Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 6 3/4 cents to $4.57 3/4, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market saw selling pressure today amid rising concerns about U.S. trade relations with other major economies possibly negatively impacting foreign demand for corn. The U.S. this week set new sanctions on Venezuela and any country buying its crude oil, while next week sees new U.S. trade tariffs going into effect. The corn market got little support today from a weaker U.S. dollar index. The breakdown in wheat futures prices this week is also bearish for corn.
Pro Farmer South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier has lowered his Brazilian corn crop estimate 1 MMT, to 122 MMT. World Weather Inc. today said Safrinha corn planting “is winding down in much of Brazil. Mato Grosso received enough rain in recent weeks to support a good environment for establishment and early-season development. Recent rainfall in the other safrinha corn areas also improve development prospects, though much more rain is needed to support ideal long-term crop prospects.” Many areas in center-west and center-south Brazil were drier than usual in recent weeks and have deficient moisture. Rain will be scattered across the main production areas in Brazil during the coming week, which should start to improve the moisture profile, said World Weather.
Corn traders are looking ahead to next Monday’s USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports. The trade looks for around 94.4 million acres for U.S. corn-planting intentions. Monday will be one of the most important trading days of the year for the grain markets.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bull and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.70 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the March low of $4.42 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.62 and then at this week’s high of $4.66 1/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.55 1/4 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 5 1/2 cents to $10.01 3/4, closing nearer the session low. May soymeal closed $2.50 lower at $295.10, three-week low close. May soyoil rose 15 points to 42.30 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans extended lower in step with the grain complex as traders continue to remove risk as uncertainty rings across the marketplace amid trade unknowns and in anticipation of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. A test of the $10.00 level transpired as looming technical pressure at the 10- and 20-day moving average continued to sting any buying interest and exert downward pressure.
The marketplace will monitor President Trump’s proposal to levy fees on China-linked vessels, which was admonished by industry executives at the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) hearings on Monday. They noted such a move would hurt domestic ship operators, seaports, exporters and jobs, while the Trump administration says the feeds would curb China’s growing commercial and military dominance on the high seas and promote domestically built vessels. Agricultural exporters are already facing trouble booking ships beyond May due to uncertainty around the USTR plan.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean production forecast by 1 MMT, to 169 MMT, noting dryness in far southern growing areas and lower-than expected yields in Rio Grande do Sul. Cordonnier maintained his Argentine soybean forecast of 48 MMT.
Technical analysis: May soybeans edged to a near two-week low, pressured by the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $10.09 1/2 and $10.14 3/4, as bears continue to firmly grasp the near-term technical advantage. The camp’s next objective remains to secure a close below the March low of $9.91, with interim support serving at the psychological $10.00 level, then at $9.94 3/4. Conversely, bulls need to edge above resistance at $10.50, with transitional resistance serving at the 10, 20-, 100- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $10.09 1/2 to $10.37 3/4.
May meal futures ended the session below support at $2.96, marking the lowest close since March 4. Bears have the full near-term advantage, with sights set on scoring a close below the March low of $291.30, while bulls need to edge above the 10- and 20-day moving averages, which have converged around $300.50, though additional resistance at the 40-, 100- and 200-day moving averages will likely keep buying at bay in the near-term.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW futures fell a nickel to $5.43 1/4 and closed nearer session lows. May HRW futures sunk 8 3/4 cents to $5.69 1/4, near session lows. May spring wheat futures fell 3 3/4 cents to $5.88 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat futures led weakness today as conditions improved in the Plains over the past week, bucking expectations. State-level winter wheat condition ratings showed general improvement in the HRW crop over the past week. “Good” to “excellent” ratings improved one point in Kansas (49%) six points in Colorado (66%) and three points in Texas (31%). However, ratings dropped nine points in Oklahoma (37%). Conditions are expected to remain dry in the southwestern portion of HRW acres, says World Weather Inc. Some northern areas are dry too, but some relief is expected soon as precip is forecast. Drough is expected to worsen in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas and southeastern Colorado.
SovEcon trimmed its Russian wheat export forecast for 2024-25 to 40.7 MMT, down from its earlier estimate of 42.2 MMT. However, the consultancy increased its Russian wheat exports for 2025-26 to 39.1 MMT, up from 38.9 MMT. Even with Russian exports shrinking, demand for U.S. wheat has been pretty light. That is a testament more to weakening world imports. Imports for wheat on a global scale are seen as falling 20 MMT from 2023-24. The worlds top importers are working through some of their old stocks and are foregoing additional purchases. While that is currently depressing world wheat prices, it can not go on forever as stocks dwindle.
Technical analysis: May SRW futures saw persistent selling pressure today as bears cemented their hold on the near-term technical advantage. Further selling has bears targeting support at $5.36 3/4, which is reinforced by the March 4 contract low of $5.30. Resistance stands at the psychological $5.50 mark then the 10-day moving average at $5.55 3/4 on a bounce.
May HRW futures fell in tandem with SRW futures today, rendering the technical advantage to the bears. Modest support at $5.65 1/2 capped losses today, which is reinforced by support at $5.55, then $5.50. Bulls are looking to close prices above resistance at $5.86, the 40-day moving average, while additional resistance lies at $5.75 on the way.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton fell 28 points to 65.14 cents, marking the lowest close since March 5.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures extended lower for a seventh straight session as technical pressure continues to hover over prices along with weak demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, current trade uncertainties are creating a lingering risk-off environment in which traders are erring on the side of caution.
In South America, areas of far northern Argentina will receive some rain which will improve late season crop development after some areas were too dry for too long, according to World Weather Inc. In Brazil, rains are expected to impact Mato Grosso and neighboring areas soon, maintaining a favorable outlook for development. Bahia may start to receive needed rain later this week, although the amounts will be light initially. In other cotton growing areas of the world, Queensland and northeastern New South Wales are expecting too much rainfall from mid-week through mid-week next week, with some flooding expected. Some of the more advanced cotton could be strung out of its bolls, though the larger threat is boll rot and a general quality decline. Harvesting usually begins in April and lasts through May into June.
Technical analysis: May cotton continued to face technical headwinds, led by the 20-, 10- and 40-day moving averages, currently trading at 65.84 cents, 66.24 cents and 66.78 cents, which are each backed by the March high of 67.63 cents. Conversely, support at 64.94 cents has held consistently over the past two and half weeks, though bears continue to have sights set on a close back below the March 4 low of 62.54 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.