few comments from your route:
Corn was impressive, but variable just the same. I think we found some things out here that indicate flesh wounds, such as hail damage and fired lower leaves. However, we didn’t travel prime farmland in the state, and to come up with a 200 bu. average is pretty impressive. The soybean crop is solid, especially for the area traveled. There was some insect activity, though beneficial insects seemed to be keeping them in check rather well. Did note some SDS here and there, though likely won’t be a major problem due it’s late arrival.
ERS report: U.S. ag exports to Southeast Asia grow…but market share declines amid strong competition and lack of trade deals. U.S. agricultural exports to Southeast Asia have grown over the past decade, but the U.S. has seen a slight decline in market share due to strong competition from countries like China, Brazil, and Australia, according to a new report (link) from USDA’s Economic Research Service. These competitors benefit from more favorable tariffs and shorter shipping distances, placing U.S. exports at a disadvantage. The U.S. has only one free trade agreement in the region, with Singapore, compared to multiple agreements enjoyed by its rivals. Despite initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, the lack of broad tariff reductions continues to challenge U.S. growth in the region. Strengthening trade relationships and securing tariff reductions are seen as crucial for the U.S. to maintain and expand its market share in Southeast Asia.
Biden’s oil production surges despite ‘no more drilling’ pledge…faces legal and political complexities, Washington Post reports. Despite President Joe Biden’s campaign pledge of “no more drilling,” U.S. oil production has surged to record levels under his administration, the Washington Post reports (link). The complexity of stopping the oil boom is due to legal obligations, political pressures, and market demands, making it difficult for any president to significantly curb fossil fuel production. While Biden has pushed for renewable energy through policies like the Inflation Reduction Act, he has also had to navigate court challenges and political realities that have kept the oil industry thriving. This balancing act may continue to challenge future administrations, including a potential Harris presidency.
Of note: The Biden administration has now outpaced the Trump administration in approving permits for drilling on public lands, and the United States is producing more oil than any country ever has. Former President Donald Trump says if he was president, production would have been much higher and oil prices a lot lower.
The recent slump in lumber prices has led to significant challenges for the lumber industry…resulting in the closure of sawmills. Interfor Corporation, a major player in the lumber market, is one of the companies affected by these depressed prices. The company announced that it would indefinitely curtail operations at its sawmills in Meldrim, Georgia, and Summerville, South Carolina. The decline in lumber prices is largely attributed to a decrease in demand, which has been influenced by several factors. The U.S. housing market has seen a significant drop in affordability due to high home prices and elevated mortgage rates, making it financially challenging for consumers to purchase new homes or undertake renovations. This has resulted in reduced construction projects and a decline in lumber sales. Additionally, the home-renovation sector, which had previously seen growth during the pandemic, is now weakening, further impacting lumber demand.
Despite expectations for increased demand due to housing shortages and potential interest rate cuts, the industry’s response to boost production has led to an oversupply of lumber. This oversupply, coupled with weakened demand, has created a surplus of wood products, putting downward pressure on prices. As a result of these market dynamics, some sawmills, including those operated by Interfor, are being forced to reduce or halt production to balance the supply-demand equation. This is anticipated to help stabilize lumber prices in the short term, with a more significant recovery expected in the coming years as the market adjusts.
Canadian businesses are sounding the alarm…about the potential long-term economic damage if upcoming railway and port strikes proceed, potentially disrupting the country’s crucial trade networks. The strikes, which could begin Thursday, involve Canada’s two major railway companies — Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. — and could halt the movement of essential goods like fertilizer and jam container traffic across the country. The railways have warned that they will lock out more than 9,000 workers represented by the Teamsters union if a deal isn’t reached by Thursday morning. Simultaneously, dock foremen in British Columbia, who are responsible for operations at Canada’s busiest port in Vancouver, are also threatening to strike, pending a union vote.
Businesses are still reeling from last year’s 13-day dockworker strike in Vancouver, which disrupted CAD 10.7 billion ($7.8 billion) in trade and reduced Canada’s GDP by up to CAD 980 million ($713.8 million). The ongoing threat of strikes is further eroding confidence in Canada as a reliable trading partner. The situation is already causing delays and diversions of cargo, with some discretionary shipments being rerouted to U.S. ports like Long Beach and Los Angeles, leading to a loss of market share for Canadian ports.
The potential strikes are raising concerns across various industries. Potash supplier Canpotex Ltd. is particularly worried, noting that Canadian products could lose market share to competitors like Russia if rail and port operations are disrupted. The strikes could effectively paralyze the Port of Vancouver, where about two-thirds of cargo is moved by rail, impacting the flow of goods such as grain, potash, and coal.
The Canadian trucking industry cannot meet the domestic needs to keep critical supplies and daily goods flowing if a work stoppage happens at the country’s major railroads, according to the leader of the British Columbia Trucking Association. “There is no possibility trucking can fill the gap of any labor disruption on railways,” Dave Earl, president and CEO of the BCTA, said in an email to Trucking Dive. Despite the soft freight market plaguing the U.S. trucking industry, Canada’s trucking industry is “already running near capacity,” Earl said, adding that “road transportation cannot come close to replacing the movement of goods that will be displaced from railways in the event of a dispute.”
Trucking companies in Canada primarily transport smaller quantities of goods to locations not serviced by rail. They rely on railroads for moving bulk items such as coal, grain, and minerals. A disruption in rail services would not only affect the transport of these bulk goods but also impact the movement of larger items like vehicles and shipping containers, which are typically distributed to dealerships and distribution centers via rail.
Bottom line: While some domestic freight may continue to move by truck, the inability to transport larger shipments and restock distribution centers could lead to significant supply chain disruptions. This situation is not expected to result in increased business for the trucking sector; instead, it could create logistical challenges and shortages across various industries in Canada.