Evening Report | August 19, 2024

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Preliminary Route Report with Brent Judisch, western Tour consultant

What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?

South Dakota: District 9—Lincoln, Turner counties

Corn yield range: 131 bu. per acre to 199 bu. per acre

Corn yield average: 169.5 bu. per acre

Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square: 562 to 1608

Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square: 1,026

Please share a few (one to three) comments from your route:

The crop looked okay, but there were way more flooded areas than I anticipated. Estimating 5% of what we saw would be zeroed out. Several fields had very small soybeans behind corn that had been wiped out from flooding. On our route, areas between Lennox and Viborg had the worst flooding. There was one area that had some hail damage but didn’t seem to affect the bottom line much. I expected to see a more consistent crop.

Preliminary Route Report with Brian Grete, eastern Tour leader

What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?

· Ohio: Districts 4 & 5—Franklin, Champaign, Shelby, Miami counties

Corn yield range: 128.8 to 244 bu. per acre

Corn yield average: 192.6 bu. per acre

Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square: 930 to 1,976

Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square: 1,344.5

Please share a few (one to three) comments from your route:

Very good crops along my route today. Not a lot of disease pressure and recent rains over the weekend and overnight have set the crop up to finish strong. I was more impressed with soybeans than corn, due to inconsistencies in some fields. Overall, west central Ohio will have very good crops this year.

Preliminary Route Report with Chip Flory, western Tour leader

What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?

· South Dakota: District 9--Lincoln, Turner, Hutchinson, BonHomme, Yankton

Corn yield range:

South Dakota: 135 bu. per acre to 172 bu. per acre

Corn yield average: 161.1 bu. per acre

Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square: 453 to 1610

Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square: 1115.0

Please share a few comments from your route:

Corn maturity ranged from 75% dented to pollinated this week. There were a couple in the milk stage and a couple in dough stage, although if it wasn’t in the milk stage, it was at least starting to dent. The variation indicated there were obviously two different planting seasons along our route. There was very little disease, aside from two fields with Southern Rust, though it was fairly light and not likely to hurt yield. Weed control in soybeans was typically good, but there were a few fields that had very heavy weed pressure. A third of the bean fields had aphid pressure—roughly 20% of our samples were easily over the threshold.

Preliminary Route Report with Mark Bernard, eastern Tour consultant

What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?

Ohio: Districts 1, 2, 4 & 5—Delaware, Marion, Wyandot, Hardin, Allen, Putnam, Paulding

Corn yield range: 114 bu. per acre. 219 bu. per acre

Corn yield average: 173.0 bu. per acre

Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square: 352 to 2203

Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square: 1154

Please share a few comments from your route:

Maturity was all over the board. There was corn with the milk line just appearing to the blister stage. Some Tar Spot noted in Hardin County that was pretty severe. Weed and insect pressure was minimal. Some soybean fields had some weed pressure and lots of variation in maturity. Appears there were some later plantings due to heavy moisture during the normal planting season.

Corn conditions unchanged…USDA rated 67% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week, in-line with analysts’ expectations, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating increased one point to 11%.

USDA reported 97% of the crop was silking (97% average) and 74% was in dough stage (71%) and 30% was dented (26%).

Soybean conditions hold…USDA rated 68% of the crop as “good” to “excellent,” as analysts expected, while the “poor” “very poor” rating held at 8%.

USDA reported 95% of the soybean crop was blooming (95% average) and 81% was setting pods (80%).

Cotton conditions fade…USDA rated 42% of the cotton crop as “good” to “excellent,” down four points from last week, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating rose one point to 26%. USDA rated the Texas crop as 29% in the top two categories and 37% in the bottom two.

USDA reported 84% of the cotton crop was setting bolls (81% average) and 19% had bolls opening (17%).

Spring wheat conditions rise…USDA rated 73% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” up one point from last week and one point above analysts’ expectations. The “poor” to “very poor” rating held at 5%.

USDA reported 31% of the spring wheat crop was harvested, five points behind the five-year average.

Winter wheat harvest wrapping up…USDA reported the winter wheat crop was 96% harvested, with harvest finished in all states aside from Idaho (72%), Montana (75%), Oregon (89%), South Dakota (97%) and Washington (85%).

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will provide the keynote address on Aug. 23…at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Symposium (link). The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points Sept. 18 at the FOMC meeting, setting the stage for a gradual easing cycle that could extend into 2026. However, the exact path of the rate cuts will depend on economic data, particularly concerning whether the economy needs rescuing from a recession or merely a normalization of overly restrictive rates.

At recent Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposiums, the Federal Reserve has provided several key signals regarding its monetary policy:

2023 Symposium: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s commitment to reducing inflation to its 2% target. He indicated that while inflation had decreased from its peak, it remained too high, and the Fed was prepared to raise rates further if necessary. Powell highlighted that future monetary policy decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, considering the evolving economic data and outlook. He also reiterated that the Fed would maintain a restrictive policy stance until there was confidence that inflation was sustainably moving towards the target.

2022 Symposium: Powell delivered a hawkish speech, signaling the Fed’s strong commitment to fighting inflation. He stressed the importance of price stability as the bedrock of the economy and indicated that the Fed would use its tools forcefully to address inflation. Powell’s remarks at this symposium were noted for their impact on market expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s determination to manage inflationary pressures.

Of note: In 1989, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan participated, marking the first time a Fed chair had a formal role in the program. This set a precedent for future symposiums.

What about this year? “The Fed, we think, is likely to signal at Jackson Hole that a cut is likely at the next meeting, assuming that inflation progress holds,” said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America. But he added that the size of the cut, as well as the pace of future cuts, will depend on economic data. “So, we don’t think that the Fed will close the door on the possibility of doing larger cuts if it seems necessary — but it likely won’t do much to signal that that’s going to happen,” he said.